Polished Poker Vol. I Study Group

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rhombus

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Ok, but it's MW and what kind of hands would he be bluffing with?
.
If the call is 33% breakeven, should bluff to value combos be 33%.
~ If Bluff combos are over 33% then Call and if less Fold ????

e.g.
If they are bluffing 33% its breakeven and if 40% +1.60
EV = (.3333 * 16) – (.6666 * 8)
= (33.33% * 16.00) - (66.66% * 8.00) = -0.00

= (40.00% * 16.00) - (60.00% * 8.00) = 1.60

just need to know how many bluff combos he has and how many value combos

Value
------
Sets - 3 combos 22, 3 combos 44, 3 combos 88 (9)
2 Pair - 6 A2, 6 A4, 6 A8 (18)
Others - AA 1 combo, AK 8 combos (9)

so if he has 36 Value combos does that mean if he has 18 or more bluffs its a call????
 
Ian the Fish

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Alright, video review as promised:

https://youtu.be/BYe55HLSEBo

Forget how to embed youtube on here every time. If someone can, that's great... ty!
Wow, thanks, John! I wish I knew back then what I know now. Even before watching the video, I have had several talks / sweats with Bruce, who also emphasizes your point about donk-betting monotone boards.

If I remember correctly, I spent my entire time bank on that hand, the river in particular. There were 3 points of consideration for me facing the river bet:

1. The board has not paired (the number of hands that beat mine drastically shrinks).

2. The guy fires on all streets (from my experience, it is just THAT much less likely he is bluffing here).

3. He overbets the pot nearly 2x - shoves all-in (once again, at these stakes veeeeery rarely someone is capable of bluff-shoving).

After re-thinking this through and through, I felt that, he has way too many Ad and Qd in that spot. And I was not gonna find out paying that price.

Anyhow, the new me is definitely 3-betting that hand pre. Perhaps he was messing around with some weird QTo, which he would end up mucking to a 3-bet, thus effectively avoiding this situation entirely.

Huge thanks for the vid, man!
 
R

rhombus

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Alright, video review as promised:

https://youtu.be/BYe55HLSEBo

Forget how to embed youtube on here every time. If someone can, that's great... ty!
When i have done it before it was just to paste using the insert the URL button but doesnt seem to work now

BYe55HLSEBo


 
Aces2w1n

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Well done John on the videos.

Easy to listen to :) sound relaxed and very informative.

Definetly eager for more.


Thanks.
 
John A

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Wow, thanks, John! I wish I knew back then what I know now. Even before watching the video, I have had several talks / sweats with Bruce, who also emphasizes your point about donk-betting monotone boards.

If I remember correctly, I spent my entire time bank on that hand, the river in particular. There were 3 points of consideration for me facing the river bet:

1. The board has not paired (the number of hands that beat mine drastically shrinks).

2. The guy fires on all streets (from my experience, it is just THAT much less likely he is bluffing here).

3. He overbets the pot nearly 2x - shoves all-in (once again, at these stakes veeeeery rarely someone is capable of bluff-shoving).

After re-thinking this through and through, I felt that, he has way too many Ad and Qd in that spot. And I was not gonna find out paying that price.

Anyhow, the new me is definitely 3-betting that hand pre. Perhaps he was messing around with some weird QTo, which he would end up mucking to a 3-bet, thus effectively avoiding this situation entirely.

Huge thanks for the vid, man!

Yw... I like doing these, so I'm going to try and do as many as I can.

I just noticed your name was in there, I hope that's not a big deal. I assume not, but I'll try and conceal that in the future. I think a forum handle isn't a huge deal, assuming it's not the same as your poker ID's.

Any ways, I hope it was helpful and at least re-enforced some things for you.
 
John A

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Well done John on the videos.

Easy to listen to :) sound relaxed and very informative.

Definetly eager for more.


Thanks.

Thanks. Send more hands and I'll go over them. I'll see if I can get another one out today or tomorrow. I should be able to.

Also, if you know of any areas you can post and share, it's always appreciated. It always helps our brand long term also.
 
Talden

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G t u h h y yhyhbvyyhg but hit v yt? Hobby Beth's h u h that hvyvvyvyb buy th y t cut by yt? Huynh

Ok that was one hell of a butt text. But at least you know I'm following the thread. Lol
 
John A

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That's a double huh huh for me?

