JOEBOB'S return from the ashes

[Matt Vaughan]

AK line looks good, I size bigger every postflop street though.

AJ I absolutely hate your lead. We have a gutshot and an over on a board that absolutely smashes limping ranges. I'm check-calling turn since I don't see us getting a ton of value. Check-evaluate river seems fine as played.

QTo is a very clear fold pre in what seems to be a pretty juicy game. I'm calling flop but planning to be pretty wary of every turn card.

 

[stately7]

Hey man…

AK - i'd size flop around $65 and 2/3 pot on turn and check back river. Pretty dry board. Would passive fish play a middle pair draw? More likely is JJ/QQ.

AJ - I like pre flop just completing. Post flop, i want to check / play a small pot unless we can bink a 10. Check/call turn. River is good.

QT - it's a fold pre flop. I can understand the idea to squeeze here, but would be better if facing limpers or a smaller raise. Without good reads, HJ and CO have shown pretty serious strength here.*

 

[JOEBOB69]

QTo is a very clear fold pre in what seems to be a pretty juicy game. I'm calling flop but planning to be pretty wary of every turn card.

Hey man…


QT - it's a fold pre flop. I can understand the idea to squeeze here, but would be better if facing limpers or a smaller raise. Without good reads, HJ and CO have shown pretty serious strength here.*

Are we being a little results oriented here? Or are we saying this is a bad hand to squeeze with? $30 preflop was the HJ's normal opening raise size. Obviously i can't tell you what his vpip/pfr was, but he was opening a lot of pots. I just think BB woke up with top of his range TT+(-JJ if you read the spoiler), AK. If BB doesn't wake up with those hands i expect to take down the pot a vast majority of the time.

I guess what i'm asking is what's a better spot/hand to squeeze with?

 

[Matt Vaughan]

I'm saying I doubt a squeeze is going to be successful that often, and you can't count on people noticing you haven't been 3betting. They see there's a shit ton in the pot and they don't have to call their whole stack to see a flop.

In terms of hands that would be better to bluff squeeze with, it depends on how often you expect to be called. Like I suggested, I expect to go HU once in a while at minimum, so I'd rather squeeze a merge range in general. But I prefer a hand with better blockers like A5s or K7s (blockers to KK+ and AK), or something more playable postflop. QT is going to be dominated by hands that call too often. So I'd rather have low cards if I'm trying to hit the flop when called. 87s, T8s, that kind of stuff.

In terms of spot, there's probably not a much better one, but again I'm going for a merged squeeze range in this particular game (and most really low stakes/weak games).

 

[JOEBOB69]

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
equity Win Tie
MP2 33.58% 33.17% 0.41% { 87s }
MP3 66.42% 66.01% 0.41% { TT-77, AQs, KJs+, AQo, KQo }

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Equity Win Tie
MP2 40.06% 39.68% 0.38% { T9s }
MP3 59.94% 59.55% 0.38% { TT-77, AQs, KJs+, AQo, KQo }

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Equity Win Tie
MP2 37.47% 37.07% 0.39% { T8s }
MP3 62.53% 62.14% 0.39% { TT-77, AQs, KJs+, AQo, KQo }

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Equity Win Tie
MP2 35.04% 34.39% 0.65% { QTo }
MP3 64.96% 64.31% 0.65% { TT-77, AQs, KJs+, AQo, KQo }

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Equity Win Tie
MP2 42.40% 41.62% 0.78% { A5s }
MP3 57.60% 56.82% 0.78% { TT-77, AQs, KJs+, AQo, KQo }

Your suggestion of 78s, T8s suited looked correct. I was leaning more towards T9s in my orginal thought, for wanting to run the numbers. If the range i gave is close to accurate for HJ's flat if BB doesn't call. To be honest i think i gave to wide of a range. I believe he is folding KQo, and KJs.
Edit: when i take away KQo, and KJs. A5s goes down to ~35% and QTo goes up to 37% 9Ts stays roughly the same.

 

[Matt Vaughan]

If he's really folding those hands then we should be 3betting A5s hands more. We're not looking to have tons of equity when called if he's folding hands as good as KQ here. We just want to block AA and AK pretty much. If your main goal is getting folds then we really don't care as much about our equity as much as blockers, but playability is still nice so A5s is waaay better than say, K8s. Blocking aces and being able to sometimes make top pair vs. like TT-QQ is good too.

Like I said before though, a big problem with playing something like QTo is going to be it just doesn't make big hands. When called we know we're usually behind. So making 2nd pair is going to be dangerous. Making top pair isn't usually going to leave us super comfortable and offsuit gappers just don't connect and make big hands a lot.

 

[JOEBOB69]

Yeah you're right, old school blockers are the way to go (along with 9Ts.
We're not looking for post flop EQ in this spot, though it's nice to have if we need it. FWIW i still don't think it was a terrible play with QTo. Maybe someday i'll look back and say WTF i had no clue what i was talking about.

 

[Matt Vaughan]

Lol naw don't think you'll think that. I think you're like me, and good enough to sometimes make good explanations for -EV plays, if that makes sense. Mind, I don't think your hemorrhaging money there, but I don't think it's super close either. I think another important thing to remember here is just how huge it's all playing. In terms of price you need for your bluff to work and whatnot.

