Thanks to Dakota-xx for posting question 2 on the StoxPoker forums, and inviting some of us to come here to post.
I make instructional videos for StoxPoker, and I am the author of a shareware program called ICM Explorer which you are welcome to download for free from
http://www.icmexplorer.com. ICM Explorer automates many complicated ICM calculations, and it is particularly helpful for questions 2 and 4. I might feature those questions when I make a video on ICM Explorer for StoxPoker.
Question #1:
The following scenario occurs in heads up play in a SnG.
$100 SnG, Blinds 250/500, No antes, Payouts: 1st, $450; 2nd, $270
Hero is BB with 8775 chips
Villain is SB with 4725 chips
Pre Flop: (750 chips) Hero is BB with Xx Xx
Villain goes all-in for 4475, Hero ???? (4225 to call)
Assume that villain doesn't have any glaring leaks, and is solid. We're getting pot odds of 1.24:1 or 45%. We know our opponent shoves any pair, any ace, and KQ in this spot. Which hands can we call villain's shove with?
A. 33
B. 88
C. 76o
D. A9o
If your opponent pushes only that range, then 33 is a close call, and both A9o and 88 are clear calls, while 76o is a clear fold.
However, you should expect a solid opponent to push much wider than that. For 10 bb, the Nash equilibrium pushing range is about 56.6%. 33 is only a slight favorite against a random hand, but since you only need 45% equity, it's a clear call against such a wide range. While some good players don't know that they are supposed to shove some hands like 53s, a good player should be shoving over 40%, which would still make 33 a clear call.
Question #2:
The following scenario occurs on the bubble of a SnG.
$100 SnG, Blinds 100/200, No antes, Payouts: 1st, $450; 2nd, $270; 3rd, $180
Folder is UTG with 3600 chips
Hero is BTN with 800 chips
Folder 2 is SB with 4000 chips
Villain 2 is BB with 5100 chips
Pre Flop: (300 chips) Hero is BB with J♣ J♥
UTG folds, Hero goes all in for 800, SB folds, BB flips over A♦ 6♦ and asks you if you want a call. He assures you he will do whatever you say, and the floor man says that whatever you tell him to do is binding. You reply with:
A. I have you dominated, call!
B. I am a scared little girl, please fold.
Dakota-xx quoted my response above. It's a great use of the "Steal or Induce?" button of ICM Explorer. A more common use is when you are considering whether to make a small raise (or limp) or to push for perhaps 12 bb. You might expect that an aggressive opponent will rarely call, and will resteal with a wider range than he will call a push. Do you want the action or not? As long as you plan to call the resteal, you can ignore hands like AK that your opponent might have, since all of the money is going in either way. You might expect that the marginal resteals of an aggressive opponent might be hands like QTs and A2s. If you have enough equity against these hands, then you want the action, and you should make a small raise to provoke a resteal. If you don't have enough equity, then you should push to take away the option to resteal.
Near the bubble, you should be inducing action with fewer hands, since you often don't want to get all-in even as a 2:1 favorite. This comes from two things:
- Rational risk aversion from the payout structure which rewards survival much more than in other tournament structures, and
- The blinds are often large compared with your stack, so stealing the blinds looks attractive compared with gambling to double up.
Question #3:
The following scenario occurs during the rebuy period of a MTT.
$100 MTT, Blinds 10/20, No antes, Top Heavy Payout Structure
Everyone has equal (1500) chip stacks
Pre Flop: (30 chips) Hero is BB with Xx Xx
UTG Raises to 1500 with A♣ 9♦. Folds to you in the BB.
Given your magical read on UTG, what hands can you call this shove with?
A. 2♣ 2♦
B. 2♥ 7♠
C. T♣ T♠
D. Q♥ T♠
In that tournament situation, you need about 50% equity to call, so you should call with 22 and TT.
In practice, you don't know that the UTG player has A9o instead of 66, and it's usually a huge mistake to make calls like this with 22.
Question #4:
The following scenario occurs on the bubble of a SnG.
$100 SnG, Blinds 100/200, No antes, Payouts: 1st, $450; 2nd, $270; 3rd, $180
Folder is UTG with 3500 chips
Villain 1 is BTN with 4000 chips
Folder 2 is SB with 3500 chips
Hero is BB with 2500 chips
Pre Flop: (300 chips) Hero is BB with Q♦ J♦
UTG folds, Villain raises to 500, SB folds, Hero goes all in for 2500
If villain calls with a range of AT+, KJ+, and 66+, how often does villain have to fold for this move to be better than folding ourselves?
A. 74%
B. 63%
C. 55%
D. 32%
This is another problem ICM Explorer is designed to answer, this time using the "Semibluff?" button.
First, QJs has 36.141% equity against that range according to PokerStove, coming from 35.61% wins and 1.06% ties. Make sure to double the 0.53% equity from ties reported by PokerStove.
Now, enter the stacks, blinds, and initial raise into ICM Explorer. Set the bettor to the BB, and caller to the BTN (raiser). Set the bet to something large, 2000 or greater. Set the win% when called to the equity reported by PokerStove (either 36.141 or 0.36141 would work). You don't have to do anything to the get-called percentage, but if you want to duplicate these results, use 37%. Then click the "Semibluff?" button.
Effective bet size: 2000 on top of calling 300.
Probability of winning when called: 0.36141
Probability of getting called: 0.37
Give up: 2300 chips, 0.193
Successful steal: 3100 chips, 0.2365
Failed bluff, lose: 0 chips, 0
Failed bluff, win: 5100 chips, 0.3247
Ties count as 63.85% of a win.
Failed bluff, average: 0.1174
Semibluff, average: 0.1924
Calls allowed at 0.3614 equity:
36.5%
Equity needed at 63% folds: 0.3664
So, it looks like you can't quite resteal with 63% folds, but that's very close to the break-even point.
In fact, your equity should be set a bit higher than 36.141%, since your ties are better than half of a win. Ties are 63.85% as good as a win, so winning 35.61% with 1.06% ties is as good as 36.28% wins. That's still not quite enough to make it right to resteal with at most 63.0% folds.
Since the BTN is calling your resteals with about an 11.3% range, you can profitably resteal if he is raising more than about a range of 11.3% * (1/0.37) ~ 31%.
In fact, 31% is not so wide for button raise, and I routinely resteal with hands like this against players with a high steal rate.
just kidding about the folding (but for sure the small blind has to put pressure on you with any 2 if you were to fold.
