Matt Vaughan
King of Moody Rants
Bronze Level
Well, I did it again. Tried to write something about something or other. Go read, if you dare -> https://www.cardschat.com/forum/gen...ramblings-causality-poker-240389/#post2300196
This player was significantly better than the average 1/2 player. He was reading hands to some degree, but was usually on level 2 at best. Thus some bluffs that repped almost nothing. The other villain and I were repping weakness in this spot (we both WERE weak), and the main villain picked up on that. But he wasn't thinking about what he repped - just that everyone else looked weak.
Not gonna give HA since i'm WB. But seems you're thinking really well lately. So wtg! And nice bluffcatch with the 76 hand . Keep em comin, even though i'm not commenting atm I am enjoying it nonetheless.
(Part of the reason I don't comment is because by the time I get through a gargantuan post i'm all worn out and need a nap!)
This is the lightbulb moment, i know these spots. WP! In your exp, in these situations, do you think there is also a bet sizing tell that lines up with your read? Or is that largely incidental? As in - it's never/rarely a big bet/shove, you've read that villain is correctly reading table as weak, and his bet feels like a bluff / stab - (more so than a thin-value bet) like 45% to 55% of the pot or thereabouts? I guess the bet size is far less critical than the other analysis you'll have done in the hand, but it often seems to line up nicely.
5x! Not even a busted draw with a 5! Lol, i think he has watched too much TV then
Oh no, you've written another novel. I'll have to go read it then
Before we get to the river feedback and the villain tells, it's really the Turn sizing that should be around $125 to $150 (as you say you'd have done this in a different headspace, and probably fold out draws). As played, villain action on River is definitely suspect, so in that light, i think the call is correct. Scary but correct. If you're right, I expect to see AJ a lot with his action. Or busted FDs where the aggro bluffs at the K scare card. If he has KJ, good luck to him eh? You would have heard from J10 a lot sooner.
Doubt AJ is turning his hand into a bluff here with decent SDV.
Oh yeah good point. Have to be pretty bad/aggro to do that you're right, but if he senses weakness around that K. And yeah - also agree with you - KQ is also the worry along with KJ.
Yeah but again, if he senses weakness then why bluff? He has SDV vs weak hands. And he's not gonna get looked up by worse.
Preflop:
5 limpers to me, I'm in the SB and pop it to $15... 4 callers.
Flop: ($70) (5 players)
I mis-calculate the pot size as $60, and based on that make it $40 to go. The BB calls, as well as a BTN limper.
Not much clue how BB is playing, but he seems loose passive primarily. I would have heard from him on the flop if I was behind. He can have Jx, draws, combo draws. The BTN is pretty loose, and aggro both preflop and post. His range is probably similar to BB's in nature, but wider.
Turn: ($190) (3 players)
I bet $70, this time not quite on my A game and no explicitly calculating the size of the pot. My stack size is a little bit awkward, and I leave myself with $160 after betting $70. BB thinks a few moments and folds. The BTN tanks for quite a while, asks how much I have behind, tanks a bit more, and calls.
At this point, I think I'm so far ahead it's not even funny. He seemed weak, and clearly had to really talk himself into a call. I decide in advance that I'm going to x/c any non-club river, and possibly even club rivers, depending on reads.
River: ($330) (3 players)
I tank for a few moments, and check. Villain thinks for a few seconds, and with exaggerated strength, leans forward with a stack of 20 red chips in each hand, and puts them forcefully very far in front of him. Based on both my read earlier in the hand, and based on his nonverbal behavior now (particularly the choice to forcefully put out two full stacks of $100), I call.
I wonder how many long time pros still tilt. It has to be more than one would imagine. Poker is one of the only games where you can play absolutely flawlessly for an extended period of time and get destroyed by the results. It'd be amazing if even any slightly competitive person can truly overcome tilt in his or her lifetime.