But glad you're following the thread.
 
John A

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And I need a new hand for a video. I'll do one tomorrow.
 
Aces2w1n

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not home atm

hand i was thinking was 9d 9h with board was AhKh2h
 
John A

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Well, if you have something let me know. I didn't do one today because no one posted anything. :)
 
John A

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25.4/19.8 , 9.1% 3-bet 44% agg 89 hands.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD & Database

NL Holdem $1(BB)
SB ($88.5)
BB ($117.18)
HJ ($132.45)
CO ($140.55)
HERO ($119.45)

Dealt to Hero 8:club: 8:diamond:

HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $3 (Rem. Stack: 116.45), SB Calls $2.5 (Rem. Stack: 85.5), BB Folds

Flop ($7.0) 6:club: 7:club: 5:heart:
SB Bets $5 (Rem. Stack: 80.5), HERO Raises To $15 (Rem. Stack: 101.45), SB Calls $10 (Rem. Stack: 70.5)

Turn ($37.0) 6:club: 7:club: 5:heart: A:heart:
SB Checks, HERO Checks

River ($37.0) 6:club: 7:club: 5:heart: A:heart: J:spade:
SB Bets $25 (Rem. Stack: 45.5), HERO Calls $25 (Rem. Stack: 76.45)
 
Ian the Fish

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25.4/19.8 , 9.1% 3-bet 44% agg 89 hands.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD & Database

NL Holdem $1(BB)
SB ($88.5)
BB ($117.18)
HJ ($132.45)
CO ($140.55)
HERO ($119.45)

Dealt to Hero 8:club: 8:diamond:

HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $3 (Rem. Stack: 116.45), SB Calls $2.5 (Rem. Stack: 85.5), BB Folds

Flop ($7.0) 6:club: 7:club: 5:heart:
SB Bets $5 (Rem. Stack: 80.5), HERO Raises To $15 (Rem. Stack: 101.45), SB Calls $10 (Rem. Stack: 70.5)

Turn ($37.0) 6:club: 7:club: 5:heart: A:heart:
SB Checks, HERO Checks

River ($37.0) 6:club: 7:club: 5:heart: A:heart: J:spade:
SB Bets $25 (Rem. Stack: 45.5), HERO Calls $25 (Rem. Stack: 76.45)
QJ / KJ of clubs would be very unfortunate, but quite likely, given the way it played out.

A smaller pair could also play like that. 44 with the added straight equity on the flop. Those would be my guesses.
 
Aces2w1n

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you cant be checking that Ace seriously?????

usually by betting the ace we continue the story we can have a set or 2pair and not worried about Ace. Or people see Ace and fold and then river we can make our hand still.

bet on the turn we wouldve ended the hand

i guess the call on the river you put him on a busted flush draw because we block straights.

opponents range is weak but do we beat it, i dont think so... but we dont need to with our perceived range

my guess opponent had QQ-99-TT or even low 2pair or bottom straight could have busted flush which u called and put him on it.... looks like a value bet on river
 
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Figaroo2

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Looking at his stats
25.4/19.8 , 9.1% 3-bet 44% agg 89 hands.

I would interpret this as a likely suited K Q J or T hand or very small pair.
Something like K8 K7 K6 K5, Q9 Q8 JT J9 T9
He is probably three betting most of his suited aces here. I don't think we need to be worried by an unsuited Ace either.
I don't see many small suited connectors off of those stats although I wouldn't totally eliminate them.

So when he leads he likely has connected with this board in some way, likely a draw and hopes that it misses an openers range here most of the time.
Certainly there are a lot of club combos out there that I think will bet like this.
I reckon we are at least 70% good here in which case I like the flop raise. It charges his draws and likely buys us a free card on the turn if we want to take it for pot control.
The turn ace doesn't affect the hand much so we can take the free card and try and hit our straight. By checking we open his bluffing range so we should be prepared to call most rivers.
The Js misses his hand most of the time so its a nuts or air river bet by the villian. If we thought we were good on the flop we are likely still good here 70%, easy call.
 
