NWPatriot said:
One of my biggest frustrations with range reading is removing too many hands from the range based on a passive action.
If we consider a starting range for a player and automatically remove QQ+ from their range because they didn't bet or raise, we may just be setting ourselves up for disaster. Many players are intentionally deceptive and may check some of these hands. It may be incorrect to not get value now, but I am sure they are thinking they will get the chips later in the hand.
So, as I mull these ranges over in my head, I just go around in circles never being sure of what they have or what they don't have because a check or a raise doesn't mean nearly as much as I would like it to. With that being said, i find myself being very wary of thinning out my opponents range and tend to trust the starting range and not so much trust the actions unless it is very clear.
Any tips for getting out of this quagmire??
Came here to say this, but he already said. So, what about slowplaying, setting traps. On the video, if the guy thinks I'm strong, and has a flush...he will tend to CHECK to induce my value bet...and then raise...>
I constantly think about this kinda of play instead of checking by being weak
I think the main point here is that this course is teaching you the basics about how to think in ranges to form the foundation of becoming a winning player. Whole books can be written about this (have been written actually). And, the written part of this book even says that the player "can" have a hand that is outside the range we assign them. We might not put QQ-AA into a player's range when they limp/call preflop. It does not mean they could never limp QQ+, but assuming they have a normal PFR stat, we can assume they would have raised those hands and that it is unlikely they are in their holdings for this hand.
You might want to consider keeping these hands in their range, but "discount" them. There are six combinations of each pair. You might keep one combination of each in their limping range. So, it is six times more likely they have 55 than they have KK. And, so on for the rest of their range.
Ed Miller's "How to Read Hands at No Limit Hold'em" is a very detailed book about this. The downside is that it's not cheap and there are other books that cover it. You can find plenty of free resources, if you are interested enough. But an idea from that book is that you not only determine a range, but you also weight certain parts of that range based on the action. You may drop a hand out of their range on the flop, but then have to bring it back when later betting changes the story. It's way too complicated to try and shoehorn into an introductory course. It is definitely something you can expand your knowledge on as you improve. It's an area that fascinates me, so I have spent money and time investigating it.
You should not completely remove a flush from a player's range just because they check. It might make it less likely, but if you have been leading the betting in position, you can expect the person to check to you without removing any flushes from their range. The video is showing an out of position spot, where you have checked in a three way pot, and that does make it more likely that a flush would bet. It does not mean a check removes the flush possibility. It just reduces it. One thing you should think about is the range they will call a bet with and the range they will bet with. Those are usually very different. Think about how your hand does against those respective ranges and then decide if you want to bet or check and let them bet into you.
In the hand given, there just aren't a lot of flushes that he can have unless he is limping super-wide. There are also not a lot of trips that he can have, unless he is playing unsuited connectors down to 87. He most likely range is dominated by AT+. Even if we start adding hands in, we only need to win here 25% of the time to break even (pot
odds are 3:1). That means he needs to have over 110 combinations of flushes, trips, full houses, and quads here. The range I was playing around with had him at around 10-12 combinations. It is hard to add a reasonable number of hands to get near 110. I know the river
equity calculation is more a "cash game" idea because you can't rebuy in a tournament, still it should be a consideration.
For example, if based on your intuition and observation you make a big fold because you give your opponent a lot of credit for having a big hand, then you're putting him on a tight range.
