Polished Poker Vol. I Study Group

[fishinthesea]

KK raised on flop

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (poker stars)
$25.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, April 12, 10:16:28 ET 2015
Table Burnley (real money)
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( $24.75 USD ) - VPIP: 0, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, hands: 1
Seat 2: Player2 ( $46.79 USD ) - VPIP: 36, PFR: 24, 3B: 13, AF: 1.4, Hands: 33
Seat 3: Player3 ( $58.35 USD ) - VPIP: 38, PFR: 25, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 8
Seat 4: Player4 ( $14.75 USD ) - VPIP: 0, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 1
Seat 5: Hero ( $25.90 USD ) - VPIP: 24, PFR: 19, 3B: 8, AF: 2.3, Hands: 16009
Seat 6: Player6 ( $20.89 USD ) - VPIP: 20, PFR: 7, 3B: 0, AF: 3.0, Hands: 15
Player6 posts small blind [$0.10 USD].
Player1 posts big blind [$0.25 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ks Kc ]
Player2 raises [$0.50 USD]
Player3 folds
Player4 folds
Hero raises [$1.75 USD]
Player6 folds
Player1 folds
Player2 calls [$1.25 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2s, Ts, 4h ]
Player2 checks
Hero bets [$2.40 USD]
Player2 raises [$5.99 USD]
Hero calls [$3.59 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Th ]
Player2 checks
Hero checks
** Dealing River ** [ 5d ]
Player2 checks
Hero bets [$6.00 USD]

How does the line I took here look? Too little on river?

 

[mottotom27]

I'm going to put a last X big hands areas where you can review them in Leak buster and export them. Is there anywhere else or anything that would make it easier to grab hands when you're reviewing leaks in LB that you can think of?

as well as last X hands maybe also do one for biggest winning/losing pots overall? also do we have to redownload leakbuster for these new features or should it just crop up when we load it?

 

[John A]

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (Poker Stars)
$25.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, April 12, 10:16:28 ET 2015
Table Burnley (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( $24.75 USD ) - VPIP: 0, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 1
Seat 2: Player2 ( $46.79 USD ) - VPIP: 36, PFR: 24, 3B: 13, AF: 1.4, Hands: 33
Seat 3: Player3 ( $58.35 USD ) - VPIP: 38, PFR: 25, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 8
Seat 4: Player4 ( $14.75 USD ) - VPIP: 0, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 1
Seat 5: Hero ( $25.90 USD ) - VPIP: 24, PFR: 19, 3B: 8, AF: 2.3, Hands: 16009
Seat 6: Player6 ( $20.89 USD ) - VPIP: 20, PFR: 7, 3B: 0, AF: 3.0, Hands: 15
Player6 posts small blind [$0.10 USD].
Player1 posts big blind [$0.25 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ks Kc ]
Player2 raises [$0.50 USD]
Player3 folds
Player4 folds
Hero raises [$1.75 USD]
Player6 folds
Player1 folds
Player2 calls [$1.25 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2s, Ts, 4h ]
Player2 checks
Hero bets [$2.40 USD]
Player2 raises [$5.99 USD]
Hero calls [$3.59 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Th ]
Player2 checks
Hero checks
** Dealing River ** [ 5d ]
Player2 checks
Hero bets [$6.00 USD]

How does the line I took here look? Too little on river?

Yeah, I think the turn check is ok considering the flop action. I'd expect him to raise more with a flush draw. And yes, the river sizing needs to be bigger. You called a flop raise and checked the turn and there's a missed flush on a low board. You're going to be hero called by a wide range here so this is a spot you want to take advantage of.

 

[mottotom27]

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 18.68, PFR: 16.09, 3Bet Preflop: 3.76, Hands: 354)
SB: 105 BB (VPIP: 17.45, PFR: 14.06, 3Bet Preflop: 7.04, Hands: 388)
BB: 99.9 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
UTG: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 13.04, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
UTG+1: 205.3 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 10)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 10.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 61)
Hero (MP+1): 100 BB
MP+2: 137.9 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
CO: 115.2 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J:diamond: A:club:

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 7:spade: 7:diamond: 2:diamond:
BB checks, Hero bets 4.1 BB, BB calls 4.1 BB

Turn: (14.7 BB, 2 players) J:heart:
BB checks, Hero bets 9 BB, BB calls 9 BB

River: (32.7 BB, 2 players) 5:club:
BB bets 83.8 BB and is all-in, hero ??

villain unknown. like on the river i was prepared to call a pot sized bet but when he just overships it for 2.5x pot i just don't know how often the 10nl population is bluffing in this spot. so even though he doesn't rep much should i fold? also i considered checking back flop with A high. generally with A high on dry paired boards do you check to try and get to showdown or bet to protect your equity and prevent yourself from getting bluffed off the hand?

