Dara O'Kearney (Satellite Specialist) - Ask Me Anything about satellites/knockouts

[Dara OKearney]

Hi I am curious about your thoughts on the following hand....

Hero 150K stack in sb
Villain 100K stack on button. He is a young Pro who is playing aggressive
Blinds 1200-2400 with bb ante

Villain raises 4800 and first to enter pot.
Hero makes it 11k
Villain Calls.

A96 rainbow flop.

Hero checks.
Villain Checks.

Turn Js. Hero bets 17k. Villain calls.

River 4s. Hero checks. Villain bets 30K. Hero folds.

I was very close to calling. Did not love the way I played the hand. Thoughts?

Hi,

Somehow missed this one til now. What's your actual hand here?

 

[moshie]

near seat in satalite

With 14 players left I have less than 10BBs. Only 8 will get a seat . What are my best options pre flop? Putting it all in 88 99 or 10 10 and taking a coin flip? Also if I find AJ suited or better? When this close how can I avoid a coin flip to move up?

 

[Kdk1232]

I always fold a 3 Pre flop is that a bad fold Or should I play it

 

[sn0112]

General

Dear Dara,

I am sure I speak on behalf of all members in thanking you for your candid and detailed replies so far.

At age 38, I am a relative latecomer to Poker. I have a day job in IT and there is something in the analytical, mathematical side of Poker that appeals - I have clearly caught the poker bug and am reading, watching, and listening to everything I can get my hands on.

In the few months I have been playing I have lost a couple of bankrolls (in cash games) before deciding to reduce my exposure by entering satellites and tournaments. However, I was scratching around trying to figure out the best way to go about this.

A few days ago. I came across your book completely by chance when reading Amazon reviews of another and I think it will greatly accelerate my learning.

I would appreciate if you can answer some more questions. Apologies in advance for the length of my post.

1) Conventional wisdom - I have seen many pros say that satellites are a waste of time. Is this because they are successful cash game players who think it hinders their hourly ROI, or is there another reason for this?
2) ROI - do you measure your ROI in terms of the value of the target ticket won, or do you measure it in winnings from the target tournament itself?
3) Overlap – would you recommend entering satellites that overlap with the target tournament, or is it too much of a disadvantage to gain a late tournament entry?
4) Micro stakes – how can we adapt strategy at the micro stakes where people are not always folding to shoves (presumably because they are not playing optimally/unaware of ICM)?
5) Tournament $ - in tournament $ contests the prize structure is not always flat. Can we still use the satellite strategy or should they be treated as normal tournaments?
6) Results – I have been in some promising situations (several final tables, chip leader deep in a tournament etc.). How can we go about making the next step and converting promising positions into tangible results?
7) Are there ever any early indications that poker is just not for you? At my age I can only handle a limited number of pursuits

Many thanks,

 

[Dara OKearney]

Thanks for the thread. Bought the book recently. Very interesting read.

Once you had the basics of the game understood sufficiently to beat home games/local pubs etc, what did you find pushed your game on to more advanced levels - peer discussions, own hand analysis, pressing for more knowledge on the maths & equity, volume/experience?

Interesting question. All of the above certainly helped: if I had to pick one that helped more than the rest I'd say volume/experience. I played a ton online in my first few years (60-80 hours a week).

Thanks for your question!

 

[Dara OKearney]

Dara,

You have mentioned a few times you used to enjoy the splash format. Not sure if it is a recent change now, but registration ends 35 minutes before the rebuy ends.

If very short stacked in this 35 min period with very high blinds, a rebuy can be as little as 1 Big blind, or even less. Is it appropriate to keep rebuying to get to the top up? Is survival alone sufficient or do you need a bit of a stack to go with the add on/top up?

I have been rebuying, but if you cant get any run this can add up. My instinct is that there is often a huge amount of dead money, say 40 runners left out of 170, so its worth it, but is it?

