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Jurn8
Legend
Silver Level
WVHillbilly
Legend
Silver Level
Yes. Scary isn't it?
Deco
Legend
Silver Level
"With a 3PTBB/100 winrate and a standard deviation of 60, I got the following results over ten 100,000-hand samples:
1: +40 buyins
2: -20 buyins
3: +80 buyins
4: 0 buyins
5: +40 buyins
6: -5 buyins
7: +60 buyins
8: +85 buyins
9: +20 buyins
10: +40 buyins "
There a 1 in 3 chance every 100K hands I'm not going to make any money!
Therefore theres a 1 in 9 chance every 200K hands I'm not going to make any money!
That would be a year long breakeven run for me! After a year of no profit I would have long ago accepted I'm not a winning player and gave up.
I underestimate variance SO SO much
WVHillbilly
Legend
Silver Level
Rakeback pro ftw.
jdeliverer
Legend
Silver Level
B
bw07507
Legend
Silver Level
If you ever find yourself playing against huck felmuth, just remember hes tighter than you think. Ive got a bunch of hands on him and hes not the crazy maniac that he claims to be. He berates players and says stupid shit to try to tilt you and to set up an image for himself. Hes just a TAG player though.
And to prove my point:
http://www.pokertableratings.com/fulltilt-player-search/huckfelmuth
And to prove my point:
http://www.pokertableratings.com/fulltilt-player-search/huckfelmuth
Infamous1020
Visionary
Platinum Level
B
bw07507
Legend
Silver Level
Actually, Ill let u know exactly how he plays.
Over a smallish sample of 250 hands I have here are his stats. All at 100/200NL FR
VPIP: 14.6
PFR: 12.3
AF: 3.17
3bet: 4.5%
Flop cbet: 100%
Fold to 3bet: 100%
Steal: 40%
Btw, the way I'm doing this is b/c he berated me once at a table, so I have no problem letting everyone know how he plays, if i get any more datamined hands on him, Ill update.
Over a smallish sample of 250 hands I have here are his stats. All at 100/200NL FR
VPIP: 14.6
PFR: 12.3
AF: 3.17
3bet: 4.5%
Flop cbet: 100%
Fold to 3bet: 100%
Steal: 40%
Btw, the way I'm doing this is b/c he berated me once at a table, so I have no problem letting everyone know how he plays, if i get any more datamined hands on him, Ill update.
BelgoSuisse
Legend
Silver Level
meh. 15/12/3 is standard TAG at FR, not really nitty.
Infamous1020
Visionary
Platinum Level
oh ok, i dont really play FR obviously lol
Infamous1020
Visionary
Platinum Level
i have over 1k hu hands on him
if you want to know how to play him just ask
hes pretty straightforward
lolol. yeah..straightforward alright..
Deco
Legend
Silver Level
This
does not imply
also how do you know what to plug in for STDEV?
correct me if I'm wrong but
1/3 Multiplied by 1/3 = 1/9th
STDEV I guessed mine was the same as I couldn't be arsed looking mine up.
Mine is probably a little lower hence I'd have less variance but its still frightening none the less.
If you want to be picky over my accuracy I'd suggest mentioning how there is only ten samples.
What scares me is that if that link was correct we would have to have well over a million hands before we have an accurate BB/100 figure.
Surely not?
BelgoSuisse
Legend
Silver Level
there are other ways to break even for 200k hands than breaking even for the first 100k and then breaking even for the next 100k hands too.
Deco
Legend
Silver Level
True
Surely this cant be right!
How many hands are we expected to have before knowing our winrate?
Heck we'd need several hundred thousand to know were a winning player if that link is correct!
WVHillbilly
Legend
Silver Level
True
Surely this cant be right!
How many hands are we expected to have before knowing our winrate?
Heck we'd need several hundred thousand to know were a winning player if that link is correct!
The fact is you'll likely never know if you're STILL a winning player. The game changes all the time and if you don't adjust / get better / keep up you could be a losing player and not know it for a LONG time.
In a short section at the end of SSNLHE (Miller, Maheta, and Flynn's new ebook) on BRM the authors talk about a 3BB/100 winner over a significant sample who becomes a loser overnight because one player in his game adjusts to his double-barrels and folds more, while another is replaced by a slightly better player who doesn't stack off quite as often to this particular games fish. They go on to say that it will likely take this player many, many hands to realize this fact, because he will blame variance.
Also the books recommended BRM rules? 100 buy-ins (well it's actually more than you think but when pressed to put a number on it it's 100).
Edited to add: Also read F Paulsson's recent blog post on Playing Winning Poker http://fredrikpaulsson.blogspot.com/2009/07/how-to-win-at-online-poker.html
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pantin007
member
Silver Level
r u going to play poker?
WVHillbilly
Legend
Silver Level
Are you any good? Fall back plan?
JohnnyFronts
Rock Star
Silver Level
As a secondary source of income. For at least a year. So far (since I started tracking live play) my earnings rate for poker exceeds my hourly at my 9-5. I plan on staying employed for a while to keep health insurance and other benefits rolling until I know 100% that i want to play full time.
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