Mystery Bounty Poker Quiz: Do You Know the Math?

[RhinoRyan89]

1. Bounty value $166
2. Pot odds 55.6%
3. pot odds including bounty 40.5%
4. Yes i would Call
5. I belive in this situation JJ is a profitable play and a good bounty spot

 

[riff_raff312]

1.bounty is around 160/165
2.i'm calling being ITM all ready
3.i'd be betting if he had trips he would have shoved on the turn
4.take the bounty and play on.

 

[VictorOd]

Oh, finally something fresh and complicated! Ok, let's try to break down this case.
1. Average bounty is (100*200/2) /60 = $166.67.
2. 20k pot means that we both invested 10k each already and opponents remaining stack is 35000 and we need to add our 35000 to call with JJ.
Lets calculate bounty value. 10000 chips = $100 so $166.67 converted into chips is 16667 chips.
Total adjusted pot taking their bounty into account will be 20000 + 35000 + 35000 + 16667 = 106667.
Net gain = 106667 - 35000 = 71667.
equity that we need to call p = Call / (Call + Net Profit) = 35000 / (35000 + 71667) = 0.3281 (roughly 33%)
3. Yes, calling is correct mathematically.
4. Maybe to wait would be better but I want to pull the bounty now.

 

[Sebbour]

• What is the average bounty worth right now? - 50$*200 players= 10000$/60 players= 166,66$
• What odds do you have to call this, taking their bounty into account? - 166,66/50*100=333,32% of 10000 chips is 33332 chips. Bounty is worth 33332 chips to my stack (my pot odds go up by that amount of chips)
• Do you call? I'll call
• If you call - and win - do you pull the bounty now, or wait? - pull the bounty right away because I have the chance to get top bounty since it is still available

 

[x patrice x]

I'll give it a try...

• What is the average bounty worth right now?

$100 Buy-in x 200 players = $20.000 total pool
$20.000 / 2 (50/50 split-> prize pool & bounty pool) = $10.000 total-bounty-pool
$10.000 / 60 (Total bounty “envelopes” to be won -> players in Day 2 play for bounties) = $166,67 average bounty size
____

• What odds do you have to call this, taking their bounty into account?

200 x 10.000 / 60 = 33.333 (average stack with 60 players left) or even $166,67 / $50 = 3,33 x 10.000 = 33.333
20.000 + 35.000 + 35.000 + 33.333 = 123.333 / 35.000 = 3,52 to 1 = 28,4%


That was the sticking point for me in learning series (Part 3: Mystery Bounty Tournaments) and it really confused me. Could it be that there is a small formal error here?

In our previous example, $10 went to the bounty pool and $10 went into the prize pool, putting the Average Bounty Value at $66.67. Working this out, $66.67 / $10 gives us 6.667 and that x 10,000 chips gives 66,670 chips added to your pot odds.

Here’s why, with our example expanded out:

• $22 Mystery Bounty tournament, 50/50 split between prize pool and bounty pool
• 100 players entered, 15 make the money
• 10,000 starting chip stacks
• The bounties are only awarded after the money is hit
• The tournament has 15 players left thought
• The bounties amounts are as follows: $250, $150, $100, $80, $70 x 2, $50 x 2, $40 x 2, $20 x 5 (total $1000 bounty prize pool)
• No bounties have been claimed yet

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/lea...tournament-formats-part-3-546146/post-7078668
____

• Do you call?

Yes, I call.
____

• If you call - and win - do you pull the bounty now, or wait?

As long as all bounties are in play and I have a chance at the maximum bounty, I will pull the bounty!

 

[Tero]

Once the deadline of this quiz passes I assume that most of us would like to hear the correct answer

And now we are passed the deadline. Can we have the results, please?

 

[Marcwantstowin]

And now we are passed the deadline. Can we have the results, please?

Hi @Tero and all - the correct solution will be added on Monday when our Mystery Bounty expert is here. I will remind him

 

[Dmitriy_rus7]

1Today the reward will be 160-170 dollars
2 I would make a call for the reward
3 I would take it now

 

[Toruk Makto]

I have a very good reward close to 160 dollars, so my action is very plausible! I pay without fear within what the scenario offers me, which is a good pot and the reward.