Hi Dara,
I'll apologise for the amount of questions.
With the advent of so many super late reg events accross almost all the networks I thought I'd ask you some questions.
Assuming all things being equal, is there any bad reason to max late reg a non PKO tournament?Particularly those that allow late reg until 10bb. Immediately our stack is worth more and with some super long late reg sites like 888 or GG we can almost stall very close to the money. Could we theoretically be very profitable regging up to 1bb ? Is the goal of max late regging as we have much less than average to min cash and then see what happens from there?
Is max late regging a higher variance route?
With the above sites with super late reg are we better off just late regging because our equity of players busting is shared by even those max late regging?Also, do big stacks suffer by long late reg as they can't open as wide etc ?
If we can max late reg a tournament for 5bb where either we can be 22/22 with 20 paid or 88 of 88 with 80 paid, which is better with all other things being equal(min cash, rough stack distribution) ? Is the 80 paid a better option with high icm?
Is it a good or bad thing being placed with all the new max late reg entrants on a new table (assuming they don't stall)? Would you prefer to be on a table with greater stacks?
Thanks
Hi,
These are excellent questions. To answer them:
(1) There's no real downside to max late regging. The ICM value of your chips is worth more than at the start (and therefore more than your buyin). This is largely down to you having a greater chance of min cashing, a better than at the start chance of a decent cash, and the same chance of winning (from a purely ICM point of view). The only drawback is in very soft tourneys the weaker players may punt before you have a chance to win their chips but the ICM benefit of late regging and the inherent advantages of being short (stealing fold equity from bigger stacks to have to play against each other) is usually far greater than this
(2) The variance question is a complicated one. If everyone was equally skilled I think max late regging actually reduces variance, and the additional ICM edge should also do this, but if for example you're a significantly better player 100 bigs deep than ten, this might negate that
(3) At sites with very late late reg you're better off doing that. Players who reg from the start lose significant equity to the late reggers (since it's a zero sum game: if you gain equity by late regging it must be at the expense of others)
(4) Big stacks do lose some equity. If they have 100 bbs but are opening into a field of late reggers with 10 bbs, they're playing 10 bbs effective too. However, near the bubble they gain ICM equity by being able to open wide into players they can bust
(5) I believe that the more prizes there are the bigger an edge we have when we max late reg. I can't run ICM for 88 runners left but I can verify that 8/8 with 6 paid is better than 4/4 with 3 paid so by extension I assume 88/88 with 80 paid is better than 22/22 with 20 paid.
(6) Roughly neutral EV I think to be on a max late reg table. You lose equity not being able to steal fold equity from big stacks, but you gain equity from being able to exert ICM pressure. But in reality it's probably bad as it's reasonable to assume the standard of other max late reggers will be higher than average.
Really great questions!
