Polished Poker Vol. I Study Group

[duggs]

Reminds me of a toy game,

villain has 70% value hands, and 30% bluffs, we only beat his bluffs

the pot is 10 and villain always will bet 5 on each the flop, turn and river. should you call flop? turn? river?

No one has an answer?

 

[Sneaky Feet]

No one has an answer?

I'll take a shot at it. It's easy for me to be wrong because y"all know I don't know shit (lol y'all)

Wouldn't it be situational? As stated, If your calling every time, your loosing 100 every 10 hands so imo it would be no.

It would be situational depending on how many times we're calling with the nuts. Villain may be value betting top pair or set or what ever but that has no bearing on what we have in our hand that beats them.

If villain is value betting 70% of the time but we've got the nuts 30% of the time then calling is the correct answer. You're winning 5 widgets every 10 hands.

Maybe?

Edit:
Nevermind. I missed the point where you said we only beat his bluffs.

 

[John A]

This is where we first disagree, especially talking about at the micros, people dont bluff enough, people dont value bet thinly enough, I dont think we face as many triples after a double as you imply, I think alot of the time rivers checks to us and we can play well, I also think alot of the time we can comfortably fold knowing we only made a mistake against a small % of possible players.

They do over value hands though, and if you don't have info on someone, you don't know how much they are over valuing their hand in a narrow EV spot. I see guys at micros firing again on the river quite a lot w/ a hand they should be c/fing. The main point you're missing is that you're probably ahead, there's value to get from other parts of your opponents range, and by min raising you take control of the hand on the river. So you're just taking control of the hand and sometimes you might be VBing the river as well, turning your hand into a bluff, etc...

I see reasons to raise turn generally, but im just not convinced when we are only really beating bluffs, or trying to get to showdown is the right approach at micro stakes

Well, we're not saying you're only beating bluffs. But any ways, it should be out job to convince you correct? Nod yes. Great... well, why don't you set up the equation for us since you're a math guy (I'm a philosophy guy - don't you love labels?), and then we can talk about each decision, and the frequency we think someone will do X action. This is really the crux of the issue. I think maybe then we could draw it out a little clearer since it will be in your native language.

So we are referring to raising as narrow EV? or are we saying that we have a positive expectation when facing the bet on the turn?

Narrow EV = slightly +EV. Raising is good if we're +EV no? But we're not so confident that we want to face a big river bet. Micro players do bluff busted draws, over value hands, and I think plenty of people have been on spots where they think they have the best hand on the turn, but they don't think so by much, and they don't want to leave the destiny of their EV in someone else's hands.

I just dont see why we cant assume to know population barreling tendencies, but can know how they react facing minraises on the turn, why do we get to assume 1 and not the other?

Well, we don't need to assume. We can try it and then make some conclusions. I'm offering about 11 years of online playing and coaching where my conclusion is that players will only 3-bet a turn raise if they have it. So when you have top pair in a narrow EV spot, and your opponent has a set, you won't be stuck calling another bet on the river. You'll be done w/ the hand. Otherwise, they will just call and almost never re-pop. At the same time, I can confidently say I don't know how often someone over values their hand, how aggro they are, etc... that will vary w/ no info. But someone reacting to a min raise seems pretty consistent in my experience. I know there's a math expression for this that might help you understand, but I haven't done much math in the past 25 years honestly (other than basic poker math).

That 2nd part isnt very fair, I just showed that even if we arent sure or face different types we can approximate and showed a fictional situation to explain to for others reading, I didnt once claim to run those analysis at the table, Nor do I run a host of other analysis in game. Im sure you arent claiming to know how all of your opponents react to a turn raise, just as im not claiming to know all players river strategies, Im just claiming the same as you, we know enough to make +EV plays and exploitable plays.

Sure... but maybe others can chime in and see what they think about which we understand more as a population tendency. It is possible to know one thing about a population, but not another. These are mutually exclusive ideas even though they revolve around a similar premise (aggression).

 

[John A]

No one has an answer?

I thought this was a joke. If the only option is call/fold, then we're calling 15 to win 25, so clearly no.

 

[rhombus]

Reminds me of a toy game,

villain has 70% value hands, and 30% bluffs, we only beat his bluffs

the pot is 10 and villain always will bet 5 on each the flop, turn and river. should you call flop? turn? river?
No one has an answer?

