Understanding Pot Odds and Expected Value (Day 5 Course Discussion)

[David macdonald]

I really enjoyed this lesson and I understood it no bother, I got all quiz questions right and I will just need to train my brain to keep thinking in this way when I am playing.

Thanks CC.

When I complete the course how do I apply for the badge?

 

[Collin Moshman]

I really enjoyed this lesson and I understood it no bother, I got all quiz questions right and I will just need to train my brain to keep thinking in this way when I am playing.

Thanks CC.

When I complete the course how do I apply for the badge?

When you finish please PM Tammy to get your badge. Nice work so far!

 

[boyward]

I found this quite difficult to understand, but I did understand the maths. I will do. Some more reading into this to get a better understanding. I will watch the video again first. My instinct in many of these hands would be to fold, apart from a raise from the week 30 bet when here I. Would suggest has a lot of fold equity. (I hope that's right). Will let it sink in and then do some research so the concept is clear in my head and not fuzzy. Loving the course and trying to refine my game as I go. Many thanks.

 

[boyward]

I have watched the video again an understand how to calculate pot odds. I was struggling with claculating equity without software. After watching a video I found online I found the rule of 4+2. Now my understanding is this is geared towards making EV+ decisions. My question, however, is now this. Do we go by the math or do we consider our intuition? Or is this taken account by our villain range estimation. I think I need to look a bit further into this, or is there more detail further on in the course. I hope I am making some sense here ��

 

[Collin Moshman]

I have watched the video again an understand how to calculate pot odds. I was struggling with claculating equity without software. After watching a video I found online I found the rule of 4+2. Now my understanding is this is geared towards making EV+ decisions. My question, however, is now this. Do we go by the math or do we consider our intuition? Or is this taken account by our villain range estimation. I think I need to look a bit further into this, or is there more detail further on in the course. I hope I am making some sense here ��

We will talk about the rule of 2 and 4 as the course progresses.

You should generally go by the math, but keep in mind you often need reads and intuition to get it. For example, if you're getting very good odds to call a bet with a bluff-catcher, you still need to use your reads and intuition to assess if your opponent is bluffing sometimes. This topic will also be discussed more as you continue in the course. Great work on your progress so far!

 

[steelcan]

Pot odds calculation includes my money in the pot

First, I find the 30day course excellent. Professional presentation and well put together in simple terms.
I do have a question on day 5, understanding pot odds.
Perhaps I haven't thought about it enough, but to calculate pot odds, the current pot size is divided by the call amount. I believe the result will be our return / winning percentage, and that winning percentage tells us how often we need to win (or can lose) to be profitable.

My question is, is that a true winning percentage? The pot includes money that we have already put in, shouldn't that money be factored into the calculation?

 

[Collin Moshman]

First, I find the 30day course excellent. Professional presentation and well put together in simple terms.
I do have a question on day 5, understanding pot odds.
Perhaps I haven't thought about it enough, but to calculate pot odds, the current pot size is divided by the call amount. I believe the result will be our return / winning percentage, and that winning percentage tells us how often we need to win (or can lose) to be profitable.

My question is, is that a true winning percentage? The pot includes money that we have already put in, shouldn't that money be factored into the calculation?

Thanks Steelcan!

Interestingly, the pot odds calculation doesn't depend on how much of the pot we contributed. Generally speaking, our decisions will be the same if the bet is $20 and the pot is $100, whether we ourselves put in $50 or we put in $10.

I hope that answers your question -- feel free to post more if there's part of it I'm not addressing well here

 

[steelcan]

Thanks Steelcan!

Interestingly, the pot odds calculation doesn't depend on how much of the pot we contributed. Generally speaking, our decisions will be the same if the bet is $20 and the pot is $100, whether we ourselves put in $50 or we put in $10.

I hope that answers your question -- feel free to post more if there's part of it I'm not addressing well here

Thanks for your quick reply Collin. I was thinking about this in the wrong way. I was thinking of it as a winning percentage for the hand (street really), and in that case how much we put into the pot would be a factor.

