PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed)
Hero (MP) ($2.16)
CO ($4.54)
Button ($2)
SB ($3.08)
BB ($4.15)
UTG ($3.87)
Preflop: Hero is MP with K
, K
UTG raises to $0.06,
Hero raises to $0.18,
3 folds, BB calls $0.16,
1 fold
Flop: ($0.43) 4
, 7
, Q
(2 players)
BB checks,
Hero bets $0.22,
BB raises to $3.97 (All-In), Hero calls $1.76 (All-In)
Turn: ($4.39) 6
(2 players, 2 all-in)
River: ($4.39) 4
(2 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: $4.39
| Rake: $0.15
Results below:
BB had A
, 3
(flush, Ace high).
Hero had K
, K
(two pair, Kings and fours).
Outcome: BB won $4.24
Here's my first submission to this group. I have stats on villain for 106 hands that show him low in just about every stat area EXCEPT Flop & River Aggression (AFq) & 3-betting in SB to steal attempts, where he is on the far right/high side.
Flop AFq = 62.5%
River AFq = 66.67%
SB 3-Bet Steal Attempt = 12.5%
This hand made me realize how powerful a suited A(small)x hand really is in the hands of someone willing to go over the top on the flop. It’s basically a coin toss against an overpair such as KK. With His As3s he’s a slight dog on the flop at (47%/53%) If I give him the top 2.5% of hands he’s a small favorite on the flop (58%/42%). I’m way behind ‘IF’ he has a set. He didn’t 3-bet preflop so QQ and AKs seem unlikely. So 44, 77, AQ, KQ, suited spades Broadway, and suited spades Ax seem like a more probable range which would have made him a favorite at 71%/29%, EXCEPT he’s not likely to shove with the really good hands, is he?
With his propensity to overplay the flop (Flop AFq), did I make the right choice to call?
As played, on the flop my pot adds (once he shoves) are 40% with my card equity of 53%. Unless I’ve miscalculated, the numbers are in my favor, but it still doesn’t feel right.