Call all 3 streets maybe

Flop ~ (15 * 0.3) - (5 * 0.7) = 1 BBs

Turn ~ (25 * 0.3) - (5 * 0.7) = 4 BBs

River ~ (35 * 0.3) - (5 * 0.7) = 7 BBs

 

[John A]

Call all 3 streets maybe

Flop ~ (15 * 0.3) - (5 * 0.7) = 1 BBs

Turn ~ (25 * 0.3) - (5 * 0.7) = 4 BBs

River ~ (35 * 0.3) - (5 * 0.7) = 7 BBs

The problem Rhom is you can't win your own money. You have odds to call the flop, but once you call the flop, you have odds to call every street, except that by the time you get to the river, you'll have called 15 to win 25 and you're only winning 30% of the time.

 

[rhombus]

The problem Rhom is you can't win your own money. You have odds to call the flop, but once you call the flop, you have odds to call every street, except that by the time you get to the river, you'll have called 15 to win 25 and you're only winning 30% of the time.

I thought once you called the money in the pot isn't yours anymore
so is the first part right

Flop ~ (15 * 0.3) - (5 * 0.7) = 1 BBs

 

[John A]

I thought once you called the money in the pot isn't yours anymore
so is the first part right

Flop ~ (15 * 0.3) - (5 * 0.7) = 1 BBs

Correct, but in this case we know all of the results, so we can just do the simple math. If we didn't know betting amounts and equity, then we'd take it like a normal poker issue, street by street where once you put the money in, it's gone.

However, we know we're risking 15 to win 25 w/o having to do anything else.

 

[duggs]

I thought this was a joke. If the only option is call/fold, then we're calling 15 to win 25, so clearly no.

lol i didnt mean you, but yes i thought it would be a useful question for some.

 

[rhombus]

How do I stop the Bleeding.

Havent played zoom for 4 days as seem to be running bad so played tonight as I needed about 1200 hands to get to 40K hands.

Only managed 455 and had to stop before I started to spew

1st hand KK AIPF ran into AA Villain 3 hands 100/67 AG 100% 3B 100
2nd Hand Posted below FOLD/CALL River???
3rd Hand 77 ran into AA - SB vs BB Villain 19/13 AG 40% did actually 4bet 25bbs and planned to fold but ended up calling LOL
4th Hand tried to bluff in SB v BB Battle as he was betting weak so CR turn and bet River to rep 2 pair or a 5 he had KJ
5th Hand got CR on turn and folded to their river bet

Got Dealt Aces twice but never got paid
Got DEalt KK 5 Times and got stacked stacked twice.

Another hand when flopped a SET I folded (posted at the end)

2nd Hand Villain - 22/0 Ag40% after only 9 hands
poker stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $5.53 (110.6 bb)
BB: $3.52 (70.4 bb)
UTG: $4.83 (96.6 bb)
MP: $8.40 (168 bb)
CO: $5.80 (116 bb)
Hero (BTN): $5.76 (115.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with K

K

UTG folds, MP calls $0.05, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.25, SB folds, BB calls $0.20, MP calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.77) 2

6

J

(3 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $0.50, BB folds, MP calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.77) 8

(2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $1.30, MP calls $1.30

River: ($4.37) 8

(2 players)
MP bets $4.19, Hero calls $3.71 and is all-in

Results: $11.79 pot ($0.49 rake)
Final Board: 2

6

J

8

8

MP showed A

8

and won $11.30 ($5.54 net)
Hero showed K

K

and lost (-$5.76 net)

Hand Where I flopped a SET - thoughts /?????
Stats UTG+1 26/19 AG 43% 94 hands
SB 15/11/40% 75 Hands

When SB donked the turn when the ace appeared I'm thinking either 45 which makes sense as they just called preflop and now they lead when 2 early rasies range hit their Aces. Then when Pre Flop Raise Shoved Im thinking Maybe JJ or AA.

On second thoughts If he had JJ or AA then would he check the flop with a flush draw with 4 players. If it was me I'd lead, so maybe he had AJ for 2 pairs

Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $7.44 (148.8 bb)
BB: $5.07 (101.4 bb)
UTG: $12.43 (248.6 bb)
MP: $5.02 (100.4 bb)
Hero (CO): $5.19 (103.8 bb)
BTN: $5.11 (102.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 2

2

UTG folds, MP raises to $0.17, Hero calls $0.17, BTN folds, SB calls $0.15, BB calls $0.12

Flop: ($0.68) J

3

2

(4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $0.43, SB calls $0.43, BB folds, MP calls $0.43

Turn: ($1.97) A

(3 players)
SB bets $1.34, MP raises to $4.42 and is all-in, 2 folds

Results: $4.65 pot ($0.19 rake)
Final Board: J

3

2

A

SB mucked and lost (-$1.94 net)
MP mucked and won $4.46 ($2.52 net)
Hero mucked 2

2

and lost (-$0.60 net)

 

[rhombus]

Correct, but in this case we know all of the results, so we can just do the simple math. If we didn't know betting amounts and equity, then we'd take it like a normal poker issue, street by street where once you put the money in, it's gone.