 

[JOEBOB69]

Thoughts on this basic 4bet range for HUNL.

 

[JOEBOB69]

LOST HAND
1-3 aka 300nl live.
I felt like a newbie during the whole hand.
Pre, flop, turn and river.
Hand happened at ~3:00 pm ( so really no one is drunk)
Hero is in the BB with 5d8d
This is Hero's 2nd orbit. I'm the 2nd shortest stack with ~$350. Shortest is the CO with $28.
The game is 10 handed. Hero is in the BB, UTG stradles to $6.
MP1 folds, Villain calls $6, MP 3 calls $6, MP 4 folds, HJ folds, CO calls $6, BTN calls $6, SB calls $6, Hero calls $3 more, UTG checks.
(Pot $42) Flop
Qd7d5s
Checks around to the CO who goes AI for $22, Hero tank calls $22, Villain calls $22, folds
(Pot $108) Turn
Ad
Hero bets $40, Villain (gives a big speech about having to draw out then) calls $40.
(Pot $188) River
Tc
Hero bets $65, Villain (tries to raise to $100, dealer says it has to be at least to $130) villain raises to $130

I shock my head and said i ****ing hate giving money away and sigh called.
Thoughts on every street please?

 

[JOEBOB69]

I know you read the HH Scourrge. Thoughts?

 

[Matt Vaughan]

Pre seems fine, flop seems standard, turn I bet bigger, river as played seems standard without reads, though the only worse he plays this way is like sets, maybe some weird two pairs, and like KJdx.

 

[Matt Vaughan]

(I was taking an online "skills assessment" for a job application - ie I got sidetracked lol.)

 

[stately7]

Fold pre. Lol, just kidding pre is fine. I think we can fold flop though. We have bottom pair and a small flush draw - we are 10 handed, 7-way to the flop - we just don't know where we're at right?

 

[Matt Vaughan]

We have 14 outs against most of BTN's jamming range, and we're ahead of better FD's, so I don't really think folding the flop makes any sense.

 

[punctual]

I was 90% sure it was wayside. Then when i typed it,it didn't look right so i changed it. Yeah damn o country boy.

In one of those session was the only time i felt bad about taking someones $ at a poker table. Old guy ~80 years old sat down. I'm about 99% sure he was in mid to late stages of Alzheimer's. My mawmaw died because of this, and he had the same look behind his eyes (like nothing is there).
Any way i was in a pot with him i had KJo board on the turn was T3QA i just kept on Vbetting got him all in on the river. He showed J2 and called my river bet with it.
Thinking about maybe donating his $100 he lost to some kind of Alzheimer's charity research. It's a shame because i'm sure a member of his family had to drive him there to play. Just makes me sick..

I feel bad sometimes taking people's money also. But we have to remember, we are all there for the same reason....we all risk money with the hopes of making money.

I'm sure he would have gladly taken your money and not feel bad for you....

Gotta learn to separate business from emotions. It's so hard sometimes...

 

[stately7]

We have 14 outs against most of BTN's jamming range, and we're ahead of better FD's, so I don't really think folding the flop makes any sense.

Ya true, that's around 60% equity in a vacuum, but I guess I'm just wary of better FDs. Also, by this logic, how can we count all 14/15 outs when diamond outs don't necessarily help?

 

[xdeucesx]

call it off and scoop the pot

come on JB, this is live 1/3 get it together

 

[xdeucesx]

also, plz come back to rivers and donate to me thx

 

[Jillychemung]

Fold preflop.

 

[Mr Sandbag]

Fold preflop.

+1

I know it seems dumb to fold with all the money that is in the pot already, but:
- You have a garbage hand that will VERY rarely flop strongly, which means...
- If you do connect, you'll be in some very tough spots post because you are OOP in a multiway pot
- If the straddler raises you can't call

 

[JOEBOB69]

Fold preflop.

+1

I know it seems dumb to fold with all the money that is in the pot already, but:
- You have a garbage hand that will VERY rarely flop strongly, which means...
- If you do connect, you'll be in some very tough spots post because you are OOP in a multiway pot
- If the straddler raises you can't call

The math just not seem correct to fold pre. I could be wrong, but i think pre is almost the easiest. Even given that UTG as the option to raise. I do get the point, but the math just seems awfully wrong to fold pre.

 

[JOEBOB69]

also, plz come back to rivers and donate to me thx

Fish...
Are you winning our man Scourge any $$$ yet?

 

[WVHillbilly]

I also think it's a fold unless you know the straddler rarely raises their straddles.

 

[redwards92]

I also think it's a fold unless you know the straddler rarely raises their straddles.

straddler checked pre

not folding pre ever vs a bunch of fish

definitely think its a call on river as well. probably bet bigger on the turn he could have like Kd with a pair or something that made two pair or like KdJx I have no idea why he would raise either but some people are just that bad especially in live games lol. when you snap em off they will be like oh damn i knew you had that(than why did you raise haha)

edit

oh i read your post wrong WV thought you were saying that UTG raised lol