Pacific, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
SB: $21.92 (109.6 bb)
BB: $22.87 (114.4 bb) - VPIP: 17, PFR: 12, 3B: 6, AF: 2.7, Hands: 378
Hero (UTG+1): $20 (100 bb)
UTG+2: $13.29 (66.5 bb)
MP1: $16.93 (84.7 bb)
MP2: $5.78 (28.9 bb)
MP3: $19.64 (98.2 bb)
CO: $18.45 (92.3 bb)
BTN: $20.78 (103.9 bb)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q
Q
Hero raises to $0.60, 7 folds,
BB raises to $2, Hero calls $1.40
Flop: ($4.10) 5
4
5
(2 players)
BB bets $2.05, Hero calls $2.05
Turn: ($8.20) 6
(2 players)
BB bets $4.10, Hero calls $4.10
River: ($16.40) J
(2 players)
BB bets $14.72,
Hero?
Villain is a decent reg, he is only 3betting out of the BB 3.6% and against my range UTG I can only see us up against AA KK AK JJ here
We lose to AA 6combos KK 6combos JJ 3 combos. Beat AK 16 combos
My equity Calc shows we have 51% here
So do we just call this off now we have to call $11.82 to win just over $31?
We clearly have enough equity to warrant calling on the pot odds but is he ever really doing this with AK at this point knowing I've called twice?
How much should we factor in his high wtsd and general river aggression?