However, we know we're risking 15 to win 25 w/o having to do anything else.

AHH ok I thought it was 3 separate questions when Duggs put
should you call flop? turn? river?

Ok ill go with what you said when you said NO LOL

(25 * 0.3) - (15 * 0.7) = -3

for sneaky, the guy with the HOT gf

EV = (%W * $W) – (%L * $L)


http://www.splitsuit.com/simple-poker-expected-value-formula

 

[duggs]

AHH ok I thought it was 3 separate questions when Duggs put
should you call flop? turn? river?

Ok ill go with what you said when you said NO LOL

(25 * 0.3) - (15 * 0.7) = -3

for sneaky, the guy with the HOT gf

EV = (%W * $W) – (%L * $L)


http://www.splitsuit.com/simple-poker-expected-value-formula

you should fold flop, but you should call turn and river

 

[Sneaky Feet]

3 barrel buff anyone?

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

CO ($18.97)
Button ($5)
Hero (SB) ($5)
BB ($2.48)
UTG ($3.48)
MP ($9.13)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A

, Q

3 folds, Button raises to $0.15, Hero raises to $0.50, 1 fold, Button calls $0.35

Flop: ($1.05) J

, 7

, K

(2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, Button calls $0.80

Turn: ($2.65) 2

(2 players)
Hero bets $2.15, Button calls $2.15

River: ($6.95) 3

(2 players)
Hero bets $1.55 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $6.95 | Rake: $0.29

Results below:

Spoiler

Hero didn't show A

, Q

(high card, Ace).

Hand 2.

Should I have shoved the turn with the additional outs? Villain is a calling station but with the re-raise I had a feeling he was on Jx

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/

MP ($18.97)
CO ($5)
Hero (Button) ($8.21)
SB ($2.43)
BB ($3.48)
UTG ($9.13)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8

, 7

2 folds, CO raises to $0.15, Hero calls $0.15, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.37) 5

, J

, 8

(2 players)
CO bets $0.17, Hero raises to $0.44, CO calls $0.27

Turn: ($1.25) K

(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.70, CO calls $0.70

River: ($2.65) 10

(2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

Total pot: $2.65 | Rake: $0.11

Results below:

Spoiler

Hero didn't show 8

, 7

(one pair, eights).
CO had Q

, J

(one pair, Jacks).
Outcome: CO won $2.54

 

[Figaroo2]

Hand one I think you can make the turn half pot to give yourself more ammo for the river.
If he has the Ac and it certainly looks like it then he isn't going away to any turn bet.
Hand 2 I'm never shoving the turn it's a massive overbet that isn't required. It's like that video nasty and your hand with the set. If he's slow playing your fcked.
The place to bluff is the river as the Ten fills a lot of straights but again just raise like a solid value bet 75% it's enough to get the job done and we don't get stacked if he happens to hit something strong. Look at it again his hand can't stand any decent river bet.

 

[Sneaky Feet]

Hand one I think you can make the turn half pot to give yourself more ammo for the river.
If he has the Ac and it certainly looks like it then he isn't going away to any turn bet.
Hand 2 I'm never shoving the turn it's a massive overbet that isn't required. It's like that video nasty and your hand with the set. If he's slow playing your fcked.
The place to bluff is the river as the Ten fills a lot of straights but again just raise like a solid value bet 75% it's enough to get the job done and we don't get stacked if he happens to hit something strong. Look at it again his hand can't stand any decent river bet.

Thanks Figaroo. Ya good point on the shove turn idea. It would be no better than what those other guys did and I am trying to hold myself to a higher standard. I'll give the 3/4 bet size a go next time. Having another look at it I do see all the straights that complete with the 10 falling so I'm getting what you're saying.

Hand 1 makes sense as well. If he was looking at +EV the shorter stack that I shoved with on the river makes it a lot more valuable for villain to call in that position. I can see how adding anything to that would put me in a better position.

 

[John A]

AHH ok I thought it was 3 separate questions when Duggs put
should you call flop? turn? river?

Ok ill go with what you said when you said NO LOL

(25 * 0.3) - (15 * 0.7) = -3

for sneaky, the guy with the HOT gf

EV = (%W * $W) – (%L * $L)


http://www.splitsuit.com/simple-poker-expected-value-formula

Yeah, maybe it was. It wasn't a super clear question.

 

[rhombus]

thought id scramble to 40K only lost 2 more buyins a flip and as a 70/30 Fav. Last 5K hands brutal

 

[rhombus]

Leakbuster stats for 40K hands above. Where am I going wrong

 

[John A]

Leakbuster stats for 40K hands above. Where am I going wrong

Well, for only opening 15% the w$sd is pretty low. Either running bad or making bad river decisions. Need a little more info on that. Still need to get the aggression up a little. You're opening more hands from the SB than the button.