 

[John A]

I think the flop value bet is fine. River is a fold. With no reads and no info, even though he doesn't rep much it's a fold. If he was bluffing, he could get more of your range to fold with a 45 BB river bet. So it's the John A rule (I'm going to start putting my name to common wisdom like some other pros lol) - If an opponent could accomplish the same goal with a smaller bet as a bluff, he's probably not bluffing.

 

[Figaroo2]

By John's Law a good fold then?

IPoker, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players


SB: $15.46 (154.6 bb)
BB: $7 (70 bb)
UTG: $5.22 (52.2 bb)
MP: $3.57 (35.7 bb)
CO: $10.78 (107.8 bb) vpip70/pfr33/agg%27 in 178 hands
Hero (BTN): $10 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with K

A

2 folds, CO calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, CO calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.95) Q

A

2

(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.76, CO raises to $10.38, Hero folds

Results: $2.47 pot ($0.16 rake)
Final Board: Q

A

2

CO mucked and won $2.31 ($1.15 net)
Hero mucked K

A

and lost (-$1.16 net)

178 hands is enough to know this guy aint aggressive post flop without a strong hand. I did tank for a while but the agg % was too low for me.... I said 'crazy' in the chat window to see if i could get a response and he claimed a bluff with dozens of smiley faces...I didn't believe him

 

[mottotom27]

I think the flop value bet is fine. River is a fold. With no reads and no info, even though he doesn't rep much it's a fold. If he was bluffing, he could get more of your range to fold with a 45 BB river bet. So it's the John A rule (I'm going to start putting my name to common wisdom like some other pros lol) - If an opponent could accomplish the same goal with a smaller bet as a bluff, he's probably not bluffing.

yea the John A rule seems like it should be "baluga theorem 2" seems pretty sound to me since more often than not when i look up these ridiculously massive overbets it's just some super nutted hand looking to get paid. so i did fold but it did leave me wondering what he had, it better not have been a busted flush draw!

 

[mottotom27]

By John's Law a good fold then?

IPoker, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players


SB: $15.46 (154.6 bb)
BB: $7 (70 bb)
UTG: $5.22 (52.2 bb)
MP: $3.57 (35.7 bb)
CO: $10.78 (107.8 bb) vpip70/pfr33/agg%27 in 178 hands
Hero (BTN): $10 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with K

A

2 folds, CO calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, CO calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.95) Q

A

2

(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.76, CO raises to $10.38, Hero folds

Results: $2.47 pot ($0.16 rake)
Final Board: Q

A

2

CO mucked and won $2.31 ($1.15 net)
Hero mucked K

A

and lost (-$1.16 net)

178 hands is enough to know this guy aint aggressive post flop without a strong hand. I did tank for a while but the agg % was too low for me.... I said 'crazy' in the chat window to see if i could get a response and he claimed a bluff with dozens of smiley faces...I didn't believe him

given he looks like a passive fish seems like an easy fold to me. with no reads its meh

 

[mottotom27]

i've been doing a bit of math recently trying to work out the profitability of shoving over a button 4bet from the blinds with AKo, JJ, TT, AQs vs unknowns at 10nl. i assumed that the population tendency is to respond to the 5bet with the following frequencies...

60%: call with a range of JJ+/AK
35%: Fold bluffs (we pick up the pot)
5%: call light with a range of 99-TT/AQ

using these frequencies and assuming i 3bet to 10bb and he 4bet to 22bb, i calculated that shoving AKo had an EV of 6.5bb, JJ had 2.5bb, TT had -2bb, and AQs had -4bb. this leads me to conclude we should 3bet/jam AKo and JJ, 3bet/fold AQs and maybe just flat TT vs an unknown in this spot (from the big blind at least).

i was wondering how reasonable do you think these assumptions and conclusions are vs random 10nl players? and do you think anything changes for CO vs BTN instead of BTN vs blinds?

 

[John A]

By John's Law a good fold then?

IPoker, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players


SB: $15.46 (154.6 bb)
BB: $7 (70 bb)
UTG: $5.22 (52.2 bb)
MP: $3.57 (35.7 bb)
CO: $10.78 (107.8 bb) vpip70/pfr33/agg%27 in 178 hands
Hero (BTN): $10 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with K

A

2 folds, CO calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, CO calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.95) Q

A

2

(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.76, CO raises to $10.38, Hero folds

Results: $2.47 pot ($0.16 rake)
Final Board: Q

A

2

CO mucked and won $2.31 ($1.15 net)
Hero mucked K

A

and lost (-$1.16 net)

178 hands is enough to know this guy aint aggressive post flop without a strong hand. I did tank for a while but the agg % was too low for me.... I said 'crazy' in the chat window to see if i could get a response and he claimed a bluff with dozens of smiley faces...I didn't believe him

Yeah, guys like this are going to be calling with their draws. Good fold. But the "rule" wouldn't apply here. Not on a draw heavy flop shove. I think the rule applies most aptly on river bets.