And if in the 35 min of survival, do we seek to survive with min number of buy ins? or should we double rebuy in your experience?

Hi again,

The splash format (or 3x as they were originally called) is probably the format I've made the most money in online. When they were introduced initially, most pros wrote them off as pure gambling and therefore unbeatable, but I quickly realised otherwise, and for a long period I was making about 8 buyins per game over a large sample size. This might seem impossible but the reason for it was that most people thought you should drop out at a certain point, and did so. In actual fact, the biggest mistake you can make is dropping out voluntarily at any point, thereby missing out on the addon (which at the time was 10x starting stack/rebuys). Essentially what was happening was most of the field was dropping out before addon, thereby relinquishing their chances of cashing, and the buyins they has contributed to the prize pool was then divided between those of us who didn't drop out. This was what made astronomical ROIs possible.

Today, the biggest mistake you can make is still dropping out. This is counter intuitive because it feels like you're throwing good money after bad continually rebuying to get to the addon. When you find yourself short in this scenario, optimal strategy is to use your fool time before folding (or shoving/calling) every hand, to minimise the number of buyins you need. When I played them full time I worked out that on average I did 10.5 buyins per tournament. Therefore when I was training people to play them I told them not to think of, say, a $10 splash as a $10 tournament (if you do you'll get tilted when you continually have to rebuy) but rather as (on average) a $105 tournament where you pay in $10 instalments.

Never double rebuy. The objective when you're short is simply to get to the add-on with as few rebuys as possible.

Hope this helps

 

[Dara OKearney]

I play these a lot hyper turbos with 16 player 2xshootout 2 seats awarded

When it's winner take all, there's no ICM so strategy is just normal cash game strategy (take any plus Chip EV spot)

 

[Dara OKearney]

Just finished reading the whole thread very great stuff! If I could get one question in it would have to be this. ICM it’s a concept that I think I understand but I know I don’t really. What is the best way to work on understanding and hopefully mastering this concept?

Run a lot of spots in one of the preflop solvers like Holdem Resources Calculator or ICMizer and you;'ll start to internalise patterns to inform your intuition in game and make better decisions on the fly.

Thanks for your question, hope this helps. I also wrote a couple of blogs post at my blog (just search for ICM there).

 

[Dara OKearney]

I am posting this on all the Ask Me Anything forum to try to see if there is a consensus or difference of opinion among the pros answering questions on CardsChat. I guess for this one any difference between satellites and MTTs would be useful.
*********************************


I have been looking for information about considerations for re-buys, add-ons, late registration. Almost all comments in forums seem to be in favor of add-ons, with logic like "Why would you give your opponents an advantage over you?"

I will preface this with my bias. I don't like the idea of any of them and would prefer if none of them existed. If I had my way every tournament would be a freeze-out, but that based on a style preference. I feel that you can apply a little more pressure if the villain can't re-buy ad nauseum.

I understand that re-buys and add-ons help the casino meet guarantees. (It is frustrating when you think you have found a bargain tournament, and re-buys are filling out that guarantee without increasing the prize pool.)

I understand that in live tournaments re-buys, and add-ons make sense because you have to travel to the casino and getting knocked out and going home empty handed sucks.

I play exclusively online. There is always another tournament.

Re-buys only make sense to me if you are knocked out in the very early rounds. Any later than that and you are just buying into another tournament at a significant disadvantage. This amounts to late registration, which only makes sense to me if you think you have a monstrous edge, and it is worth your while to save a little time by not playing the early rounds.

Add-ons are a weird concept to me. You are effectively chopping your return on investment in half. If the add-on, significantly improves your odds of winning, I can see where it might make sense, however, the ones I have played don't usually have a huge amount of chips; usually x1-x2 the chips of the initial buy-in. A couple levels and it will be insignificant. For it to be useful you have increase it exponentially, if you are willing to play that way, it may be more useful to attack peoples' add-on with your short stack.

