NFL Betting Thread

[phonse00]

This is their fine print:

"
If a withdrawal is made before the bonus terms are met, all bonus funds AS WELL as any money earned by wagering the bonus will be forfeited.

Note: If you prefer, you can chose to forfeit your bonus and any winnings earned off of it to proceed with a payout request.
"

I've read this over and over and still don't see how they feel justified in taking the earnings out of my cash balance. We are not talking about the bonus play here. How do you read this?

Al

 

[TheKid84]

This is their fine print:

"
If a withdrawal is made before the bonus terms are met, all bonus funds AS WELL as any money earned by wagering the bonus will be forfeited.

This is their policy. They will provide bonuses, some real nice ones even. But yes, they will make you work for it and earn it when it is that time to cash out. They are a business.

I've read this over and over and still don't see how they feel justified in taking the earnings out of my cash balance. We are not talking about the bonus play here. How do you read this?

Al

Justified or not, it's their policy. I was trying to follow what you posted with your situation and from what it seemed they were within their rights. I mean correct me if I'm wrong, but the fine print told you what would happen and that's what happened, no?

Side note - be thankful you got to speak to someone in customer service (love that part about Bovada). Most sites, you can barely get an automated premade email that doesn't mean anything to your situation.

 

[OzExorcist]

Onwards to week nine?

Tomorrow night I'm taking Cinci to win straight @ $1.64.

They've won their last four, while Miami have lost their last four. They're only 2-2 on the road, and their road wins have only been by a max of three points, but the Dolphins are only 1-2 at home (and their home losses have been by 4 or less). Cinci seems to be ahead in pretty much all meaningful stats this season. The small margins on their road wins (and on Miami's home losses) had me steering away from a line bet though, even though they're only -2.5.

What are other people thinking?

 

[A9ofHearts]

Onwards to week nine?

Tomorrow night I'm taking Cinci to win straight @ $1.64.

They've won their last four, while Miami have lost their last four. They're only 2-2 on the road, and their road wins have only been by a max of three points, but the Dolphins are only 1-2 at home (and their home losses have been by 4 or less). Cinci seems to be ahead in pretty much all meaningful stats this season. The small margins on their road wins (and on Miami's home losses) had me steering away from a line bet though, even though they're only -2.5.

What are other people thinking?

I like it.

 

[c9h13no3]

Tough week, the lines are starting to get pretty sharp. Vegas is figuring out the teams that I've been riding so far. I'll usually bet against the Chiefs, but Jeff Tuel is a big step down from Thad Lewis, so I'm not sure there's value there.

If I were in the Hilton Super Contest, this would be my five:

Car -7.5 vs. Atl - Atl has no defense, no run game, and no passing offense.
Ten -3 @ StL - People haven't figured out that Clemmons is horrible and Locker is actually good.
NE -6 vs. Pit - Amendola might play a whole game, big downgrade from DeCastro to Whimper.
Chi +10 @ GB - McCown is actually able to move the ball.
SD +1 @ Was - Bleh, I just think the public is underrating SD. Hard to pick 5 tho.

 

[OzExorcist]

Yeah, this is looking like kind of an ugly week to me too. This is what I'm picking:

New Orleans win @ $1.40. Jets wins haven't been particularly convincing or against top teams, and Geno Smith gets sacked a lot.

New England win @ $1.33, New England -7 @ $2.00. Pittsburgh are 2-5 ATS, they have injury problems to boot, while New England are 4-0 at home.

KC win @ $1.54. I don't think KC have been super-convincing either, but I think they still get the win, especially with Buffalo's QB troubles.

Dallas win @ $1.22. Because it's Minnesota... but I don't feel like I can rely on Dallas to cover such big spread.

Seattle -14.5 @ $1.91. Because it's Tampa, who've been losing by an average of 9 points to all sorts of teams all seasons, and it's a Seattle home game where they're plenty capable of a 20+ point blowout.

 

[jordanbillie]

Alright, I have made a bet this week ladies and gentlemen. I decided to make a couple decent sized bets in an attempt to hit and run sports betting this year. My bets are:

NO -7 $20 to win $18.18
NE -7 $20 to win $19.05
And I parlayed them $10 to win $27.27

Hoping for a quick $65 today.

 

[c9h13no3]

This may sound like 20/20 hindsight with the game at halftime, but betting on NO seemed like a sucker bet all week. Rule #1 in handicapping is that home dogs win at about a 52% clip ATS. So you're fighting an uphill battle with a road favorite, especially with a public team like the Saints. The Jets run the ball well, and play okay defense, which is the hallmark of a good home dog pick. Massey-Peabody had the NYJ as one of their plays this week, and they're a pretty sharp bunch.

 

[jordanbillie]

Pats save me and I only lose ~$10.

Done for the year.

 

[OzExorcist]

4-2 on the above picks for a tiny-smidge-above-break-even result. Loss on the round taking the Cinci game into account from earlier in the week though.

 

[CATLICKER]

Week 1 is fast approaching.

I currently have a $500 bovada bankroll. my goal (or dream) is to get to $15k before football season is over.

