NFL/college football betting thread 2015

[atlantafalcons0]

Added for tomorrow:

STRAIGHT BET

GEORGIA -3-105


STRAIGHT BET

CLEMSON -7-110

 

[atlantafalcons0]

Added for tomorrow:

STRAIGHT BET

MARYLAND +31½-115



STRAIGHT BET

ARKANSAS +16½-110


STRAIGHT BET

BOISE STATE -15-110


STRAIGHT BET

FLORIDA -4-115


STRAIGHT BET

SOUTH CAROLINA +20-115


PARLAY (5 TEAMS)

MARYLAND +31½-115
ARKANSAS +16½-110
BOISE STATE -15-110
FLORIDA -4-115
SOUTH CAROLINA +20-115




STRAIGHT BET



STRAIGHT BET

NOTRE DAME -14-115


STRAIGHT BET

Michigan -10-115


STRAIGHT BET

NEBRASKA +1½-105




PARLAY (3 TEAMS)

NOTRE DAME -14-115
MICHIGAN -10-115
NEBRASKA +1½-105

 

[atlantafalcons0]

Added for tonight:


WYOMING +21-110

UTAH -7-115

 

[zjohnzzz]

new england -7.5

 

[atlantafalcons0]

Adding more bets before 1pm est, there are some easy money bets on the schedule this week btw...

zjohnzzz just mentioned one of them. We all know the Pats will win by 20+ points.

 

[atlantafalcons0]

Added for today:

Pats -8
Green Bay -9
Atlanta -7

 

[ribbybruno]

College FB-


Northwestern +7.5 @ Michigan LOSS
Oklahoma -17 Vs Texas @ Cotton Bowl LOSS
Navy +14.5 @ Notre Dame LOSS
Kansas St. +9 @ Home Vs TCU WIN
Oklahoma St. +7 @ West Virginia WIN
Utah -7 @ Home Vs California LOSS

This Week (2-4) -2.4 Units

NFL Picks -

New York Giants -7 @ Home Vs SF LOSS
Cincy -3 @ Home Vs Seattle TIE
Atlanta -8 @ Home Vs Washington LOSS
Green Bay -10 @ Home Vs St. Louis WIN
New England -10 @ Dallas WIN


This Week (2-2-1) -.20 Units

Better than the other weeks but still a loser. What goes down will come up!

 

[xdeucesx]

Week: 2-1, Titans +3 4u, Browns +7.5 1u, Jags +3 1u


Overall:

21-13-2, +23.07 units

 

[atlantafalcons0]

San Diego -4 1/2 for a chunk tonight.

Antonio Gates returns...

 

[c9h13no3]

Titans +3 4u

Typically, for BRM purposes, you put 1 unit on each bet. For players who can quantify their edge well, I've seen as high as 2 units per bet. So to say you're up 20+ units is misleading since you don't have that a win percentage that high.

 

[xdeucesx]

Typically, for BRM purposes, you put 1 unit on each bet. For players who can quantify their edge well, I've seen as high as 2 units per bet. So to say you're up 20+ units is misleading since you don't have that a win percentage that high.

Right yeah, I just kind of splash around since it's so low for me. I only bet like 5 or 10$ a game and my "roll" is around like 5k lol. I just do it for fun, nothing too serious, so I just track all my bets in one measurement for my own interest. I even count any parlay's I hit in there, so that accounts for the variance. I could lose 1,000 5$ units this year and it probably wouldn't have any real effect on me monetarily.

TBH, I just hammer MasseyPeabody lines usually


Also, fwiw, that's the only time I've ever bet more than 1 u on a game. Done one 2u bet, 1 4 u bet and that's it for me. The rest are all 1 or .5 units

 

[ribbybruno]

Record - College- Last Week (2-4) Overall (14-23) -11.30 Units
NFL - Last Week (2-2-1) Overall (5-9-1) -4.90 Units

Units - Last Week (-2.60) Overall (-16.20)


Picks This Week- 1 Unit Each


College-

(Friday) Houston (-19) @ Tulane
Memphis (+10.5) @Home Vs. Mississippi
Michigan St. (+8.5) @ Michigan
Texas A&M (+4) @ Home Vs. Alabama
Temple (-21.5) @ Home Vs. UCF


NFL-

New Orleans/Atlanta Over 51.5
Arizona/Pittsburgh Over 44.5
Chicago/Detroit Under 43.5
Chicago (+3) @ Detroit
Cleveland/Denver Over 42
Green Bay/San Diego Over 50
New York Giants/Philadelphia Over 49

Try some numbers this week! Good luck gents on your picks!

