Love the donk line, kind of want to bet more on the river though. Like, I really would go for closer to 3/4 pot size as opposed to the 1/3 pot size. I expect stubborn AQ/QJ to just call even on river. I mean, he could even have a hand as strong as AK with a single spade which would seem fine to call a flop donk/turn lead.
Interested though, Wouldn't it be much better to be squeezing the hand HU's vs the BTN rather than calling and having to play 5 way OOP with KQ given noone is ever folding pre when we call?
All three options crossed my mind preflop as reasonable options. I felt at the time that given his preflop stats it wouldn't be the best play - but in retrospect, given his sizing, I think he has mid pairs a lot of the time so postflop would have been pretty straightforward to get him off it.
My main concern though was if I 3b and get called by one of the early limpers, we're still going to go 4-way+ a lot in a massively bloated pot. The dynamic is very similar to a live game in that someone could easily limp/call 3b here. I guess I could size massive, but I just decided that I didn't mind playing for TP value in a 5-way pot where people will still make massive mistakes vs. me.
I get you on the river sizing, but imo the majority of his range at this point is weak Qx and even some weakish PP's. I expect the K might actually get me paid off by those hands, as the only value hands I really rep are KQ and flushes. But I think he's going to be pretty elastic here.
The one argument I think for making it 1/2 to 2/3 is that making it smaller than half sometimes makes it look like a "please call me" bet, but unfortunately I'm not really sure what level he is on. Just went with the assumptions he wasn't quite there.
making it smaller is better imo. Going to get calls from 33-JJ + rando Qx imo. I think making it too big could even get a hero to fold AQ. + were b/f here technically, since if we get raised by the obvious 2x, we can fold and save some bb's.
Looks good although i think we can extract couple more bb's on turn/river without compromise our line-bet size.
Like 21bb/36bb (T/R), flop looks perfect.
You're probably right, Logan. Bet sizing considerations are under-rated.
That reminds me a lot of something I heard watching a training vid. The idea was:
1. If I'm value-betting, and I pick a size, could I go a little bigger and still get calls from all the same stuff?
2. If I'm bluffing, could I go a little smaller and still get the same folds?
Granted, this becomes a little trickier as you move up and play against more sophisticated opponents, but these guys aren't thinking on level 3+.
This has been a long time coming - some live hands:
1.
Preflop:
Two limps from nitty players in MP and BTN, and I make it $15, expecting to take it down pre a decent amount or cbet flop HU and take it down. Instead the BB cold calls and the BTN calls too. 3way to flop.
Flop: ($41) (2 players)
I opt to check, since I don't think I get much value. I suspect I can get more value from Kx by checking flop and possibly turn. It checks around.
Turn: ($41) (3 players)
I check again. Not sure I like it, since I can probably get value from Qc, Jc type hands. BB bets $15, and the BTN calls. I call warily.
River: ($86) (3 players)
I check, the BB bets $20, and the BTN slowly folds. I suspect that with his sizing we are chopping a very high % of the time. He has $90 behind, and I think I can get him to fold a chop. I jam.
He sighs, says "well, I guess you have AA... I call." He turns over KK to scoop.
2.
Preflop:
4 limps, CO isos to $12, there are 2 calls, and I call in the BB. We end up going 5way to the flop.
Flop: ($56) (5 players)
SB checks to me and I lead for $35. EP limper (the BB from hand 1) calls, as does the SB.
Turn: ($161) (3 players)
I lead for $75, and EP sighs dramatically and hems and haws before confidently putting out a call. Other player folds, and I'm 90% sure that EP has a flush already.
River: ($311) (2 players)
I check, and EP bets $100. I quickly fold.
He complains that the river saved me a ton of money and shows A3ss for the flopped nuts.
3.
Preflop:
1 limper, and I iso to $10 in MP. Both blinds call, as does the EP limper.
Flop: ($36) (4 players)
Blinds check and the EP limper leads for $10. Seems like a bit of a blocking bet, or possibly weak value bet with a bad 9x or underpair, so I make it $35 and he calls.
