Dara O'Kearney (Satellite Specialist) - Ask Me Anything about satellites/knockouts

[scullkr]

(Apologies for multiple posts- formatting issues)

The 2nd hand is the very next hand and we are now on the stone bubble. In retrospect I am probably reeling a little from the previous hand (and dreaming of Vegas and the Mirage having doubled into the chip lead!). The very same villains are involved. I recently heard some good strategy discussion on the Chip Race where you discussed taking lower (but still +EV spots) in high ICM situations and thought this might just be one of those spots considering we are covered. I ran it in HRC after and was relieved to see that the EV of flat (+0.5) and 3b to 8bb (+0.61) were not that different but it did prefer shove (+0.91). In reality I'm not sure about 3b small- I feel SB is very likely coming along and likely to pressure me post flop, while even if I knew CO had AQ and was calling a shove I'm not sure about running it versus Ax. How do you think you might have approached it pre-flop?


Ignition - 1500/3000 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 32,230
MP+1: 49,020
MP+2: 130,657
CO: 128,524
BTN: 118,616
SB: 286,906
Hero (BB): 109,005
UTG: 36,816
UTG+1: 92,106

9 players post ante of 300, SB posts SB 1,500, Hero posts BB 3,000

Pre Flop: (pot: 7,200) MP+2 has 7♦ A♠

Pre Flop: (pot: 7,200) SB has 8♦ 8♣

Pre Flop: (pot: 7,200) Hero has K♣ K♠

fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 6,885, fold, fold, SB calls 5,385, Hero calls 3,885

Flop: (23,355, 3 players) T♣ 9♣ A♣
SB checks, Hero checks, MP+2 bets 9,385, SB calls 9,385, Hero calls 9,385

Turn: (51,510, 3 players) J♠
SB checks, Hero checks, MP+2 checks

River: (51,510, 3 players) T♦
SB checks, Hero checks, MP+2 checks

SB shows 8♦ 8♣ (Two Pair, Tens and Eights)
(Pre 18%, Flop 7%, Turn 5%)
Hero shows K♣ K♠ (Two Pair, Kings and Tens)
(Pre 58%, Flop 42%, Turn 31%)
MP+2 shows 7♦ A♠ (Two Pair, Aces and Tens)
(Pre 24%, Flop 51%, Turn 64%)
MP+2 wins 51,510

 

[Dara OKearney]

Hello Dara, welcome to Cardschat. It’s a honour for me to read some of your posts and to ask you something.
I really don’t know what to ask, as I have too many questions.
What is the best strategy in knockouts to knockout the most people, I think in this kind of tournament strategy should be quite different from average tournaments.
What range of hands can you advise to play on low limits in the beginning of the satellite or knockout and at top-100?

Hi, thanks for your kind comments!

Knockouts indeed are very different, so much so I wrote a whole book on the differences:

https://amzn.to/36Xog27

Probably the best way to answer your specific question and summarise the main strategy differences is to get you to read this short piece:

https://www.pokerstrategy.com/news/content/PKOs-in-five-minutes_114698/

Thanks for your questions!

 

[Tammy]

Dara's latest video for CardsChat is up on YouTube!

In this video Dara breaks down a hand he played in the EPT Prague this Spring:

 

[Arcane]

Hi Dara!
Is it good to min late reg PKOs?
As in around 5mins,
So then you're ahead of half the table you join- for their bounties.
And usually above half way on the list, not that that matters at that stage!!?
Cheers

 

[Dara OKearney]

Hey Dara, thank you so much for doing this at CC. Reading the Q&A above turned out to be very useful.
I have a naive question kind of, sorry but I have to ask anyway.
In the first stage of satellites with a hyper structure (my nightmare), do you just keep your cool and play patiently when you are card dead ? or do you start making moves in position ?

Good question!

Short answer is stay patient. Irrespective of how fast the structure is, there's never a reason to force matters and take -Ev spots just because it's frustrating to have to keep folding when you're card dead. The only really difference between a slow and fast structure is that you can pass only slightly profitable spots in a slow structure, but not in a fast one, but you should never take unprofitable spots. Sometimes that means you'll blind down and bust first all-in, but that's still a more profitable long term strategy than forcing the issue.

Thanks for your question!

 

[najisami]

Good question!