 

[c9h13no3]

LOVE the Giants +5.5 this week. Has everyone forgotten that the Eagles suck? The Giants are a better team by DVOA. Seems like a free 2.5 points to me.

Also like Cin -3 (EJ Manuel blows) and Bal -2.

 

[ribbybruno]

I had Florida St (-7) @ Home Vs Louisville as well today!

When I posted my list of games. I missed this one somehow.

 

[ribbybruno]

Just added New York Giants +5.5 for 1 Unit tomorrow night. Go GMen!

 

[OzExorcist]

Had one of those meh break even kinda days today, got NYG+5.5 for a unit tomorrow night too

 

[c9h13no3]

Had one of those meh break even kinda days today, got NYG+5.5 for a unit tomorrow night too

Yeah, 2-2-1 this week. Blehhhhh.

 

[ribbybruno]

NY Giants played horrible! Started out good and went downhill from there! That game sent me to another losing weekend in football. Thank goodness for winning in baseball this year ( +22.5 Units) to offset my crummy picking so far with the pigskin (- 17.90 Units). Time to buckle up!

 

[ribbybruno]

College

(Friday) Houston (-19) @ Tulane Win Cougars playing well
Florida St. (-7) @ Home vs Louisville Win Seminoles rolled in 4th quarter
Memphis (+10.5) @ Mississippi Win Memphis a good team
Michigan St. (+8.5) @ Michigan Win Really good battle
Texas A &M (+4) vs Alabama Loss Bamas secondary playing well
Temple (-21.5) @ Home vs UCF Loss Temple flat in this one

This week (4-2) +1.80 Units

NFL

(Thurs.) N.O./Atl Over 51.5 Win Late score gets it to 52
Chicago (+3) @ Detroit Tie Detroit needed overtime
Chi/Det Over 43.5 Loss No defense in this game
Ariz/Pitt Over 44.5 Loss Only Steelers O showed up
Clev/Den Over 42 Win I picked Over - injuries
GB/ SD Over 50 Loss 9 minutes left - no scoring
NY Giants (+5.5) Loss Giants play horrible
NY G/ Phil Over 49 Loss Pitiful offensive output

This week (2-5-1) -3.5 Units

Overall College and NFL for week -1.70 Units

 

[ribbybruno]

Record - College- Last Week (4-2) Overall (18-25) -9.50 Units
NFL - Last Week (2-5-1) Overall (7-14-2) -8.40 Units

Units - Last Week (-1.70) Overall (-17.90)

Picks This Week- 1 Unit Each

College-

Miami Hurricanes (+7) @ Home Vs Clemson
Illinois (+7) @ Home Vs Wisconsin
Utah (+3.5) @ Southern California


NFL-

N.O./Indy OVER 52
St. Louis (-5.5) @ Home Vs Cleveland
San Fran (+5.5) @ Home Vs Seattle (Thurs)
Oak/S.D. OVER 46.5
Arizona (-7.5) @ Home Vs Baltimore

Put these in earlier today before the line changed on a few of these games.

 

[OzExorcist]

Detroit +3 for a unit so far this week, and half a unit tonight on Kearse over 40.5 yards receiving.

Also I don't follow college football at all really, but Massey Peabody have the line for Cal@UCLA at about -8, and the actual line is -3.5. I'm pretty sure I know what I'm supposed to do with that information...

 

[grilldoggy]

2 picks I like this weekend: Clemson (-6.5) @ Miami Fla. & Florida State (-5.5) @ Georgia Tech.

 

[atlantafalcons0]

SF +6
SF su
Under 42 1/2

 

[c9h13no3]

Also I don't follow college football at all really, but Massey Peabody have the line for Cal@UCLA at about -8, and the actual line is -3.5. I'm pretty sure I know what I'm supposed to do with that information...

You're deriving those lines from their power rankings? If so, you need to adjust for home field (which may be bigger or smaller in scenarios like these where you have in-state rivals), byes, injuries to key players (which isn't just the QB like in the pros).

I just checked the numbers, they have UCLA 4.5 points better on a neutral field. It's @ UCLA, so 7.5 (but in college, who knows). And then the Bears are coming off a bye, which is usually worth about a point in the pros (dunno if it's more or less in college). So 6.5. So it'd be a moderate play in UCLA's favor, but the MP line vs. the actual line doesn't cross any of the two key numbers, so not a huge play.

 

[OzExorcist]

Yeah I'm just doing a rough and dirty calculation based on their numbers (home-away+3.5 for home field), and I know it doesn't include all the other adjustments they might make (IIRC they also have a "game pace" adjustment in college along with the other stuff you mentioned). At the very least it gives me an idea of whether to look more closely at the game though.