But, it is a return percentage that aids us in making a decision. So, how much of the pot we put in doesn't matter. Pot odds are really decision support.

Thanks again. I'm enjoying the course.

 

[Katie Dozier]

Thanks for your quick reply Collin. I was thinking about this in the wrong way. I was thinking of it as a winning percentage for the hand (street really), and in that case how much we put into the pot would be a factor.

But, it is a return percentage that aids us in making a decision. So, how much of the pot we put in doesn't matter. Pot odds are really decision support.

Thanks again. I'm enjoying the course.

So glad Collin’s answer was helpful to you and I hope you continue to enjoy the course

 

[frazzle1991]

odds 2.5 : 1 33% of the time needs to be right.
had great odds on a pot in cc $100 freeroll yesterday with pocket 4s , vs two short stacks, perceived their all ins to be strong (which they were) but if I made the call based on the pot odds I was getting vs these shorter stacks, i would have won in that instance as I hit set on the river. ( not to say if your getting good odds you'll always win, but an example of why it is good to call if your getting good odds with a possibility of improving with more streets to come)

 

[frazzle1991]

odds 2.5 : 1 33% of the time needs to be right.
had great odds on a pot in cc $100 freeroll yesterday with pocket 4s , vs two short stacks, perceived their all ins to be strong (which they were) but if I made the call based on the pot odds I was getting vs these shorter stacks, i would have won in that instance as I hit set on the river. ( not to say if your getting good odds you'll always win, but an example of why it is good to call if your getting good odds with a possibility of improving with more streets to come)

I feel as though if I commit to repeating the process of going over these first few alone , I'll consistently end ITM/FT etc. (Onward to finish this course I keep starting and not finishing )

 

[Katie Dozier]

I feel as though if I commit to repeating the process of going over these first few alone , I'll consistently end ITM/FT etc. (Onward to finish this course I keep starting and not finishing [emoji3] )

You’re right that the first few lessons are the most fundamental to winning, but of course there’s a lot more very important info as the course progresses as well. Hope you enjoy it and good luck! [emoji4]

 

[Murph1969]

In the example you said K-9o had well over a 25% chance to win against villain's range. How? There are three K's and three 9's left in the deck. That would give us six outs twice or 24%. Are you assuming you're already ahead of some of his range?

 

[ph_il]

In the example you said K-9o had well over a 25% chance to win against villain's range. How? There are three K's and three 9's left in the deck. That would give us six outs twice or 24%. Are you assuming you're already ahead of some of his range?

you're only giving k9o the chance to win with a pair, but there are other hands k9 can make other winning hands like 2 pairs, trips, straights, quads, etc. when looking at a hands equity vs a range, you have to look at all possible winning combinations, not just their pair outs.

 

[Murph1969]

you're only giving k9o the chance to win with a pair, but there are other hands k9 can make other winning hands like 2 pairs, trips, straights, quads, etc. when looking at a hands equity vs a range, you have to look at all possible winning combinations, not just their pair outs.

Good point. Thanks! Still looks like a marginal call.

 

[BrainMasher1]

I what to add something to the 2 and 4 rule

Hello all,

Many websites explains the 2 and 4 rule.
But i never see a website that adds the following, witch seems pretty important when you have allot of outs.
If you have more that 8 outs and you use the 4x part of the rule you need to subtract the number of outs above 8 from you answer.
Lets say you have 20 outs, when using the 4x rule that would mean you have a 80% change. Witch is not correct, you only have a 67.53% change of hitting you're outs.

But when you do this: 4x20 = 80 - 12(the number of outs above 8)= 68% witch is so close to the real % of hitting that u can use it, but you can't use 80% when you only have 67.53%







Greeting​

 

[1player1]

Comment to the 4 2 rules when having flush draw

4 rule: 9x4=36
2 rule: 9x2=18

But is it true?

example:

Your hand Q9h

Villan 55
Villan 22
Villan AA
Villan KK

Flop Ah Kh 5c

it is true there are 9 hearts left but you dont want to catch 5h on the turn?

And if the turn is 2c then you don't wnat to catch 2a on the river.