Turn: ($106) (2 players)
EP leads for $30. I wince inwardly as I'm 95% sure he has a gutter that turned TP. But I call like a fish.
River: ($166) ( players)
He leads for $30 again with $80ish behind, and I'm not 100% certain he has an A. I say, "ugh - A3 or A4? It's got to be one of those right?" I call.
Played this hand a few weeks ago. I open for $10 in late position and one caller in EP.
FLop I hit top pair on
I cbet $15 and get C/R massively to $100 (the game is 2-100 spread, $100 is max bet)
I think about it before folding a good top pair. I don't see him c/r sets, wouldn't he lead out on such a wet board? I figure he had a hand like AJd that he figures would be easier to try to just bully me out of the hand because it would be hard to play if he missed. Small chance too he had A10.
I open to $12 and get 2 callers.
FLop I completely wiff
I check and its checked around (1 to act behind me).
Turn brings another jack this time he bets out for around $20. I call and on the river I hit he puts me all in for my last $55 and I fold figuring he wanted a call and had checked behind a hand like J5o on the flop that made trips on the turn. I prob. should have folded turn but had a gutshot and thought my 2 overs might have been good.
last hand before I went home
Limped around as usual and I make it $12
One caller who has position on me. Flop comes
I check to villian and he makes it like $25. I call and we go to turn. board pairs and the flush got there though I don't see him really ever having the flush. I check to him again and he bets like $55 and I eventually fold. He says he caught a piece of the board and asked if I had a club which I did. He didn't know I actually had a hand. The more I think about it, the more I wish I had shoved turn (he looked relieved when I folded). What hands would be double-barreling that would fold here though? A weak Kx maybe?
I think I need to work on c-betting more instead of giving up aggression OTF. I'm a little rusty and need to get back my mojo! What do you guys think?
To Scourrge, great valuable thread and best of luck! The is my first post, but not my last
KTo: I have never played spread limit games, so I don't know what kinds of dynamics might be involved that are different than what I'm used to. But this seems like a pretty easy fold. I just don't see why anyone would cap the bet with air here. Looks like sets, two pair, overpairs to me.
AQo: Maybe you posted the hand wrong, but you did not have a gutshot on the turn. Also, you need to post more information about the hands for this to really be useful. Things like position, stack sizes, and reads all help make a hand much easier to analyze. Also, what's the maximum buyin? It seems like you're buying in for and playing a very short stack. I wouldn't recommend that except in some very rare cases.
TT: I'm usually cbetting this flop because there's so much worse that will call you in typical live games. 9x, flush draws, and even sometimes lower PP's or Ax will call one street. His flop bet is pretty big so I wouldn't be excited about calling but I would still peel. On the turn his sizing again indicates strength. Just because he was happy you folded doesn't mean he didn't have you beat - plenty of people live are bad enough to bet Kx there and hope you fold. They are just scared. Scared of being sucked out on, scared of the current flush, scared of a 9, etc.
Thanks for your reply. Basically spread limit is exactly the same as 1-2 nlh which is all I have ever played before until I moved to AZ. Only difference is you cannot bet or raise by more than 100 at one time. Its essentially no different than your typically 1-2 game. Apparently NLHE in Arizona is not allowed for whatever reason.
Thanks for your analysis and advice. I should have posted hands sooner before i got fuzzy and will be sure to add more info for future posts. thanks alot man!
Agree on J9s for folding turn, although I'm not really sure what we're afraid of on this board from players behind. If we get cold-called or x/3b then it's like the snappiest fold ever.
Turn is an easy fold, river is just an embarrassingly bad crying call.
A4s, flop/turn looks good, river me not like , why we think villain will fold to a chop if is a nit? (nits usually not let go TP hands), not see him leting go Ax that often or having worst so going to end just paying more rake or losing.
Aside of that his size on river looks like a size to induce vs 2, so expecting he call the jam with Ax mostly or with better other times (AK or flush, not expecting his hand).