This got a little verbose. It seems that re-buys, add-ons, and late registration are -EV options, because they diminish your ROI. They are only useful with regard to time considerations, or if the tournament has some value to you other than pure monetary reward.

Am I being naive here? Is there a magic formula for determining when to get an add-on?Or should I just keep going for extreme long shots by refusing re-buys and add-ons?

Thanks!

Hi, thank you for your questions and thoughts.

I share your preference for pure freezeouts. Freezeouts feel the fairest intuitively, and introducing rebuys or add-ons introduce other "non poker" considerations that boil down to understanding stack equities which inevitably means players who don't are at a disadvantage.

That said, if you are entering them, you don't want to be one of those disadvantaged players, so it's worth putting some time effort study and thought into understanding equities. Unfortunately there's no magic rule for all situations (it's always an ICM calculation, and usually a fairly complicated one), but there are some general guidelines I can give here as a starting point:
(1) In a situation where you have the option to buy additional chips at the same rate as the initial buyin/starting stack, it is NEVER correct to do so (because doubling your stack doesn't not double your chances of winning a seat). So for example if starting stack is 10k and buyin is $100, and you can buy another 10k chips for another $100, it is a mistake to do so (unless forced to because you run out of chips completely)
(2) Most add-on tournaments recognize this and incentivize you to add on by offering more chips at a lower rate. For example, if starting stack and rebuys are 10k chips for $100, they might offer an add-on of 20k chips for $100. In these cases it is almost always (I'll get onto the exceptions in a minute) a big mistake NOT to take the add-on
(3) Furthermore, in cases like in (2) where the add-on offers more chips, it is a major mistake to drop out before the add on (essentially this means you are now making the mistake mentioned in (2) ahead of time), so if you lose all your chips, you are forced to rebuy to avoid this mitake
(4) The exception to adding on is when you have so many chips you already have a huge chance of winning a seat, and adding on doesn't increase that chance enough to compensate for the cost. To take an extreme example to illustrate the point, if you're playing satellite where 1 in 10 wins a seat, and starting stack is 10k with a 20k add-on, then the average when the bubble bursts will most likely be in the 150-200k range. If you get to the add-on with, say, 400k in chips, you are almost certain to win a seat and shouldn't add on, as the extra 20k doesn't make much difference to your chances.

As for late regging, in a satellite there are both positives and negatives. We go into these in detail in the book, but the major positives are an ICM benefit to entering later, and in rebuy/addons reducing the risk of being forced to rebuy before add-on. The major negative is you don't get the chance to play early against weak splashy players who may be the first to bust.

In a PKO or any bounty tournament (these are the subject of my second book coming soon) it is ALWAYS a mistake to late reg after even one player has been eliminated, and the more players that are eliminated the bigger the mistake.

Hope this helps!

 

[Chicungulla]

is it profitable to play multiple satellites for one tournament? What strategies do you use to classify? And finally, what type of satellite is better?

 

[tuku222]

Hello Dara, welcome to Cardschat !!!!
GREETINGS FROM ARGENTINA !

 

[1sunchin]

Hi Dara!

Thanks for thread and GL on tables!

I love to play micro(under $2) SnG Sats on PS (16 players, Hyper-Turbo, 2x shooter, 2+ seats) and want to ask you about optimal game in those sats.

And are there any differences for the optimal game in such sats for MTT and KO tournaments?

 

[jirasuonna]

Hi, thank you for your questions and thoughts.

I share your preference for pure freezeouts. Freezeouts feel the fairest intuitively, and introducing rebuys or add-ons introduce other "non poker" considerations that boil down to understanding stack equities which inevitably means players who don't are at a disadvantage.