It's looking a lot better though.

 

[rhombus]

Well, for only opening 15% the w$sd is pretty low. Either running bad or making bad river decisions. Need a little more info on that. Still need to get the aggression up a little. You're opening more hands from the SB than the button.

It's looking a lot better though.

ok Thanks.

Not sure about making bad River decisions but know Im not running great as $EV diff +$24.52 and All-In EV $15.39 (Not sure difference between these 2)

Also seem to run into top of peoples range alot

Well, for only opening 15% the w$sd is pretty low.
Thats where I struggle, it might say a particualar stat need to fall in a cetain area but then certain other stats can have an effect on that i.e. a lower PFR i.e. 15% affects what the w$sd.

Would it be better if I ran leakbuster and posted stats from there

 

[John A]

ok Thanks.

Not sure about making bad River decisions but know Im not running great as $EV diff +$24.52 and All-In EV $15.39 (Not sure difference between these 2)

Also seem to run into top of peoples range alot

Well, for only opening 15% the w$sd is pretty low.
Thats where I struggle, it might say a particualar stat need to fall in a cetain area but then certain other stats can have an effect on that i.e. a lower PFR i.e. 15% affects what the w$sd.

Would it be better if I ran leakbuster and posted stats from there

Yes, post them up. It will make it a lot easier for sure.

But yeah, if you're running bad, then that's going to effect w$sd. But as your PFR gets lower, your w$sd should go up. You have a better overall range, so when you do get to showdown, those hands hold more often.

 

[Figaroo2]

At first glance its difficult to see where its going wrong as the stats look really good. Looking at the graph you started really hot and then pretty much lost it all. The red line goes from flat to falling off quite steeply.
I see this in my charts from time to time and I'm thinking this is tilt. You start playing well then suffer a couple of beats and then first I start folding too much as I don't want to get stacked again then when I lose another hand I should win it leads me to calling people down when I should be folding because you can't believe your premium has been cracked again. It's like you have to call just to make sure they have it and to confirm how unlucky you are running.
One thing I notice in the hands you post is that you seem to be playing for stacks every time you flop tpgk or better. The KK example above where you call off the river after he leads into you with trip 8s is a clear example of a hand you played perfect to the end and he got stupid lucky, guaranteed to tilt me that one. But if he leads into you there its never a bluff and you need to find the discipline to fold here. We talked about this before, it's never a bluff because 5nl players can't fold their premium overpairs in that spot.

One of the problems I find in zoom is the players are usually either very good regs or total beginners. I think if you know who you are up against you can start to back off if you meet resistance from a reg on the flop especially on dry boards.
Of course we're stacking off against fish with our overpairs but not usually the regs so we really need to use the hud early in the hand to assess our opponent.
Also are you reviewing your sessions properly?
Some pertinent notes on the regs should help make better decisions. It's too easy to just play.
John talks about the little things in poker they do all add up and add polish to your game, reviewing and note taking is part of that

 

[Sneaky Feet]

Some pertinent notes on the regs should help make better decisions. It's too easy to just play.
John talks about the little things in poker they do all add up and add polish to your game, reviewing and note taking is part of that

May I highjack briefly? I've been meaning to ask this question. What are some good notes to start with? How do you guys zero in on traits of other players?

 

[Figaroo2]

Good question. For starters.
Anything you think might help you make a better decision down the line against the same player.

I note things that don't fit with their hud stats or are unusual in their own right such as big overshoves and whether it was for value or as a bluff.
Also where they are over valuing and will stack off with tptk.
What hands are they 4/5 bet shoving pre ?
Do they like suited cards?

In particular notes like calls 3bets oop with small pairs when your top2 gets done by a small set when you would have expected someone to fold pre.

 

[rhombus]

Yes, post them up. It will make it a lot easier for sure.

But yeah, if you're running bad, then that's going to effect w$sd. But as your PFR gets lower, your w$sd should go up. You have a better overall range, so when you do get to showdown, those hands hold more often.

40 K hands 22 Leaks 30 Potential
Critical 3, Very Important 1, Important 7
Somewhat Important 11, Needs Attention 30

You mentioned aggression need increasing alittle but are 2 of the critical leaks aggressive, i.e. Triple barrelling and bluffing River.
Also on Step 3 positional stats I have A- for every position and the Button and SB says my turn aggression is too high

BB says - Currently your Turn Aggression is a bit too high from the big blind. You should consider double barrelling slightly less and looking to check call and fold a little more often.