I know the chance of the villan having those hands are small, but the risk is there.

So each pair on the table is a risk of loosing to full house or 4 of a kind

So can you really count a card giving you flush as an out, if there already is one of those cards on the table?

Does it make sense?

 

[bigthereal]

yeah, it is not easy to understand

 

[Murph1969]

NONE of this makes any sense to me.

 

[YuriSLopes]

Yaaasss ...

This is a concept that I've been having a hard time grasping but the course helped me a lot.

Still there's a lot more to it.
There's villain range reading and equity calculations... Sheesh...

But definitely Colin's and Katie's course is well explained and way easier to understand than anything I've found so far.

Thanks CC for the "Becoming a Winning Poker Player in 30 Days".

 

[pirateglenn]

Day 5 - the greatest value for me in following this section was relating to the key concept - Am I getting good enough pot odds to make this call profitable?
expected value - mathing out to how much i look to win or lose after a specific action.

 

[Atararo14]

Hello everyone, I have completed day 5 and I find it essential to become a good poker player.

The quiz answers :

1. The pot odd is 2.48:1

2. The pot odd in pourcentage ≈ 29%

3. I think Hero can call in this spot because he needs to be good 29% of the time. However, if he is good one in three times, its expected value will be positive on the long run.

 

[barbados]

It seems to me that this lecture is of little use for unlimited Hold'em. But for Omaha or limit Hold'em - quite an option. Apparently, the previous lecture with equity is also of little use for unlimited. I can't download a book about poker in any way. What are the features of downloading? The process stops about halfway through the download.

 

[duderino89]

Well after a break i am now back on the grind.
And pot odds and calculating the ev vs villains range and seeing if i get the right price to make a call has allways been in my book. My only issue that i face right now is how to proceed in certain flop spots.
If i face action where i flop some equity in the form of a straight/flush draws with some overcards or combo draws like a gutshot and flushdraw pair and flushdraw.
I mostly get into a position where i think i am forced to get it in on the flop.
E.g. i have opened 8d7d on the cutcoff, BB defends flop comes Kd6dTs and after playing a c-bet i am faced with a x/r where i do have the right odds to call - but when looking at the stack to pot ratio i realize that most likely i will be facing a turn overpot all-in where i sometimes don't have the right odds to call if the turn comes a blank.
There can be plenty of different spots with the same concept, so here is my question.
If i have the right odds to make a call on the flop with my equity but know that if i brick out on the turn and can't get to the river because of bad turn pot-odds it how do i proceed in spots like those? do i still call the flop or do i just take half of my equity knowing that i will be only seeing 1 cards when playing a kind of draw hand with no current showdown.

 

[BetterThanAvgButNotByMuch]

Day 5: Pot Odds & EV

Math and poker combined make me cringe so I really don't like them. I tried doing the review question and got a headache so passed. I'll try and get through it but I'd rather look at the next lesson preflop stuff.

Pot Odds can be determined by taking the Total Pot Size divided by the cost to call. The ebook has a chart that I guess translates the pot odds to a percentage so you know how many times you have to win that hand for it to be profitable.

In a limit game I'll look at simple ABC123 pot odds but in nl I'd rather go by how folks actually play and my gut rather than coming up with a reason to call. When I know who nitty nancey or aggressive angelo are and their betting patterns then I don't need pot odds. And I don't need a HUD or anything to figure out their tendencies but just pay attention to the game and their showdowns.

I've always looked at pot odds are an excuse to continue a hand when you don't need to against players that make way too many mistakes especially on the low limit side. Sure its great on the higher level when you're unsure but for the lower levels it will give folks a reason to continue hands that they don't need to be in and hurt them. Its like going to a store and buying a bunch of junk that you don't need and come up with excuse after excuse to keep picking up more stuff that clutters your house and you use like 1 time and sits in a closet for years, its just not useful to me.

Its a weakness in my game but when I'm facing folks that don't even know starting hands or they're going all in with trash hands at the beginning of a tourn then I know I can get by without knowing the ins and outs of pot odds.

Thanks for the lesson.

Onward to the next lesson!!!