How about this,
1 - villain is 22/0 after 40 hands with 11% agg.
2 - villain is 30/24 after 100 hands with 38% agg.
What's the plan for the flop and for the rest of the hand?
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
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Hero (SB): $10 (100 bb)
BB: $10.37 (103.7 bb)
MP: $10 (100 bb)
CO: $10.10 (101 bb)
BTN: $10.47 (104.7 bb)
Preflop: Hero is SB with K
A
MP folds,
CO raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30,
Hero raises to $1.30, 2 folds, BTN calls $1
Flop: ($3) 5
J
2
(2 players)
Hero
Cool, thanks for the example. So monotone board where hero gets no piece and no real back door draws. So this is very player dependent and this is how I look at it. I'll fire a c-bet at this board when:
1) My opponent is pretty loose pre-flop. I know his range will be wide enough at that point that I can push him off a good amount of his whiffs as well. He'll also have more SC's than other opponents, and only 1/4th of those will have hit hard. The others he'll be folding on this texture.
2) My opponent just folds a lot in re-raised pots on the flop. This should be pretty straight forward on why, but you just want to make sure you really have a good sample before you're firing here.
And I won't fire against tight opponents, or really loose opponents that can't fold post flop. The tight players will have something much more often on these boards, and the looser more aggressive players will also float and bluff at a higher frequency.
So If it bet, I'm betting 1/2 pot or slightly less. The reality is against someone, if I'm reading this hand correct, like BTN, Hero will have around 35%
equity in this hand, so we don't want to just abandon that money there. We want to force our opponent to fold his weak mid pairs w/ no club, which will be heavy in his range, and probably some of his SC's based on the kind of opponent he is.
But the bottom line in these spots is I'd keep it simple at these stakes. Just fire once, don't try and rep a flush if a 4th one comes unless you get a turn check and you get one of those bubbly feelings in your tum tum that you can push your opponent off his hand. lol Otherwise, just fire and give up or check / fold against your other opponents.
Ace Poker Drills
Poker Equity Calculator
Board: Jc 5c 2c
Equity Win Tie Hand Range
34.221% 28.5884% 5.6326% [ AhKh ]
65.779% 60.1465% 5.6326% [ AJs+(100), AQo+(100), KK(100), 55-JJ(100), KQs(100), T9s(100), JTs(100), 98s(100), 87s(100) ]
Tighter opponent:
Ace Poker Drills
Poker Equity Calculator
Board: Jc 5c 2c
Equity Win Tie Hand Range
28.5275% 22.437% 6.0905% [ AhKh ]
71.4725% 65.382% 6.0905% [ AJs+(100), AQo+(100), 55-KK(100), JTs(100) ]