That said, if you are entering them, you don't want to be one of those disadvantaged players, so it's worth putting some time effort study and thought into understanding equities. Unfortunately there's no magic rule for all situations (it's always an ICM calculation, and usually a fairly complicated one), but there are some general guidelines I can give here as a starting point:
(1) In a situation where you have the option to buy additional chips at the same rate as the initial buyin/starting stack, it is NEVER correct to do so (because doubling your stack doesn't not double your chances of winning a seat). So for example if starting stack is 10k and buyin is $100, and you can buy another 10k chips for another $100, it is a mistake to do so (unless forced to because you run out of chips completely)
(2) Most add-on tournaments recognize this and incentivize you to add on by offering more chips at a lower rate. For example, if starting stack and rebuys are 10k chips for $100, they might offer an add-on of 20k chips for $100. In these cases it is almost always (I'll get onto the exceptions in a minute) a big mistake NOT to take the add-on
(3) Furthermore, in cases like in (2) where the add-on offers more chips, it is a major mistake to drop out before the add on (essentially this means you are now making the mistake mentioned in (2) ahead of time), so if you lose all your chips, you are forced to rebuy to avoid this mitake
(4) The exception to adding on is when you have so many chips you already have a huge chance of winning a seat, and adding on doesn't increase that chance enough to compensate for the cost. To take an extreme example to illustrate the point, if you're playing satellite where 1 in 10 wins a seat, and starting stack is 10k with a 20k add-on, then the average when the bubble bursts will most likely be in the 150-200k range. If you get to the add-on with, say, 400k in chips, you are almost certain to win a seat and shouldn't add on, as the extra 20k doesn't make much difference to your chances.

As for late regging, in a satellite there are both positives and negatives. We go into these in detail in the book, but the major positives are an ICM benefit to entering later, and in rebuy/addons reducing the risk of being forced to rebuy before add-on. The major negative is you don't get the chance to play early against weak splashy players who may be the first to bust.

In a PKO or any bounty tournament (these are the subject of my second book coming soon) it is ALWAYS a mistake to late reg after even one player has been eliminated, and the more players that are eliminated the bigger the mistake.

Hope this helps!

Thanks! This a more compelling argument than I expected. I am going to have to reconsider my position. I appreciate you taking the time to answer this properly. I saw that you have a 2000 buy-in rule for satellites. I am setting aside a slush fund in my bankroll for that. I will be sure to pick up your books once that gets a bit closer.

 

[Dara OKearney]

Hi Dara, I played two satellites yesterday for the first time and I got close to getting tickets but I messed in a couple spots tangling up in a couple big pot confrontations.

I’m fairly good at huge MTTs and pretty aggressive as a player. Satellites are different in that first and tenth place are no different so I’m working on surviving with chips. For someone who often quickly amasses chips and is used to aggressive tournament play, what do you recommend doing to survive til the bubble?

Hi,

Very good question. The ability to amass chips is a very useful skill in any tournament, including satellites, but the thing to remember is that it doesn't matter how many chips you have when the bubble bursts, you still get the same prize. It's important to focus on the target stack you need (usually about 70% of what the average will be when the bubble bursts) and as you approach that take the foot off the gas. In particular, remember you need much better equity than normal when you invest a significant number of chips in a pot.

For example, if you have 70% of the target stack, and you're face an all in, whereas in a cash game or normal tournament you'd just work out pot odds offered and decide if you thought you had enough equity to call, in a satellite, if you call and lose your chances of a seat go from 70% to 0, and if you call and win go from 70 to (close to) 100%, so the downside is way more than the upside, and mathematically you need 70% equity to call as a result.

As the bubble approaches, it becomes less about the target stack and more about where you are in relation to other stacks. You need to be able to do COC (chance of cashing) calculations on the fly at the table (this is covered in depth in the book).

Good luck!

 

[Dara OKearney]

when is the best time to play in a tournament? morning, afternoon or at night?

Online peak time tends to be European evening time. In general, you want to play when recreationals are playing, so evenings and weekends.

Good luck!