John A

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you cant be checking that Ace seriously?????

usually by betting the ace we continue the story we can have a set or 2pair and not worried about Ace. Or people see Ace and fold and then river we can make our hand still.

bet on the turn we wouldve ended the hand

i guess the call on the river you put him on a busted flush draw because we block straights.

opponents range is weak but do we beat it, i dont think so... but we dont need to with our perceived range

my guess opponent had QQ-99-TT or even low 2pair or bottom straight could have busted flush which u called and put him on it.... looks like a value bet on river

I'm not sure what you mean at all. What story are we trying to tell them? What hand do you think they are folding on the turn if they called the flop raise? Not seeing it, so I think pot controlling is more prudent at this point.

Any ways, we did a complete new version of drivehud so I was testing a lot of performance stuff and grinded some of of these tables. Not sure how interesting this hand is, but maybe more about turn bet sizing.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD & Database

NL Holdem $1(BB)
HJ ($105.5)
CO ($126.98)
BTN ($141.7)
SB ($137.55)
HERO ($103.5)
UTG ($101.8)

Dealt to Hero A:club: Q:diamond:

UTG Calls $1 (Rem. Stack: 100.8), HJ Folds, CO Raises To $5 (Rem. Stack: 121.98), BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Raises To $14.5 (Rem. Stack: 88.0), UTG Folds, CO Calls $10.5 (Rem. Stack: 111.48)

Flop ($32.5) Q:heart: 8:heart: 7:club:
HERO Bets $16.25 (Rem. Stack: 71.75), CO Calls $16.25 (Rem. Stack: 95.23)

Turn ($65.00) Q:heart: 8:heart: 7:club: Q:club:
HERO Bets $19.5 (Rem. Stack: 52.25), CO Calls $19.5 (Rem. Stack: 75.73)

River ($104.00) Q:heart: 8:heart: 7:club: Q:club: J:heart:
HERO $52.25 (allin) (Rem. Stack: 0.00), CO Calls $52.25 (Rem. Stack: 23.48)

HERO wins $205.5

Opponent had TT here. Was 35.5/25.4 11% 3-bet with 49% agg 78 hands.
 
John A

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Looking at his stats
25.4/19.8 , 9.1% 3-bet 44% agg 89 hands.

I would interpret this as a likely suited K Q J or T hand or very small pair.
Something like K8 K7 K6 K5, Q9 Q8 JT J9 T9
He is probably three betting most of his suited aces here. I don't think we need to be worried by an unsuited Ace either.
I don't see many small suited connectors off of those stats although I wouldn't totally eliminate them.

So when he leads he likely has connected with this board in some way, likely a draw and hopes that it misses an openers range here most of the time.
Certainly there are a lot of club combos out there that I think will bet like this.
I reckon we are at least 70% good here in which case I like the flop raise. It charges his draws and likely buys us a free card on the turn if we want to take it for pot control.
The turn ace doesn't affect the hand much so we can take the free card and try and hit our straight. By checking we open his bluffing range so we should be prepared to call most rivers.
The Js misses his hand most of the time so its a nuts or air river bet by the villian. If we thought we were good on the flop we are likely still good here 70%, easy call.

Yes, good analysis. You're forgetting some suited Ace combos, but it was good river bet sizing by him. I couldn't decide, but knew I was losing most of the time on the call.

He had Ac5c.
 
Figaroo2

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what is he doing?

This confused me enough just to call down, I was wondering if he was trying to see a cheap card on the turn, but as it turned out he didn't have any spades, so any thoughts on this hand and his ranges?
This guy was constantly chattering away in the chat box, stated he was a bit of a fish but knew enough to skin the drunks at the casino. Clearly 1 tabling.

Pacific, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

SB: $28.88 (57.8 bb)
BB: $24.75 (49.5 bb)- VPIP: 20, PFR: 9, 3B: 2, AF: 5.7, Hands: 114
UTG+2: $52.91 (105.8 bb)
Hero (MP1): $56.73 (113.5 bb)
MP2: $53.33 (106.7 bb)
MP3: $30 (60 bb)
CO: $117.86 (235.7 bb)
BTN: $50 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q
spade4.gif
Q
diamond4.gif

UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 5 folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) 2
spade4.gif
4
heart4.gif
9
spade4.gif
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.93, BB calls $1.93

Turn: ($7.11) T
club4.gif
(2 players)
BB bets $2, Hero calls $2

River: ($11.11) 8
heart4.gif
(2 players)
BB bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50
 
Last edited:
Figaroo2

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River sizing?