Short answer is stay patient. Irrespective of how fast the structure is, there's never a reason to force matters and take -Ev spots just because it's frustrating to have to keep folding when you're card dead. The only really difference between a slow and fast structure is that you can pass only slightly profitable spots in a slow structure, but not in a fast one, but you should never take unprofitable spots. Sometimes that means you'll blind down and bust first all-in, but that's still a more profitable long term strategy than forcing the issue.

Thanks for your question!

Thank you so much for your answer. It makes a lot os sense to me. I just have to get my patience together regardless of the structure.

 

[Dara OKearney]

Hi Dara,

Thanks for your ongoing engagement with the forum and answers to my questions so far. I recently had two interesting hands on a bubble and would appreciate your insights. This is the $425+25 $350k GTD on Ignition/Bovada. We are currently sitting 11/191 with 189 players paid. These are consecutive hands. I am a recreational player and this is well outside my usual buy in range (we won a ticket, actually 2 tickets for this one- thank you!) but I have played quite a few of these bigger buy ins on Ignition and the play is loose to say the least. A year ago I probably say YOLO and get it in in both these spots. As I study ICM more I find myself going the other way- and my main question here is am I going too far that way. For the record min cash is $793, 1st place is $58442 and ratio between 1st to 5th and 5th to 9th payouts is 4.2.

First hand UTG limps. We have played about 45 hands with him and I have seen him limp call a bit from EP. I've seen one show down where he limp called KJs UTG. I had not seen any limp 3 bets but had seen him play a relatively nutted 3b range in later positions, 3b shoving Button and CO QQ and TT vs MP raises. Although he covered me I perhaps underestimated the chances of me having my stack put at risk in this spot and would normally iso my entire range here. I did not know much about the Button. Flop I decide to bet big for value and protection, but am likely not going 3 streets here depending on the runouts. In retrospect I do recall you discussing using small bets post flop in ICM heavy spots. Once he jams I decide to fold. There is probably some KQ there but TT and 55 certainly possibilities. KJs might be there but I block some Jx (I don't know if KJo/QJo is in the limp range). Ultimately I decide that the A clubs was not a good card for me as it removed a lot of bluffs although even if I had AJhh I'm not sure I have the equity I need here close to the bubble.


Ignition - 1500/3000 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+2: 32,830
CO: 49,620
BTN: 130,057
SB: 130,624
BB: 123,716
UTG: 229,906
Hero (UTG+1): 157,005
MP: 37,416
MP+1: 92,706

9 players post ante of 300, SB posts SB 1,500, BB posts BB 3,000

Pre Flop: (pot: 7,200) Hero has A♣ J♠

UTG calls 3,000, Hero raises to 12,000, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 12,000, fold, fold, UTG calls 9,000

Flop: (43,200, 3 players) 5♣ J♣ T♠
UTG checks, Hero bets 35,400, fold, UTG raises to 217,606 and is all-in, fold

UTG wins 114,000

Hi,

Tricky spot. My thoughts:
(1) Preflop I wouldn't raise as big. The more chips go in pre the more likely it is stacks are threatened by the river, and with ICM we don't want that. I might even fold to avoid the spot with a hand that doesn't play great multiway, but I don't mind a raise to 9k given your read on opener
(2) On the flop, I either bet small or check. Our one pair hand with backdoors does better in small pots than big ones. As you mentioned, ICM incentivizes to go smaller than normal if we bet
(3) Facing the shove I definitely fold. His bluffs have decent equity and his value has us in pretty bad shape

Thanks for the hand!

 

[CadoARAJ]

Hi Dara, at PKO games, how do you calculate the EV call/fold when a small stack went all in pre flop before your action? The posible amount of $ that you can receive for the KO counts or you only calls/ lsqueeze if you have a nice hand pre flop?

 

[Dara OKearney]

(Apologies for multiple posts- formatting issues)

The 2nd hand is the very next hand and we are now on the stone bubble. In retrospect I am probably reeling a little from the previous hand (and dreaming of Vegas and the Mirage having doubled into the chip lead!). The very same villains are involved. I recently heard some good strategy discussion on the Chip Race where you discussed taking lower (but still +EV spots) in high ICM situations and thought this might just be one of those spots considering we are covered. I ran it in HRC after and was relieved to see that the EV of flat (+0.5) and 3b to 8bb (+0.61) were not that different but it did prefer shove (+0.91). In reality I'm not sure about 3b small- I feel SB is very likely coming along and likely to pressure me post flop, while even if I knew CO had AQ and was calling a shove I'm not sure about running it versus Ax. How do you think you might have approached it pre-flop?