 

[Dara OKearney]

hello my name is luan i would like to know how do i win satellites hyper turbo? I always play at the very beginning but I crash in the final tournament and blow up the satellite.

In hyper turbos the edge is all pretty much in the end game. You need to have your shoving and calling ranges down perfect so either study the relevant chapters in "Poker Satellite Strategy" or run a lot of simulations in Holdem Resources Calculator.

Thanks for your question and good lick!

 

[noLatenzy]

Hi Dara, thanks for your help.
I want to start playing MTT's, but i'm not sure if the properly is to play regular tournaments or satellites. I have a small bankroll (about $20) and i don't want to bust. Any suggestion?

 

[Luan]

In hyper turbos the edge is all pretty much in the end game. You need to have your shoving and calling ranges down perfect so either study the relevant chapters in "Poker Satellite Strategy" or run a lot of simulations in Holdem Resources Calculator.

Thanks for your question and good lick!

ok but at the moment i'm out of resources for research, and i'm using the push fold method when i'm under 20bbs and they are working out, will i continue with this strategy?

 

[Dara OKearney]

With 14 players left I have less than 10BBs. Only 8 will get a seat . What are my best options pre flop? Putting it all in 88 99 or 10 10 and taking a coin flip? Also if I find AJ suited or better? When this close how can I avoid a coin flip to move up?

With this kind of stack you can't really avoid a flip but you can minimise your chances of being in one by:
(1) Shoving as much as possible in late position where you have less players to get thru
(2) Shoving into stacks you can hurt. A player with 20 big blinds will likely fold a lot of hands in the big blind that a player with 50 won't
(3) Shove blocker type hands (Ax and to a lesser extent Kx) to minimise the chances of someone behind having a hand they can call with

We talk a lot more specifics in the book but those are the main points.

Good luck!

 

[Polytarp]

Hi Dara,

On PStars playing the micro SpinGo games, I would usually collect about 10 each of the $11 and $22 tickets before playing satellites for larger games with them. (These are the $2.75 games and past $4 SCOOP tickets.)
My questions:
How far up the satellite chain should I play? Should I try to play for $109 tickets or should I try to final table some of these smaller MTT's first?

There's no substitute for playing against solid players and I'd like to identify what solid players do when I'm in the mix. I've played in a few satellites where I bested some "revolving star" sharkscope rated players. Could you suggest satellite games which would provide a challenging proving ground of my ability or inability? My goal is to play in at least one $10k entry this year.

Cheers and thanks!

 

[Mateo]

Interested to hear your thoughts on my satty.

20 get tickets, 25 left, 6 max hyper turbo with 1 min blinds so 10 - 25 all have <5bb.

I'm in BB, with a 2BB stack, get dealt 10 3 off. A lot of tanking goes on, leaving 21 players by the time SB shoves on me (3.5bb). With thenthe tanking I will be all in next hand regardless, and be in 21/21 so I have to win the next flip basically.. Do I call or fold?

I folded here, next hand got Q4o and lost to the BBs K6s. Busted in 21... It hurt haha.
My thoughts on folding are that I am likely to get a better hand, but it is possible more people might play the next hand...

 

[Dara OKearney]

I always fold a 3 Pre flop is that a bad fold Or should I play it

Ace three isn't exactly a great hand but there are situations even in satellites when it should be played. It's always situational

 

[Dara OKearney]

Dear Dara,

I am sure I speak on behalf of all members in thanking you for your candid and detailed replies so far.

At age 38, I am a relative latecomer to Poker. I have a day job in IT and there is something in the analytical, mathematical side of Poker that appeals - I have clearly caught the poker bug and am reading, watching, and listening to everything I can get my hands on.

In the few months I have been playing I have lost a couple of bankrolls (in cash games) before deciding to reduce my exposure by entering satellites and tournaments. However, I was scratching around trying to figure out the best way to go about this.

A few days ago. I came across your book completely by chance when reading Amazon reviews of another and I think it will greatly accelerate my learning.