I'm feeling pretty strongly about going big on colts and patriots weeks 1 & 2. both of them have pretty easy match ups.

I'm thinking about doing either a $350 parlay with colts and pats against the spread or doing 2 $200 bets ATS on each time individually.

To minimize risk, i was tossing around the idea of a 2 team teaser, but i just feel both these teams are going to blow out their week 1 opponents by 14+ pts.

what match ups do you guys like? what's your "lock of the week"?

i plan to post more in this thread with results, thoughts and feedback.

Just seen your post Millertime. Was just curious what kind of progress you are making towards your goal?

 

[A9ofHearts]

Just seen your post Millertime. Was just curious what kind of progress you are making towards your goal?

As far as I know he went busto and didn't redeposit.

 

[jazzaxe]

Took the Bears and ten tonight on Bovada for 50.00. Tired of hearing my son brag on them Packers. Need to be lucky or Rodgers out of game.

 

[A9ofHearts]

Took the Bears and ten tonight on Bovada for 50.00. Tired of hearing my son brag on them Packers. Need to be lucky or Rodgers out of game.

You got Lucky. Really going to cost me to have Rodgers out of the game.

 

[thebigdawg]

Back after taking a week off from the blog.

http://itsalock.wordpress.com/2013/11/05/back-in-black/

Hope all is doing well!

 

[c9h13no3]

Min +2.5 vs. Was - Home dog, Thursday night games are typically lower scoring
GB -1 vs. Phi - Matthews comes back, Public over reacting to Monday night
Car +6.5 @ SF - Car is legit, public doesn't know it yet, been riding them every week.
Dal @ NO -6.5 - No one loves Romo, NO is a public team. Standard stuff.
TB +2.5 vs. Mia - Controversy spills onto the field, and losing 2 lineman hurts.

The sharps like Arizona, Cincinnati, and Atlanta as well. I'm not sure I trust Houston being that bad. They suffered a huge string of bad luck pick-sixes, and the sharps are expecting Case Keenum to come down to earth some, which I don't see happening. Cincinnati is going to come down to earth with the loss of Geno Atkins, and the casinos agree with 90% of the action coming in on Cincinnati. Atlanta isn't a bad home dog to take, with Roddy White coming back.

 

[OzExorcist]

So far this week I'm on:

Arizona -2.5
Green Bay -2

 

[thebigdawg]

Min +2.5 vs. Was - Home dog, Thursday night games are typically lower scoring
GB -1 vs. Phi - Matthews comes back, Public over reacting to Monday night
Car +6.5 @ SF - Car is legit, public doesn't know it yet, been riding them every week.
Dal @ NO -6.5 - No one loves Romo, NO is a public team. Standard stuff.
TB +2.5 vs. Mia - Controversy spills onto the field, and losing 2 lineman hurts.

The sharps like Arizona, Cincinnati, and Atlanta as well. I'm not sure I trust Houston being that bad. They suffered a huge string of bad luck pick-sixes, and the sharps are expecting Case Keenum to come down to earth some, which I don't see happening. Cincinnati is going to come down to earth with the loss of Geno Atkins, and the casinos agree with 90% of the action coming in on Cincinnati. Atlanta isn't a bad home dog to take, with Roddy White coming back.

Do you mean the sharps are on Baltimore?

As far as picking a team on the spread this week in the NFL the only one I really like is Arizona.

 

[thebigdawg]

Took one on the chin with Oregon last night, ready to bounce back over the weekend.

http://itsalock.wordpress.com/2013/11/08/balancing-out/

 

[jordanbillie]

Threw an 11 team parlay in this week. $2 to win ~$2200.

 

[A9ofHearts]

Threw an 11 team parlay in this week. $2 to win ~$2200.

Careful there. You hit that and you will become an addict.

 

[TheKid84]

Threw an 11 team parlay in this week. $2 to win ~$2200.

That is awesome - do post so we know who to root for! I think we'd all poop our pants

 

[c9h13no3]

Do you mean the sharps are on Baltimore?

Nope, Cin. It's a situation where the public and sharp money are on one side of the action, and the books are taking a side. This happens a lot, where the books won't have equal action on both sides, and they'll need a side to win. My brain says to go with the books in situations like this, but I'm sorta just staying away since a lot of the sports betting opinions I respect think the line should be Cin -3 or something like that instead of the Cin -1 it is now.

 

[jordanbillie]

Jacksonville Jaguars +12 vs Tennessee Titans

Philadelphia Eagles +1 vs Green Bay Packers

Buffalo Bills +3 vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Oakland Raiders +7½ vs New York Giants

Indianapolis Colts -10 vs St. Louis Rams

Seattle Seahawks -5½ vs Atlanta Falcons

Cincinnati Bengals -1 (-125) vs Baltimore Ravens

San Francisco 49ers -6 (-125) vs Carolina Panthers

Denver Broncos -7 (-115) vs San Diego Chargers

Dallas Cowboys +7 (-115) vs New Orleans Saints

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (-125) vs Miami Dolphins


Risk $2 to win $2062.26

 

[bernotas22]

my auto shove with the Lions seems to be profitable long term very few bad beats, another glorious win