 

[John A]

yea the John A rule seems like it should be "baluga theorem 2" seems pretty sound to me since more often than not when i look up these ridiculously massive overbets it's just some super nutted hand looking to get paid. so i did fold but it did leave me wondering what he had, it better not have been a busted flush draw!

I'm printing T-shirts with John A poker theorems. Woot!

 

[Figaroo2]

going on tilt

had to stop tonight.
Guys please reaffirm for me that these are just coolers. One after the other bang bang same table my whole day lost.

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players

SB: $25.70 (102.8 bb)
BB: $25 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $21.31 (85.2 bb)
UTG+2: $25 (100 bb)
MP1: $25 (100 bb) Tight reg
Hero (MP2): $26.85 (107.4 bb)
MP3: $20.19 (80.8 bb) fish
CO: $25 (100 bb)
BTN: $38.16 (152.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A

A

2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.60, MP3 calls $2.60, 4 folds, MP1 calls $1.85

Flop: ($8.15) 6

8

K

(3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $3.89, MP3 calls $3.89, MP1 folds

Turn: ($15.93) 4

(2 players)
Hero bets $15.21, MP3 calls $13.70 (I'm not sure what he has as he's a fish but I expect him to have a King here most of the the time)

River: ($43.33) J

(2 players)

Results: $43.33 pot ($1.95 rake)
Final Board: 6

8

K

4

J

Hero showed A

A

and lost (-$20.19 net)
MP3 showed 6

6

and won $41.38 ($21.19 net)

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

SB: $33.26 (133 bb)
BB: $25.60 (102.4 bb)
UTG+2: $26.61 (106.4 bb)
MP1: $25.86 (103.4 bb)
MP2: $25 (100 bb)
Hero (MP3): $25 (100 bb)
CO: $47.52 (190.1 bb) (fish that has my money flat calling a three bet from mp with 66 w am ker)
BTN: $25 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T

T

UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.75, MP2 folds, Hero calls $0.75, 4 folds

Flop: ($1.85) T

9

8

(2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $0.88, MP1 raises to $2.64, Hero raises to $6.16, MP1 raises to $9.68, Hero raises to $24.25 and is all-in, MP1 calls $14.57

Turn: ($50.35) K

(2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($50.35) 6

(2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $50.35 pot ($2 rake)
Final Board: T

9

8

K

6

MP1 showed J

Q

and won $48.35 ($23.35 net)
Hero mucked T

T

and lost (-$25 net)
honestly its so long since I filled to a boat in these sort of circs I can't remember.

 

[Figaroo2]

getting a grip

Ok 5 mins to cool down, back into it and a recovery made. John was right when he said it is how you manage the run bad that is important...

 

[mottotom27]

Ok 5 mins to cool down, back into it and a recovery made. John was right when he said it is how you manage the run bad that is important...

one thing that has really helped me a lot with tilt this month is just hiding my bankroll graph from pokertracker so then i won't know how much i made or lost each day. you should give it a try, it has really allowed me to focus more on my game rather than short term variance. Whereas if i'm constantly checking my bankroll graph and see a sudden drop then it sticks in my mind and i lose confidence in my play.

 

[Figaroo2]

one thing that has really helped me a lot with tilt this month is just hiding my bankroll graph from pokertracker so then i won't know how much i made or lost each day. you should give it a try, it has really allowed me to focus more on my game rather than short term variance. Whereas if i'm constantly checking my bankroll graph and see a sudden drop then it sticks in my mind and i lose confidence in my play.

Yeah I don't check mid session anymore, I was pleasantly surprised to find id booked a small win after the two big losses.

 

[mottotom27]

Yeah I don't check mid session anymore, I was pleasantly surprised to find id booked a small win after the two big losses.

good job! i'd go as far as only looking at the end of the month at my graph since the results over say 5k hands should never be that important.

 

[John A]

had to stop tonight.
Guys please reaffirm for me that these are just coolers. One after the other bang bang same table my whole day lost.


honestly its so long since I filled to a boat in these sort of circs I can't remember.

I know it sucks when you're having a bad day. We've all been there. But I also know you're good enough to not even have me answer those questions.

Just get yourself a break, get your mind off poker, and then return when you feel refreshed. You can be one of the best players in the world, but if you don't learn how to walk away, re-group, and play when you're on your A game, you'll just piss what you win away when you're off your game and pushing too hard.

Remember, the games will always be there.

