c9h13no3
Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Ahhh, an NFL thread.
I suppose I should share my week 4 picks here... I wrote this up for the betting pool I'm in.
I'm also waiting around to see if Jake Locker is out. If it looks like he's not going to play, I'd probably bet Indy -7.5. Charlie Whitehurst is a HUGE DOWNGRADE from Jake (who knew that was even possible!).
I suppose I should share my week 4 picks here... I wrote this up for the betting pool I'm in.
Well damn, Vegas is starting to adjust the lines on teams and some of our value is going away. It's a cool week for week 4, with four starting QB's getting swapped for backups. Plenty of opportunities for an angle, if you have strong feelings about a backup QB. Also 5 home underdogs, which always provides a great opportunity to get value.
Jacksonville +13.5 -San Diego has been an average team that keeps getting lucky, and Blake Bortles is a big upgrade on Chad Holdtheballforever Henne. I bet against San Diego last week and my feelings haven't changed. This week I get another under rated team going against them with a big spot.
Kansas City +3.5 - I've bet against the Patriots every week so far, why stop now. They're just so over rated. They're the most penalized team in the league, they rank 21st in 3rd down conversion %, 30th in pass yards per attempt, they've had the most turnovers given to them in the league (not sustainable), and I get a ****ing hook at home in probably the 2nd noisiest stadium in the country.
Carolina +3 - The Ravens lose their left tackle, and the Panthers are coming off a bad game in prime-time. This seems like a pretty easy spot to take the better team when the public sentiment is down on them.
New York Giants +3.5 - These last two picks I'm not a huge fan of. The angle here is a Kirk Cousins regression. I think this line would normally be 3, but because Cousins has been so good it's 3.5. But he's only played against Jacksonville & Philly, their defenses suck. He averaged 7.9 net yards per attempt, and has only thrown 1 pick so far. His career numbers are 6.5 NY/A, and he typically throws two picks in 52 pass attempts. I bet he regresses to the mean a bit.
Tampa Bay +7.5 - Oh god this is a terrible pick. I regret this already. But here's the angle: Pit just had a great game in prime time, Tampa just got crushed in prime time. Tampa gets their best defender Gerald McCoy back (albeit with a club for a hand). Tampa has the extra rest. And I kinda like Mike Glennon. McCown's NY/A, if you take out the Trestman years, is about 5.2. Glennon's as a rookie was 5.0. If he improves a bit in his sophmore season, he's essentially the same guy as McCown (except he is young, and they didn't have to give him 5 million guaranteed). Why am I writing so much? Because I really really regret making this pick, and I'm trying to make it sound better.
I really wanted to pick Chicago, but they gotta stop pulling interceptions outta their asses at some point... And Dallas +3 has intrigued me, but Dallas's home field advantage isn't good, and New Orleans is driving distance. There will be a big Saint's presence there, I don't think that home field is worth the 3 points for Dallas.
I'm also waiting around to see if Jake Locker is out. If it looks like he's not going to play, I'd probably bet Indy -7.5. Charlie Whitehurst is a HUGE DOWNGRADE from Jake (who knew that was even possible!).
S
stunna946
Rising Star
Bronze Level
I took the bears in week two an came up big. There was alot of bad beats on week two as well as week 3.
I like the win it all bets, and over and under. I dont know what im doing when it comes to points spread. Some one teach me about points spread.... An go...
I like the win it all bets, and over and under. I dont know what im doing when it comes to points spread. Some one teach me about points spread.... An go...
OzExorcist
Broomcorn's uncle
Bronze Level
So far this week I've just got Chi +1.5, I'm thinking the public is probably reading too much into the talk of their banged up receivers, and probably giving GB too much credit for the win against the Jets too.
I'm liking the idea of KC +3.5 as well, but I'm wondering: is that one worth holding off until close to game time, expecting public money to come in on the Pats and gives a better price / spread? +3.5 is sitting at $1.87/-115 at all my sports books.
As in how it works, or how to pick them correctly?
The latter is far more difficult, but the former is easy enough.
When you're betting against the spread, you're adding or subtracting points from a team's final score before settling the bet.
Take last week's Baltimore-Cleveland game, for example. The Ravens won 23-21, so if you'd bet on Baltimore to win, you'd have been paid.
The line in that game ended up at 2.5 though. So if you'd bet Baltimore -2.5, they'd have lost by half a point and your line bet would have lost too. Effectively, Cleveland would have won 21-20.5 (or 23.5-23, if you'd bet Cleveland +2.5).
I'm liking the idea of KC +3.5 as well, but I'm wondering: is that one worth holding off until close to game time, expecting public money to come in on the Pats and gives a better price / spread? +3.5 is sitting at $1.87/-115 at all my sports books.
As in how it works, or how to pick them correctly?
The latter is far more difficult, but the former is easy enough.
When you're betting against the spread, you're adding or subtracting points from a team's final score before settling the bet.
Take last week's Baltimore-Cleveland game, for example. The Ravens won 23-21, so if you'd bet on Baltimore to win, you'd have been paid.
The line in that game ended up at 2.5 though. So if you'd bet Baltimore -2.5, they'd have lost by half a point and your line bet would have lost too. Effectively, Cleveland would have won 21-20.5 (or 23.5-23, if you'd bet Cleveland +2.5).
c9h13no3
Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Eh, not a bad thought. Maybe you can find it at -110 if you wait. But the difference between 3 and 3.5 is huge, so I'd probably just go ahead and grab the 3.5. And so far that line has been decently balanced.
S
stunna946
Rising Star
Bronze Level
As in how it works, or how to pick them correctly?
The latter is far more difficult, but the former is easy enough.
When you're betting against the spread, you're adding or subtracting points from a team's final score before settling the bet.
Take last week's Baltimore-Cleveland game, for example. The Ravens won 23-21, so if you'd bet on Baltimore to win, you'd have been paid.
The line in that game ended up at 2.5 though. So if you'd bet Baltimore -2.5, they'd have lost by half a point and your line bet would have lost too. Effectively, Cleveland would have won 21-20.5 (or 23.5-23, if you'd bet Cleveland +2.5).
got it, i'll stick with picking winners less of a risk.
AtiFCOD
Legend
Loyaler
I realized that it's pointless to bet for n1 teams, since the odds are little and they can lose unexpectedly. Eg I picked Barcelona to beat Malaga...Barcelona showed big strenght in the last few weeks winning all matches. Now for the firts time this season I picked them...the result draw (0-0) LOL!
N
nygmen2007
Visionary
Silver Level
Well, I like how all the experts picked the redskins, and my Giants dominated. Although Cousins made some bad throws, he was finally under pressure and the running game for the Giants came alive. Eli's one interception was not his fault as it should have been a touchdown.. I do not ever bet on my team, but I guess I missed this one... lol
c9h13no3
Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
OzExorcist
Broomcorn's uncle
Bronze Level
Have added a couple, so now have:
Chi +1.5
Ind -7.5
Jac +13.5
Waiting on KC didn't work out, moved very firmly back to +3 instead of improving the other way.
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nygmen2007
Visionary
Silver Level
During the pregame analysis of the Redskins and the Giants it caught me a little off guard how everyone thought the redskins were a better team. The Giants have made mistakes but they were clearly the better team. Anyway I made a rule to never bet on my team, but after reading everything and watching pregame I made a last minute bet of the Giants and the over, and made 500... I never sports bet, this might lead me to do that more than poker...
okeedokalee
Glory To Ukraine
Loyaler
NFL reliable selections
When i sports bet this is the guy I follow.His selection have me showing a profit with very little knowledge of the game.
Rugby Union is the game I grew up playing and have an in depth knowledge of.However it doesn't make me money.
Since I followed Colin Cowherd's selections, I'm ahead.
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/shows/...lazingfive14/colin-cowherd-blazing-five-picks
When i sports bet this is the guy I follow.His selection have me showing a profit with very little knowledge of the game.
Rugby Union is the game I grew up playing and have an in depth knowledge of.However it doesn't make me money.
Since I followed Colin Cowherd's selections, I'm ahead.
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/shows/...lazingfive14/colin-cowherd-blazing-five-picks
c9h13no3
Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
I'd be wary of that Dallas line... Looks high to me. If it moves to 7.5, take the middle. I like the Texans +6 at first glance.
A common theme in betting the NFL is that the public over reacts to great/horrible games, especially ones in prime time. Make sure you're not over reacting to Dal & KC victories in the spotlight.
A common theme in betting the NFL is that the public over reacts to great/horrible games, especially ones in prime time. Make sure you're not over reacting to Dal & KC victories in the spotlight.
OzExorcist
Broomcorn's uncle
Bronze Level
Appreciate the feedback
I had the middle in the back of my mind when I took the Dallas one and yeah, if it moves past 7 I'd look to cover the middle with Houston. Got Dal -6 at $1.95, at my other books it's already moved to $1.87. Was hoping to get in before the public over-reaction
As for KC... that might come back to bite me. FWIW MP rankings had the predicted lines at Dal -8.94 and KC +3.91 (unless I'm reading them wrong?)
I had the middle in the back of my mind when I took the Dallas one and yeah, if it moves past 7 I'd look to cover the middle with Houston. Got Dal -6 at $1.95, at my other books it's already moved to $1.87. Was hoping to get in before the public over-reaction
As for KC... that might come back to bite me. FWIW MP rankings had the predicted lines at Dal -8.94 and KC +3.91 (unless I'm reading them wrong?)
c9h13no3
Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Yeah, I almost never bet against an MP big play. But their rankings are also quite reactive. You saw how much their ranking of Atlanta & Pittsburgh moved after they trounced the Bucs & Panthers, respectively. Because their rankings just take into account numbers, the numbers on that one game are going to be great/horrible, and skew the averages (especially with a small sample early in the season) quite a bit away from what they're likely to be in the future.