Ignition - 1500/3000 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 32,230
MP+1: 49,020
MP+2: 130,657
CO: 128,524
BTN: 118,616
SB: 286,906
Hero (BB): 109,005
UTG: 36,816
UTG+1: 92,106

9 players post ante of 300, SB posts SB 1,500, Hero posts BB 3,000

Pre Flop: (pot: 7,200) MP+2 has 7♦ A♠

Pre Flop: (pot: 7,200) SB has 8♦ 8♣

Pre Flop: (pot: 7,200) Hero has K♣ K♠

fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 6,885, fold, fold, SB calls 5,385, Hero calls 3,885

Flop: (23,355, 3 players) T♣ 9♣ A♣
SB checks, Hero checks, MP+2 bets 9,385, SB calls 9,385, Hero calls 9,385

Turn: (51,510, 3 players) J♠
SB checks, Hero checks, MP+2 checks

River: (51,510, 3 players) T♦
SB checks, Hero checks, MP+2 checks

SB shows 8♦ 8♣ (Two Pair, Tens and Eights)
(Pre 18%, Flop 7%, Turn 5%)
Hero shows K♣ K♠ (Two Pair, Kings and Tens)
(Pre 58%, Flop 42%, Turn 31%)
MP+2 shows 7♦ A♠ (Two Pair, Aces and Tens)
(Pre 24%, Flop 51%, Turn 64%)
MP+2 wins 51,510

On the stone bubble I like the flat. I'm not surprised the shove is best and if everyone involved in a hand was a beast I would shove, but if even one of the calling ranges is a bit too wide the shove becomes terrible. I definitely don't 3 bet, as calling a shove isn't great nd 3 bet folding is pretty bad too. Well played!

 

[Dara OKearney]

Hi Dara!
Is it good to min late reg PKOs?
As in around 5mins,
So then you're ahead of half the table you join- for their bounties.
And usually above half way on the list, not that that matters at that stage!!?
Cheers

My Chip Race cohost has suggested this but I don't personally subscribe to this theory. If you're there right at the start you can potentially claim the bounty of every other player on your table, so I don't see how waiting a few minutes until you can only win half them is better.

Thanks for your question!

 

[pariurisportive88]

wher do you play satelite ?

 

[Dara OKearney]

Hi Dara, at PKO games, how do you calculate the EV call/fold when a small stack went all in pre flop before your action? The posible amount of $ that you can receive for the KO counts or you only calls/ lsqueeze if you have a nice hand pre flop?

Hi,

The best way to do this is using concepts called Bounty Factor and Bounty Discount that are explained in detail in my book "PKO Poker Strategy"

 

[CadoARAJ]

Hi,

The best way to do this is using concepts called Bounty Factor and Bounty Discount that are explained in detail in my book "PKO Poker Strategy"

Nice. Exactly what I need. I was ready to buy it at amazon and showed $4,99 and qhen i clicked the buy in increased to $8,98. Do you know how much is is right now?

 

[CadoARAJ]

Nice. Exactly what I need. I was ready to buy it at amazon and showed $4,99 and qhen i clicked the buy in increased to $8,98. Do you know how much is is right now?

I had bought it for the bigger price. It will be paid at the tables. Ty.

 

[Dara OKearney]

wher do you play satelite ?

These days, Stars, Party, unibet, Ipoker and ACR.

Thanks for your queston!

 

[LetterRip]

Really enjoyed your most recent book - would recommend anyone who plays tournaments to get it.

Any idea when the second part of your ICM focus will come out?

 

[sn0112]

Hello Dara,

I hope you are well. I’m fairly new to Poker but have all three of your poker strategy books and they have been a big help.

I have a few questions on certain situations.

1) Consolation prizes:

I like to play satellites to PKOs. On occassion the satellite pays out x number of seats plus one cash consolation.

In this scenario, I sometimes find myself calculating the number of (starting) bounties that the consolation prize is worth and deciding whether to deliberately settle for that.