I would appreciate if you can answer some more questions. Apologies in advance for the length of my post.

1) Conventional wisdom - I have seen many pros say that satellites are a waste of time. Is this because they are successful cash game players who think it hinders their hourly ROI, or is there another reason for this?
2) ROI - do you measure your ROI in terms of the value of the target ticket won, or do you measure it in winnings from the target tournament itself?
3) Overlap – would you recommend entering satellites that overlap with the target tournament, or is it too much of a disadvantage to gain a late tournament entry?
4) Micro stakes – how can we adapt strategy at the micro stakes where people are not always folding to shoves (presumably because they are not playing optimally/unaware of ICM)?
5) Tournament $ - in tournament $ contests the prize structure is not always flat. Can we still use the satellite strategy or should they be treated as normal tournaments?
6) Results – I have been in some promising situations (several final tables, chip leader deep in a tournament etc.). How can we go about making the next step and converting promising positions into tangible results?
7) Are there ever any early indications that poker is just not for you? At my age I can only handle a limited number of pursuits

Many thanks,

Hi fellow latecomer (I was 42 when I took up the game),

(1) There are different reasons why pros sometimes say satellites are a waste of time. Sometimes it's the one you give, other times it's the buyin of the satellite is too low to give a decent hourly. It can also be they simply don't realise how big an edge is possible in satellites (many mistakenly think because there's no big first prize high ROIs are not possible). Sometimes they're just not very good at satellites (it's a very different skillset from regular mtts and many top mtters who just play their "normal game" do very badly as a result)
(2) Value of ticket in relation to satellite buyin. For example, if I play $100 satellites to $1k, and on average win a ticket 12.5% of the time, my ROI is +25%
(3) It's a tradeoff. As a general rule, the nearer a satellite is to the target tournament the softer it is (because the better satellite players will tend to win tickets in earlier satellites scooping them out of the pool, and many better players will prefer to skip the last satellite even if they haven't satellited in already preferring to go straight into the target tournament). Late regging isn't as big a disadvantage as people think (there's actually an ICM benefit to late regging) unless it's a bounty tournament (never late reg those) so generally there are more plusses than minuses to playing the last satellite
(4) This is covered at length in the "Adjusting to imperfection" section of "Poker Satellite Strategy". The short version is we tighten our shoving ranges when facing opponents who will call us too wide
(5) It depends on the exact payouts but it's usually a hybrid between normal strategy and satellites. The flatter the structure generally the closer it will be to a satellite
(6) After every deep run go back and analyse all your endgame decision and see what you can learn from to improve next time you find yourself deep
(7) Poker is a game that rewards hard work and discipline. The major reasons why people ultimately fail are usually related to these or mental leaks. For example if you find yourself tilting that could be a sign poker is not for you. Otherwise, pretty much everything can be learned. In our latest episode of my podcast "The Chip Race" Anton Wigg (one of the world's top players) admitted to being a slow learner. But he got there through persistence.

Hope this helps and good luck!

 

[sn0112]

Hi fellow latecomer (I was 42 when I took up the game),

(4) This is covered at length in the "Adjusting to imperfection" section of "Poker Satellite Strategy". The short version is we tighten our shoving ranges when facing opponents who will call us too wide

Hello Dara. Thank you for your detailed responses. I bought the book on Amazon a couple of days ago and am slowly studying it and taking notes. It's very well written and educational. I look forward to reading this section.

 

[Bot_385984]

DYMs

Hi Dara,

Thanks for the AMA - loads of great stuff here.

I’m fairly new to poker but I’m having moderate success building a bankroll playing double-your-money SnGs at the micros. What I’m wondering, given the structure of DYMs, is how much satellite strategy can be incorporated into them? My guess is that the crossover is quite big, given the min cash aspect of DYMs but I’d really appreciate your thoughts, particularly on where strategy will diverge. Cheers!