S
Sneaky Feet
Visionary
Silver Level
Well its actually the opposite, I think AK has a little too much equity against his turn range, but it loses most of it when it bets turn and is called.
No thats not really how it works, A is essentially exogenous for any given bet sizing, and we construct our strategy around it.
well if A is high enough we should bluff everything theoretically. eg, if he folds 90% on the river, to a half pot bet, we should half pot basically every bluff we can, and should turn hands with up to 75% equity into bluffs.
Its obviously a function of our bet sizing and i can go over optimal sizing if you want but the basic EV calcs for bet and check when they fold 90% on the river and we bet half pot
general calc is
EVbluff= foldfreq*P- (P+B)call frequency
where P is pot and B is bet
EVbet=.9*P-.1*1.5P
=.75P
EVcheck= .75P
Dont take that ABC breakdown as gospel btw i havent done the best job of outlining our motivations to bet because i was in a bit of a rush.
Well I thought I understood : ). I'm going to have to read this a few times to really get a grasp of it. Thanks again for your input Duggs it definitely gives me a lot to think about.
Edit
Actually I think I do understand.... AK's equity in this instance is variable depending on how villain plays. If villain bets and the bet is called the AK loses equity for having less outs and odds are further against it on the river. Also villains bet states that they have a hand that they believe will beat ours (bluff or not). If villain checks the turn equity raises because it shows us the villain believes they do not have a hand that will beat ours so we can also assume there is less chance of villain bluffing and has likely not made a hand. AK may be strong enough to win based on how the river falls and on villains potential range.
Maybe?
Last edited: