Value Betting (Day 7 Course Discussion)

[demesquita]

I personally think that in the last example, the call on the shove is a critic error, the non-believer call. The call from SB to a mini-raise could mean a whole lot of cards just defending the blind, BUT when the villain calls on the flop (after his trips), he does know you hit and you hit a very decent hand (you raised preflop), so his last check is without a doubt a trap being set. The tight bet on the river shows it, and the shove is the best play he could land if he is to get maximum value for his set of 9. After all it could look like a deseperate attempt to steal the pot (which is too small for that shove)... which actually worked for our non-believer hero. For me it would be an easy fold, IMO.

 

[Collin Moshman]

I personally think that in the last example, the call on the shove is a critic error, the non-believer call. The call from SB to a mini-raise could mean a whole lot of cards just defending the blind, BUT when the villain calls on the flop (after his trips), he does know you hit and you hit a very decent hand (you raised preflop), so his last check is without a doubt a trap being set. The tight bet on the river shows it, and the shove is the best play he could land if he is to get maximum value for his set of 9. After all it could look like a deseperate attempt to steal the pot (which is too small for that shove)... which actually worked for our non-believer hero. For me it would be an easy fold, IMO.

I definitely agree that Hero makes a big mistake in this hand. With that said, his river check is often not a trap and the thin value-bet was fine. Where we go wrong is just calling off the shove which are you absolutely right is a spew!

 

[Katie Dozier]

Excellent video, it is always good to refresh knowledge and eliminate bad habits.

So glad to hear this, thanks!

 

[birdman666]

To put this into an expected value perspective, let’s say you are in a cash game and have a 100 big blind (bb) stack on the river, the pot is 16bb and your opponent checks. You may not be ahead 100% of the time and they aren’t going to call 100% of the time, but in order to determine how much value you can get out of a hand you should always ask yourself, “how often do I think I am ahead here and how often will they call?”. For lack of a better term, you can call this your “value equity”.

Let’s say you feel you are about 80% confident you have the best hand and that your opponent will never fold a better hand. Now they may also fold a worse hand some times, so for the sake of this example let’s say they fold 20% of the time. So, 60% of the time you are going to get called and win money.

Actually its 64% of the times.

So your value equity can be defined mathematically by:
(1-f)*showdownEquity
where f is the chance your opponent folds.

By doing the maths:
80% * (100%-20%) = 64%

Still a slight difference.

 

[SeniorTurtle]

value betting amount

Great course so far. I am learning a lot. So, the question is in terms of value betting. It seems like the best strategy to bet as much as possible if we believe that we have the best hand but not so much as to induce folds from the players with the worst hands. It seems like a standard value bet is 1/2 a pot. Should we bet more if dealing with opponents who don't like to fold. In that case, should we bet a full pot, even more than a full pot?

 

[Collin Moshman]

Great course so far. I am learning a lot. So, the question is in terms of value betting. It seems like the best strategy to bet as much as possible if we believe that we have the best hand but not so much as to induce folds from the players with the worst hands. It seems like a standard value bet is 1/2 a pot. Should we bet more if dealing with opponents who don't like to fold. In that case, should we bet a full pot, even more than a full pot?

Thanks, that's great!

The strategy you give is a very good one to exploit weak games that have lots of calling stations: If you have a big hand, then bet more than normal for your value bets. If you're bluffing, then bet less.

Better players will understand what you're doing and exploit you by playing well against your hand based on your bet-sizing.

So the answer is just to know your opponent. Against most players (including unknowns), be fairly consistent with your bet-sizing. Against maniacs or calling stations, it's fine to bet more (including overbetting the pot) with your biggest hands.

 

[xOneCoolHandx]

Really enjoyed the video Collin. Maybe Katie snuck all of those king hands in there, although, she seems to prefer KQ of hearts

 

[Katie Dozier]

Really enjoyed the video Collin. Maybe Katie snuck all of those king hands in there, although, she seems to prefer KQ of hearts

Haha guilty as charged

 

[David macdonald]

This is something Im familiar with and do this lots anyway, but good lesson.

 

[Riccoboni]

Value Bet and Stack Arsenal

The value of the bet has to do with who will receive the bet. Sometimes betting using a blocker or denying equity value can be an excellent bet. Calculate pot odds, or bet just to speculate a villain's action. However, every bet needs to take into account the stack and arsenal. At least it works in live games.

 

[Collin Moshman]

The value of the bet has to do with who will receive the bet. Sometimes betting using a blocker or denying equity value can be an excellent bet. Calculate pot odds, or bet just to speculate a villain's action. However, every bet needs to take into account the stack and arsenal. At least it works in live games.

That is true. In a close decision, a blocker could be relevant to the value-bet decision like if you hold an overpair on a coordinated board but you block possible straight combos.

Good luck in your live games, I miss playing live poker!

 

[steveeeee]

Watching fer the 2nd time, still learning after all these yrs never too old too listen

 

[Katie Dozier]

Watching fer the 2nd time, still learning after all these yrs never too old too listen

Awesome job, Steve! You’re clearly putting a lot of effort into this and I’m sure results are bound to follow!

 

[eberetta1]

That was so funny in this video that every sample hand had a cowboy. Way easier to find myself in the hand when I have a cowboy than a duck.

 

[YuriSLopes]

Hum...

To be honest I'm fairly new to the game and definitely need more played hands to say that with deep certainty.

But playing 02NL 6max I find myself trapping and check betting a lot to bloat the pot.

Of course it depends on the villain but overall this has been the norm on the games I played on PS.

But as I said, there's loads to learn and practice.
Theory and felt action to do to prove my affirmation above.

And really thankful for Colin, Katie and CC for the "Become a Winning Poker Player in 30 Days"

 

[barbados]

To arrange a mousetrap in poker with a small piece of cheese is a classic combination. Yes, being able to make profitable bets is the key to a successful game in general.

 

[BetterThanAvgButNotByMuch]

Day 7: value betting

I always like the commentary of what to do and the thought process of hands in these vids because that's the type of thinking everyone should be using when playing or looking at hands.

When it comes to value betting I gather that you have to be able to read a board, then try to guess what your opponent has and then see if the board works with their range so you can actually put out a correct sized bet. When I see someone at the low stakes table going all in or betting crazy then I know they're not capable of thinking about what their opponents has and it tells me a lot of information to the level of their game.

From the ebook, I got that it reminds you that value betting is betting a hand that you think is best. The Q4 example in the ebook is an interesting example with value betting but makes sense from the action in the hand. The 98 hand is good example of when not to value bet.

Another good lesson from the vid and the ebook.

Week in Review:
Overall, the lessons so far were a great review and made me think of weaknesses in my game. Especially with the pot odds lesson. Like I said, I use that for limit games but not really in NL games. Too many people use that as an excuse to call hands and an opponent can value bet them to death in NL as far as I'm concerned. But I do recognize the math side of my game as a serious weakness that I can improve.

I'm studying a poker book (actually two) right now and that's definitely my limit but I'm looking at Mastering Poker Math Vol 1 and 2 which are reasonable at $10 each for the kindle editions and I guess I could grab some paper and pencil and work with the 1st book. James Sweeney's Poker Workbooks are only paper editions and at $50 for the 2nd one is out of my price range for poker books and I bet I'll get something out of the Mastering Poker Math books that overlap Sweeneys so that's out. I'd rather go back to the fundamental ABC123 books from the Poker boom that I missed that I can get for $10 used or cheap kindle editions that still give relevant info than fork over $50 for something new and shiny when I haven't mastered the basics.

So yeah, good lessons both the vids and ebook and I'm using them to review things and reevaluate my game. I'm grateful to the folks at Cardschat who organized this with Collin and Katie. Thanks.

 

[duderino89]

For me it really helps to get reminded to think about the hands i am trying to target when valuebetting. Playing micro / lowstakes i don't think i should be worried about beeing balanced when choosing my betsizing but be more focussed around what i assume my opponent have and trying to set the maximum prize that he is willing to call in these spots.

My only concern is that i don't really know when i'm getting exploited - by thin valuebetting very small you sometimes trigger the bluffraise by some opponents - that realize that you are valuebetting thin and try to get you of your hand. Pretty much the example like in the last hand shown in the videos - though he was valueraising i sometimes see a player turning their hand into bluffs in these spots too. And that kinda stops me from going for thin value most of the times except i know the player can be sticky. But how do i choose when to value bet for thin value?

 

[mariussica88]

Finished day 7...23 to go

With how much poker has evolved, it's always good to remember the basics . Nice presentation.

 

[Chase]

For me it really helps to get reminded to think about the hands i am trying to target when valuebetting. Playing micro / lowstakes i don't think i should be worried about beeing balanced when choosing my betsizing but be more focussed around what i assume my opponent have and trying to set the maximum prize that he is willing to call in these spots.

My only concern is that i don't really know when i'm getting exploited - by thin valuebetting very small you sometimes trigger the bluffraise by some opponents - that realize that you are valuebetting thin and try to get you of your hand. Pretty much the example like in the last hand shown in the videos - though he was valueraising i sometimes see a player turning their hand into bluffs in these spots too. And that kinda stops me from going for thin value most of the times except i know the player can be sticky. But how do i choose when to value bet for thin value?

I see your point about triggering the bluffraise. I was quite surprised to see that villain had a set of nines. I guess hero was too, since he made that big call on the river. I wonder how many players would do the same thing, that is make a set on the flop but check the flop, turn and river?

I'm also a bit confused by the point to be taken from this example. Hero was said to make a "thin value" bet. The point was that he thought he may have had the best hand but not necessarily. So there are lots of weaker hands that might just call that bet so hero would have made a small profit. But villain didn't just call. He raised all-in. And hero called with everything he had. A possible small profit turned into an actual big loss.

So maybe making a small value bet wasn't the right move here since it did seem to trigger a big raise and a big loss?

I thought this lesson was going to be the simplest but turned out to be the most confusing.

 

[Atararo14]

Thanks for this lesson.

I find that value betting is a very important concept in poker to win money when we have the advantage.

I think a lot of players lose money on the long term because of "checking" when they have a decent hand.

The examples of sizing for value are also important in this lesson.

 

[M1n1GuN777]

Thank you for the lesson! This is basically my approach to betting in my game, the only thing I have a hard time checking with a strong hand is that I always want to make the pot as big as possible.

 

[christovam]

I had a question about value betting on the river. I play mostly small stakes and people mostly call bets. At the same time, they’ll fold to any bet above pot size so not sure where the balance lies.

What do you think is the right size bet for a river value bet? I usually do half pot and people call, but not sure if there’s further research on this.

Generally if you go for the triple barrel it would be a crescent: 1/3, 1/2 and 3/4. So you should raise 75% of the pot.

 

[christovam]

Value Betting is how you win at poker.

If you have not yet read Day 7 and watched the video for Day 7 - take a few minutes now to do that and then come back here to discuss it:
Value Betting

Collin explains what it means to make a value bet and how important it is. Discuss value betting in this thread and ask Collin and Katie questions about it.

Good classes. These are topics that for beginners it is good to review a few times to establish the poker logic well. I'll watch it again in a few days.

 

[hilary antonik filho]

I have difficulties on the River, I can't let it get to the river, when I leave and call, it's fatal, I always end up losing, I'll study more on the 7th.