 

[John A]

one thing that has really helped me a lot with tilt this month is just hiding my bankroll graph from pokertracker so then i won't know how much i made or lost each day. you should give it a try, it has really allowed me to focus more on my game rather than short term variance. Whereas if i'm constantly checking my bankroll graph and see a sudden drop then it sticks in my mind and i lose confidence in my play.

Yes, good advice. I highly recommend just reviewing big pot hands and don't look at graphs or results as much as possible. At the end of the month, take a peek, but don't let it rule you day by day.

 

[mottotom27]

Yes, good advice. I highly recommend just reviewing big pot hands and don't look at graphs or results as much as possible. At the end of the month, take a peek, but don't let it rule you day by day.

yea that's what i've been doing recently and so far it's working

 

[mottotom27]

BTN: 138.1 BB
SB: 133.2 BB (VPIP: 10.71, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 30)
BB: 51.5 BB (VPIP: 7.38, PFR: 3.70, 3Bet Preflop: 2.83, Hands: 249)
UTG: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 14.35, PFR: 8.97, 3Bet Preflop: 1.20, Hands: 226)
Hero (UTG+1): 100 BB
MP: 164.7 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
MP+1: 155.2 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
MP+2: 113.5 BB (VPIP: 18.87, PFR: 15.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 53)
CO: 74.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q<font color='black'>♠</font> K<font color='black'>♠</font>

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) Q<font color='black'>♣</font> Q<font color='red'>♥</font> A<font color='red'>♥</font>
Hero bets 4.8 BB, BTN calls 4.8 BB

Turn: (17.1 BB, 2 players) 4<font color='red'>♦</font>
Hero bets 11 BB, BTN calls 11 BB

River: (39.1 BB, 2 players) T<font color='red'>♦</font>
Hero bets 24 BB, BTN raises to 58 BB, fold

BTN wins 83.2 BB

Here's an interesting hand. I kinda wanted to throw up when he raised smallish on the river cos i thought my hand was strong but i just didn't know what i beat then. maybe a couple of QJ or QT combos if he chose to raise those?? or is he gonna show up with boats too often here? it's tough since there are hardly any combos that beat me but it's hard to see what i can beat here...

 

[Figaroo2]

Hmmm you missed off the button stats but even so I'm calling here a fair percentage of the time.
Im at work and can't access my equity tools but in my head and in terms combos it must be close to a call.
we lose to 6 combos of AA &AQ. & 1 QTs and maybe sick/less likely QTo (9 in total)
tie with 3 KQ.
We beat 4 QJ
If he has any Qx he probably puts you on Ax and is raising for perceived value.
Id say him having AT cancels out his QTo
I Take it the pot is 124bb and its 58 to call so we are getting just over 2-1.
It must be close so depends on the player type which we don't have.

 

[mottotom27]

sorry no stats on button yea i still haven't worked out how to find the hand equity calculator for this specific hand, but agree it's a close one. we're actually getting better odds than you suggest since we already put in money on the river so it's more like 3:1. even still, we have to consider what his preflop range is for calling an EP open, and it's going to be weighted more towards AQ, KQs and slowplayed AA than hands like QJo or ATo, and i don't see any reason for him to raise AT on the river anyway (his paired ten is counterfeited). so yea i'm leaning towards a fold now but i'd be interested to hear John's opinion on this one

 

[Figaroo2]

I agree the river raise at these stakes indicates you probably are beaten here by AQ or AA but at higher stakes where opponents can bluff raise and seek out thinner value I think you have to look them up sometimes. People do call wider on the button which is why Id like to see the button stats to see who we are up against. Someone loose could have suited heart connectors here and realise that AK is in a tough spot here on the river.

 

[mottotom27]

I agree the river raise at these stakes indicates you probably are beaten here by AQ or AA but at higher stakes where opponents can bluff raise and seek out thinner value I think you have to look them up sometimes. People do call wider on the button which is why Id like to see the button stats to see who we are up against. Someone loose could have suited heart connectors here and realise that AK is in a tough spot here on the river.

yea obviously from a game theory perspective it's a bad fold and super exploitable since it means essentially we're only calling with boats. but it all comes down to whether or not people will exploit us at micros and i'm guessing probably not so we might be able to make an exploitative fold here, but i'll bear that in mind as i move up

 

[Figaroo2]

Thinking about it only a queen or AA is realistically raising here . There is too much chance from your triple barrel you have a queen here and won't fold to punt off 58bb.
Doesn't mean we still can't chop or beat QJ. I would raise a Q here in the absence of any flush and likely straights especially QK. At these stakes I like your fold... interesting hand. Also interested to see you on the zoom tables not my personal choice, there are some very good regs in zoom I think I find more fish/recreationals on conventional tables where they are also easier to identify
Anyone else with some input?