Have you ever targeted consolation prizes, and do you think it is worthwhile?

2) Blind out or bust?

Scenario: you are the shortest stack with 1 satellite seat left and you in the blinds.

Stack size: 1.2 BB

Ante: 0.2BB

I have been in this situation and folded junk, leaving only 1 ante. Sometimes it has worked out and I've won a seat. Other times my (folded) junk hands would have won the pot.

What range would you play in this situation (1.2 BB stack and in the blinds) given that you will blind out in one orbit. Do you ever fold leaving just an ante?

3) Day 2 tournaments

Some online MTTs have 2 Day formats where your stack is carried over to the main tournament (Day 2).

To me they feel a bit like a satellite in that you can check the Day 2 lobby and see what the average stack is. This becomes a target of sorts to calculate your chance of cashing as you will be almost in the money once you reach Day 2.

However, this can result in my play being quite passive. How do you approach these formats?

 

[Minakshi]

Thanks a lot Dara for providing your valued guidance.I have a question :Sometimes close to bubble in satellites ,where only 2-3% make the cut, even if i am 20Bb deep due to large BB structure the stack quickly erodes because everybody tightens up.What would be the best ranges to play in this scenario?I have seen mostly people shove only JJ+ and it really boils down to a coin flip specially if I am running card dead for some time

 

[psycodelic1]

Hi just i want to ask how to survive in the bubble situation being short and what a kind of ranges you use to limp or shove with it THANKS

 

[psycodelic1]

Thanks a lot Dara for providing your valued guidance.I have a question :Sometimes close to bubble in satellites ,where only 2-3% make the cut, even if i am 20Bb deep due to large BB structure the stack quickly erodes because everybody tightens up.What would be the best ranges to play in this scenario?I have seen mostly people shove only JJ+ and it really boils down to a coin flip specially if I am running card dead for some time

Bro i swear asking the same thing bro always the bubble 60% of times busto... with any dominating hand .

 

[pariurisportive88]

from what stakes you start playing satellites and what kind of satellites we recommend online?

 

[Dara OKearney]

Nice. Exactly what I need. I was ready to buy it at amazon and showed $4,99 and qhen i clicked the buy in increased to $8,98. Do you know how much is is right now?

I don't. We have absolutely no control over what price Amazon charge beyond setting the maximum, but I believe they regularly drop the price down in periods where they believe doing so will increase sales.

Thanks for your question!

 

[P1R35]

Hi Dara.

I had a few questions but first I will describe the spot.

20$ online MTT.
94 players left
80 ITM
Avg stack 25bb
Hero 13bb (68th of 94 players).

8 handed,
LJ 17bb goes all in.
SB 60bb jams too.
Hero BB 13bb (12bb after posting BB), with T♦ T♣

So we faced two all-ins near the bubble.

1. What range you gave LJ and SB ?
2. What’s should be hero’s calling range (odds 33%)? What you call in game ?
3. How you would solve this spot out of the table?
4. How you would guesstimate “new” pot odds with near the bubble spot?

 

[DevilDawid]

Hi Cardschat,

I am Dara O’Kearney, known as Doke online. I am an Irish poker professional tournament player, with over $1 million in live earnings and more than $3 million in online MTTs, not to mention 8 PocketFives Triple Crowns.

I am perhaps best known for being a satellite specialist. I have won over $1 million in online satellites alone and have just written a new book on this subject called Poker Satellite Strategy:

Away from the tables I am the co-host of the Global Poker Award winning Chip Race Podcast and sponsored by Unibet Poker. Prior to poker I was an ultra marathon runner

Cardschat have kindly agreed to let me do an Ask Me Anything thread where you can ask me anything at all about satellites and tournament strategy. This will be on an ongoing basis, I’ll be checking in most weeks starting this one to answer your questions and to begin with I will be around tomorrow to answer the first batch.

Also this month I will give a free copy of my book on Apple iBooks to my favourite question, once a week for the next four weeks.

AMA


Dara

Hi Dara,
Could you tell me please with what hands would you be betting if you are out of position on the table? It looks like most of people play with any hands and it's annoying

 

[apLike]

It's very sad when in a multi-stage satellite you fly out at the last stage, and all your efforts are in vain