76s, looks good, we are getting huge odds on river and need like 20% equity which mean need to be good at least 1/5, but if we are sure he always have it then good fold.
J9s, i like the flop raise but i go bigger, if pot is $46 i make it $50-$55 to try increase our FE, our hand is not strong enough to continue for later streets so im fine to cut the hand right there when still ahead, after get called have to let go when Ace hit, agree with duggs turn is a fold.
A4s, flop/turn looks good, river me not like , why we think villain will fold to a chop if is a nit? (nits usually not let go TP hands), not see him leting go Ax that often or having worst so going to end just paying more rake or losing.
Aside of that his size on river looks like a size to induce vs 2, so expecting he call the jam with Ax mostly or with better other times (AK or flush, not expecting his hand).
It's a little hard to explain if you don't play live ever, but live nits are usually pretty weak tight. They like to fold lots of hands postflop to pressure, and most of them are kind of risk averse. Additionally, they have rudimentary hand reading, but often fear the worst (as demonstrated by his sigh-call with the 3rd nuts and verbalizing he expected AA).
Also, rake is already capped by the time we get to the flop. 10% capped at $4 (notice that the flop pot size is $41 instead of $45, because $4 is removed for rake). So it doesn't "cost" me anything extra to make the raise in terms of rake when I win.
It kind of feels like you're looking for mistakes that aren't there - or it might just be a live thing again. Because this sizing CAN be a "induce" sizing, but not usually attached to this line. Usually it's a thinnish value bet. And on this board where so many chops are possible I think it's like a "please call with a super weak hand" most of the time.
If he has a weak flush he doesn't want more action on a paired board (again, he's weak tight), and he only has a few combos of like Qx or Jx flushes because of his preflop call.
76s, looks good, we are getting huge odds on river and need like 20% equity which mean need to be good at least 1/5, but if we are sure he always have it then good fold.
Yeah I think in retrospect flop size could be bigger. And tbh, I'm actually starting to wonder if against this guy, we can maybe get away with checking the turn and evaluating or maybe sizing super small to name our price. Like, his flop call is super suspect. He usually has flopped nut flushes or like reasonable overpairs with a spade. He's not usually going to bet turn with (now) 2nd pair even with a spade, so can we just bet like $40 or maybe even check and hope he bets tiny?
River is like the easiest fold ever vs. this player. We are good exactly 0% of the time
J9s, i like the flop raise but i go bigger, if pot is $46 i make it $50-$55 to try increase our FE, our hand is not strong enough to continue for later streets so im fine to cut the hand right there when still ahead, after get called have to let go when Ace hit, agree with duggs turn is a fold.
Um, what?? Why the hell would I want fold equity on the flop? I'm way ahead of a continuing range to a more reasonable size. I think the bolded part is a pretty big cognitive error when it comes to poker, but especially in live when people are sooooo call-happy. Basically no one bet/folds to reasonable sizes.
I agreed in the moment and thought a turn call was bad (made it anyway ), but I'm actually wondering if we can't peel one to try to trip or two pair up. Like yes there is a TINY bit of reverse implied odds against A9 or AJ or something, but if he has an A 95% of the time (I think he does), then we're almost always getting paid big on a J, and probably getting a medium-sized bet in on a 9.
In other news, here are the potential base designs for chip labels I'm looking at:
They are in my current ranked order I think. In 2nd one, kind of have to imagine the image cuts off at the circle. Thoughts? Opinions on a brand new approach?
I'd probably go 1 or 3.......sized down 1 a little to what prob would be a more accurate sizing and it still looks pretty good (although guess it depends on the printing side of it).
Also ugh wish i could play some live poker, I be jealous and hope you find a good group to get your home games going sir.
Yeah, I mean I have sizing control, just wanted people to be able to appreciate the actual art of it, cause it's pretty sick.
Have been trying to decide whether to add some color splash or not (purple would look good with any other chip color I have), and how to implement it. Still doing a lot of blind experimentation, but hoping to have this done tomorrow heh.