Bad passive reg, could we have made the turn $4 bigger?
A little bit of an action killer on the river. What would you do on the end here?
When he called the turn I started to think ace of spades with K/J/9 of spades might be out there.

Pacific, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players

SB: $32.25 (64.5 bb)
BB: $51.25 (102.5 bb)
MP1: $32.77 (65.5 bb)
MP2: $51.09 (102.2 bb) VPIP: 25, PFR: 7, 3B: 4, AF: 1.4, Hands: 518
MP3: $50.87 (101.7 bb)
Hero (CO): $50 (100 bb)
BTN: $124.18 (248.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A
club4.gif
Q
spade4.gif

MP1 folds, MP2 raises to $1.75, MP3 folds, Hero calls $1.75, 3 folds

Flop: ($4.25) T
spade4.gif
4
spade4.gif
J
diamond4.gif
(2 players)
MP2 bets $2.12, Hero calls $2.12

Turn: ($8.49) K
club4.gif
(2 players)
MP2 bets $4.24, Hero raises to $12.72, MP2 calls $8.48

River: ($33.93) 5
spade4.gif
(2 players)
MP2 checks,
Hero?
 
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

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We are repping 2 pairs... trips.... semi bluff on turn

what will fold better hands. kk qq jj tt and drawing hands will fold if we dont price them in.

bottom 2 pair will fold or a weak two pair.

if he has a strong hand he wouldnt check because the flush is coming theres a lot of dangerous rivers coming... he cant be checking with a vulnerable set or 2pairs.

also against you even more so his check cuz u wont be aggro like me.

plus no 3bet pre cancels his Ax range... we could have Axs also
 
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Aces2w1n

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This confused me enough just to call down, I was wondering if he was trying to see a cheap card on the turn, but as it turned out he didn't have any spades, so any thoughts on this hand and his ranges?
This guy was constantly chattering away in the chat box, stated he was a bit of a fish but knew enough to skin the drunks at the casino. Clearly 1 tabling.

Pacific, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

SB: $28.88 (57.8 bb)
BB: $24.75 (49.5 bb)- VPIP: 20, PFR: 9, 3B: 2, AF: 5.7, Hands: 114
UTG+2: $52.91 (105.8 bb)
Hero (MP1): $56.73 (113.5 bb)
MP2: $53.33 (106.7 bb)
MP3: $30 (60 bb)
CO: $117.86 (235.7 bb)
BTN: $50 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q
spade4.gif
Q
diamond4.gif

UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 5 folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) 2
spade4.gif
4
heart4.gif
9
spade4.gif
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.93, BB calls $1.93

Turn: ($7.11) T
club4.gif
(2 players)
BB bets $2, Hero calls $2

River: ($11.11) 8
heart4.gif
(2 players)
BB bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

small bet on turn but passive prolly okay.

river is a fold. he isnt afraid and has a set or 2pairs
 
Aces2w1n

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Bad passive reg, could we have made the turn $4 bigger?
A little bit of an action killer on the river. What would you do on the end here?
When he called the turn I started to think ace of spades with K/J/9 of spades might be out there.

Pacific, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players

SB: $32.25 (64.5 bb)
BB: $51.25 (102.5 bb)
MP1: $32.77 (65.5 bb)
MP2: $51.09 (102.2 bb) VPIP: 25, PFR: 7, 3B: 4, AF: 1.4, Hands: 518
MP3: $50.87 (101.7 bb)
Hero (CO): $50 (100 bb)
BTN: $124.18 (248.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A
club4.gif
Q
spade4.gif

MP1 folds, MP2 raises to $1.75, MP3 folds, Hero calls $1.75, 3 folds

Flop: ($4.25) T
spade4.gif
4
spade4.gif
J
diamond4.gif
(2 players)
MP2 bets $2.12, Hero calls $2.12

Turn: ($8.49) K
club4.gif
(2 players)
MP2 bets $4.24, Hero raises to $12.72, MP2 calls $8.48

River: ($33.93) 5
spade4.gif
(2 players)
MP2 checks,
Hero?

folding flop.

checkingriver we aint got the nuts and we cant handle a raise
 
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