CRStals
Moderator
Moderator
I need to get this clarified to know whether this line is profitable or not.
I usually take this line on a bit dangerous board cause I will usually be call a decent sizing if I checked & the V bets on the river.
But I do fold V's bluff by this so not getting value there. But then again if the V raised, I know I'm beat so easy fold. But if the V bluffs a very big size, he might make me fold better hands cause I wouldn't be calling most of the time.
So what is the profitable option???
partypoker - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
BTN: 137.8 BB (VPIP: 18.95, PFR: 14.74, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 99)
Hero (SB): 312.6 BB
BB: 105.8 BB (VPIP: 17.77, PFR: 13.32, 3Bet Preflop: 3.99, Hands: 752)
UTG: 121.6 BB (VPIP: 29.76, PFR: 25.30, 3Bet Preflop: 15.15, Hands: 88)
MP: 26.8 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 4.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
CO: 64.4 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Th Ah
fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB
Flop : (6 BB, 2 players) 2s As 4c
Hero bets 4 BB, BB calls 4 BB
Turn : (14 BB, 2 players) 7s
Hero checks, BB bets 10 BB, Hero calls 10 BB
River : (34 BB, 2 players) 9h
Hero bets 22 BB, fold
Hero wins 54.4 BB
Ask yourself this:
Let's say your plan was to check-call the river vs betting. At what point do you fold to V's bet?
Personally, not running any numbers but going off of just feel, your river bet feels like it's -EV. You're not getting called by AK, AQ (I think those hands would have taken a different line at some point), and the flush or straight possibilities would raise you on that river. You're not getting worse hands to call - only better.
Check-calling might - might - induce a bet with nothing, 2nd pair, or a weaker ace. I could be way off base but I just feel like your 22BB are either going to the other stack, or you're not getting the information from V by giving them the free river or them betting.