Evan Jarvis: You made some really good points in this post, I can tell you think about the game at a high level.
Thanks!!! I realize the beauty of poker involves the fact that there are only three options: bet/raise, fold, or call. But with those three options, you can be so creative with the game.
Evan Jarvis: To your first point, it really depends on your definition of 'feel'. It sounds to me that when you talk about 'feel' you are referring to awareness of ranges (both yours and your opponents) how they are interacting with the board texture and an understanding of your opponent's willingness to gamble / take risk.
I actually meant like the emotions and vibes of a hand (you can be blindfolded and not even see the flop, but LITERALLY feel the emotions and vibes of hand). Sometimes you sense weakness or strength. That's what I meant by feel. I feel this is what most poker pros refer to as natural talent. Some people have greater emotional or empathic feel than others. Doesn't mean they have greater results.
Off topic, but I honestly feel the most self aware player will always win more in the long run. Phil Galfond comes to mind. I feel he gets such great results solely because he's such a great analytical thinker and he knows himself so well.
Evan Jarvis: In poker there is nothing more powerful than being able to understand how your opponent thinks, and using that understanding to bet in a way that communicates the messages you want him to receive.
Yes, I agree with what you're saying. All about telling a great story and communicating it so he would understand. This where the phrase "play to the level of your competition" comes to mind. You're not necessarily doing that, you're stooping to their level of thinking and then go one level higher so they can understand the stories you tell when you want them to understand it. Lol you can tell a great story, but if your opponent can't understand your story at all, then it's not really a great story.
And you have to profile every one of your opponents. His looseness and tightness preflop, his 3 bet calling range, etc. His willingness to gamble if the pot odds aren't in his favor to gamble. If he even understand pot odds. His folding, calling, raising statistics in certain spots and what that usually means. His bet sizing. His tendency to tilt. What's his/her mind state right now in life (could include outside of poker, just in general)...etc...etc.
Poker is all about piecing pieces of the puzzle together for each individual player. And obviously you're not going to finish the puzzle all at once unless you have alot of history. All about gathering information on your opponents as you play and what information they may have on you, and making decisions based off that.
Decisions such as not bluffing a calling station. And bluffing a tight player who plays nothing but the nuts, but knowing you can't get much value from him/her either.
Evan Jarvis: This is why I think that understanding your opponent, who they are, how they think, why they play poker, and their risk profile is the most valuable skill in poker, and that things like perfect range construction are lower on the scale of importance for maximizing profits in the long run.
You seem to emphasize the psychology of it all though as the most important. If you're a self aware fearless player, you can constantly adapt to your image thus making it harder for anyone to profile you. But self-awareness is also a part of psychology tho.
But honestly I feel most players, and even pros, aren't self aware since they can't get past their egos. They also don't push past all their inhibitions. So their willingness to bluff would be lower thus granting you an advantage over them. Maybe that's what you mean by risk profile. And their egos allow you to actually profile them accurately.
Honestly I feel when you play against great players who are extremely self aware while also being extremely self aware yourself, the psychology aspect of it all doesn't grant you or your opponents any type of advantage. It's hard to profile anyone since you can't. This is where range construction and math in general come into play. And also your emotional feel come into play and who has greater "natural talent". They all make for negligible advantages, but advantages nonetheless.