This week, I really like the Atlanta as a "zig-zag" pick. NYG put on a beat down against a bad Redskins team last week, while Atlanta got their defense exposed & tossed two picks. Seems like a great spot to take an Atlanta team getting a point or two more than they should. Plus MP likes 'em.
c9h13no3
Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
From the betting pool I'm in:
Atl +4.5 - Man, this feels like a rerun of last week. Two weeks ago, the Bucs got blown out by the Falcons on Thursday night, and then they were correspondingly over/under rated the following week. The Falcons lost as a favorite, while Tampa won outright as a 7.5 point under dog. Same script here against the Giants. Eli looked unstoppable against a busted Redskins secondary, but are they really better than the Falcons? The Falcons are 4th in DVOA (if you're into that sort of thing), but I just prefer to see them as a team that passes better (8.0 vs. 6.4 net yards per attempt), and has a much bigger yard per play differential (+0.4 vs. -0.8).
Was +7.5 - Here's the other side to that "not as bad as you were last week" coin. Washington for sure isn't good, but Kirk Cousins ain't throwing 4 picks every game either. And you know that I love taking a home dog if I can talk myself into it.
Buf +7.5 - I like Kyle Orton. We both have neck beards, and we both are better QB's than EJ Manuel.
StL +7 - The Rams looked horrible week 1 with Sean Hill at the controls. This Austin Davis or whatever his name is has averaged 7.18 net yards per attempt (9th in the league) after taking over. The Rams are not in the same category as the Raiders and Bucs, and Philly is an average team by most every measure.
Ten -2.5 - The Cleveland Browns haven't turned the ball over all year. With Brian Hoyer at QB no less! On top of that, Ten doesn't have to start Charlie Whitehurst at QB, so they won't be as bad as they appeared last week. Hoyer was cut by the Cardinals while they were starting Ryan Lindley types at QB. Hoyer throws a pick this week, Tennessee wins the turnover battle, and eeks by the over-performing Browns.
Atl +4.5 - Man, this feels like a rerun of last week. Two weeks ago, the Bucs got blown out by the Falcons on Thursday night, and then they were correspondingly over/under rated the following week. The Falcons lost as a favorite, while Tampa won outright as a 7.5 point under dog. Same script here against the Giants. Eli looked unstoppable against a busted Redskins secondary, but are they really better than the Falcons? The Falcons are 4th in DVOA (if you're into that sort of thing), but I just prefer to see them as a team that passes better (8.0 vs. 6.4 net yards per attempt), and has a much bigger yard per play differential (+0.4 vs. -0.8).
Was +7.5 - Here's the other side to that "not as bad as you were last week" coin. Washington for sure isn't good, but Kirk Cousins ain't throwing 4 picks every game either. And you know that I love taking a home dog if I can talk myself into it.
Buf +7.5 - I like Kyle Orton. We both have neck beards, and we both are better QB's than EJ Manuel.
StL +7 - The Rams looked horrible week 1 with Sean Hill at the controls. This Austin Davis or whatever his name is has averaged 7.18 net yards per attempt (9th in the league) after taking over. The Rams are not in the same category as the Raiders and Bucs, and Philly is an average team by most every measure.
Ten -2.5 - The Cleveland Browns haven't turned the ball over all year. With Brian Hoyer at QB no less! On top of that, Ten doesn't have to start Charlie Whitehurst at QB, so they won't be as bad as they appeared last week. Hoyer was cut by the Cardinals while they were starting Ryan Lindley types at QB. Hoyer throws a pick this week, Tennessee wins the turnover battle, and eeks by the over-performing Browns.
OzExorcist
Broomcorn's uncle
Bronze Level
LOL - made the world's tiniest profit on today's game: in-game bet on over 52.5 points, and GB-3 for the second half. $2.03 odds on each, 52 point total and GB wins the half by four for a profit of 0.03 units
c9h13no3
Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
The NFL (No ****ing Logic) strikes again. The Pats had a short week, we're terrible through four games, but of course they trounced a Bengals team coming off a bye with that had been the most dominant team in the NFL through three weeks...
S3mper
Poker Not Checkers
Loyaler
It makes sense.
The Bengals have never played well during prime time games Sunday night, Monday night, Thursday night, or play off games.
Also The Patriots were all sorts of fired up, I personally hate the Patriots but I know that Tom Brady is extremely competitive and he is looking to redeem himself. I also dislike Belecheick (I can't even spell his name) but he is great at fixing what is broken (The O-line and everything else) and he fixed it.
I had an unbelievable week and went 13-1 (Straight up bets) and have Seattle winning tonight... my loss was an embarrassing one though.... I had the Packers losing =o
I thought the rain combined with Aaron Rogers inaccuracy would help me their, it didn't
I also thought that the Packers bad run defense would help me even with Peterson out.. it didn't...
TheKid84
Legend
Silver Level
That's pretty sick Semper, grats on a helluva week.
I didn't have GB losing, but I had that game much more closer than it was for the same reasons as you.