When you have flopped a nutted hand and intend to shove on the river, are there any tips for flop and turn bet sizes to avoid having to overbet river? I really struggle to calculate it.
This is one where working on your math skills will help, kumon has great programs for this
But... Check the Stack to Pot ratio on the flop and then plan accordingly
Example
Pot = $20
Stacks = $190
Stack to pot Ratio = 190:20 = 9.5:1
To get all in by betting pot the following ratios are helpful to know
1 SPR = 1 pot size bet to get all in
4 SPR = 2 pot sized bets to get all in
13 SPR = 3 pot sized bets to get all in
Let's test it... with spr 13
on flop the pot is 1x (where x = pot size bet)
we bet pot, opponent calls, now the pot has grown to 3x
on the turn we bet pot again (which is now 3x), opponent calls, pot has grown to 9x
on river we bet pot again which is 9x, opponent calls
how many x's (pot sized bets) did we get in?
9 on river + 3 on turn + 1 on flop = 13
So with an SPR of 13 you need to bet pot on all 3 streets to get all in on river, and to have a pot sized bet left which is what you're asking about.
If SPR is less than 13 you can use smaller bet sizes and end up with a pot sized bet on the river, a little algebra practice will help you get it down
Some homework you can try
If you bet 3/4 pot on flop and turn, what would SPR need to be for you to have a pot sized bet left on the river?
What about if you bet 1/2 pot on flop and turn?
what about 1/4 pot on flop and turn?
And then you can mix it up, 1/4 on flop, 1/2 on turn
3/4 on flop, 1/2 on turn
etc.
Play around with it, do some practice and it will become second nature.
A great way to do this is to take actual
chips and cut them out so you can visually see what the process looks like, this makes it much easier to remember.
And if you are thinking about SPR, especially on turn, you should be able to pretty effectively set yourself up for an ideal bet size on the river... in my upcoming book I mention that
If you want a call on the river, try to set up for an SPR of 0.75-0.5 on the river
If you want a fold on the river, try to set up for an SPR of 1.5-2 on the river
And I promise as you start thinking about it this way, and if you do some practice, it will become second nature every time you reach the turn to know what size to bet for your desired outcome.