Mystery Bounty Poker Quiz: Do You Know the Math?

[CRStals]

In our Popular Poker Tournament Formats series, Part 3: Mystery Bounty Tournaments we went over the maths figuring out average bounty worth, odds to call based on bounty value, etc. Check out the article, and then put the math to practice with the following scenario! Full, non-copied answers will be worth 10 VIP chips to you (after review).

Day 2 of a Mystery Bounty Tournament Stats

• $100 buy in, split 50/50 prize pool and bounty pool
• 200 players entered
• 30 players will cash
• All players in Day 2 play for bounties: none have been claimed yet
• Starting stack was 10k
• 60 players start Day 2

The Situation

• You have a stack of 50k, blinds are 1k/2k
• You get into a hand with a player in the small blind with a stack of 45k
• You are in the big blind and find pocket jacks.
• 20k pot on the river with a board of 10 - 9 - 9 - 4 - 2 (rainbow, no flush possible).
• Small blind shoves, putting their bounty up for grabs.

Using the info provided in our Mystery Bounty learning thread, answer these questions:

• What is the average bounty worth right now?
• What odds do you have to call this, taking their bounty into account?
• Do you call?
• If you call - and win - do you pull the bounty now, or wait?

 

[Goggelheimer]

So the question is somewhat disturbing and not very precise missing info is effective stack size when pushed from SB, I do not really know how many chips to call.

1. The average bounty is $166.67 ( $10000/60 players)

2. pot odds are increased by 33333 Chips due to the bounty (Bounty $166,67/ $50 = 333.3%, 10000 Chips x 333.3 = 33333 chips)
Or in other words the pot contains 33333 Chips more as dead money due to the average bounty.

3. With an over pair to the board, I would call, due to the very rare info about the betting in the previous streets.
Even if I run into 9x, Tx, 44, or 22 hands.
The move looks strong but without information on previous betting this is GTO (Guess The Outcome)

4. I would pull the bounty directly because the chance to win the big one is there.

I hope the math is correct, if not give me hint via pm.

 

[Suns of Beaches]

- The Average bounty is around 160 dollars

- I have pretty good odds to call, especially for a bounty

- i call for sure there with an overpair to the board and in a blind vs blind situation

- I would pull the bounty now and not wait. There is more than enough wait in poker already and I'm pretty impatient in general 😀

 

[Tero]

I will try to answer this even though the article itself wasn't completely clear, and because of it I'm not sure of this answer.

What is the average bounty worth right now?

Right now it is (200 players x $50)/60 players = $166,7 (if house's cut is not taken into account)

What odds do you have to call this, taking their bounty into account?

There is 20k on the table by river so both of us have put in 10k. I have 40k left and my opponent has 35k left.

Opponent shoves making the pot into 55k and we need to calculate another 5k into the pot from half of his starting chips (bounty value).

So we need to call 35k to win 60k. We need 37% equity to call.

Do you call?

No-one is in the money yet so all we have to gain is our opponent's bounty.
It all boils down to what we know of our opponent. Is he tight, stupid, or something else? He might just be trying to squeeze us with Ax?
Jacks are good enough to call (even though there is a pair on the board).

If you call - and win - do you pull the bounty now, or wait?
I'll probably wait a bit and take my chances. Winning big from 1/60 is just not my luck.

 

[ZenonBR]

Come on, it looks like we have incomplete information here, did the small blind villain just fill the pot? Or did he come in from Raise? If he entered with a Raise, how many x did this increase amount to? Another issue is generally that the small range is more biased towards marginal hands, as it is in position over the BB it can pressure the big with a Q9 for example, but to resolve this solution, the most important thing here is to first know how this action arrived up to you, did the villain raise or just fill the pot? If he got a raise, what was the value of that raise? 2x, 3x, 5x the amount of the big blind? Post flop, does he raise aggressively? Some villains when they trip tend to trap (my case) so if he checked it could be the case, but also not, if his only action on the river was ALL IN without having raised at any point, the call is right, if he has the 9 which is unlikely, just congratulations to him, and life goes on, now with JJ top of the range on the flop you fold, you are playing wrong in the long term, in the short term he may even have the set, but in the majority Sometimes your JJ on this board will come out victorious, so yes, calling is the correct action to do on this board, which will be favorable most of the time, just don't ask me to do calculations I'm horrible at it.

 

[Tammy]

Come on, it looks like we have incomplete information here, did the small blind villain just fill the pot? Or did he come in from Raise? If he entered with a Raise, how many x did this increase amount to? Another issue is generally that the small range is more biased towards marginal hands, as it is in position over the BB it can pressure the big with a Q9 for example, but to resolve this solution, the most important thing here is to first know how this action arrived up to you, did the villain raise or just fill the pot? If he got a raise, what was the value of that raise? 2x, 3x, 5x the amount of the big blind? Post flop, does he raise aggressively? Some villains when they trip tend to trap (my case) so if he checked it could be the case, but also not, if his only action on the river was ALL IN without having raised at any point, the call is right, if he has the 9 which is unlikely, just congratulations to him, and life goes on, now with JJ top of the range on the flop you fold, you are playing wrong in the long term, in the short term he may even have the set, but in the majority Sometimes your JJ on this board will come out victorious, so yes, calling is the correct action to do on this board, which will be favorable most of the time, just don't ask me to do calculations I'm horrible at it.

The idea is that you should read the article linked in the first post to determine your answer. It's not so much about the play of the cards, but rather determining your play based on the values of the bounties and other factors and information on whether this call is profitable to you in the long run or not.

 

[PoorGypsy]

Thanks to your question I figure out how to count bounties)))

1. so the price pool should be like 20 000 but if it's divide then it's 10 000 : 60 = 166$
2. so, after he shoves is 55 000 + 5k bounty in the pot and I need to put 35k more so it's a bit less then a half in pot odds. but if we have more then 30 percent equity.
3. Actually hard to say about call. JJ can be good depending on info we have. but if we consider that this person risking all his stack and he knows we cover him it's prety big chances that if he smart he won't do it with bad hand.
4. II will put the bounty out) I guess.

 

[najisami]

1) The average bounty is $166.6

2) The pot becomes 55K+ 33.334 bounty (which is the average bounty value divided by the initial personal bounty, then multiplied by the initial starting stack: 166.67/50=3.3334x10.000=33.334).
So we need to call (pay) 35K into an 88.334K pot (55K+33.334K).
That means we have 2. 52 to 1 odds to call.

3) Would've liked to know if it was a raised pot or not, but with my JJ, those odds and the bounty in play, yes I call.

4) If I win the hand, I think I'd wait a little before I pull that bounty.

I hope I didn't mess this up .

 

[besttest11]

1. Average bounty value: $166.67
2. Chip pot odds: 55.6% equity needed
3. Adjusted pot odds (with bounty): 40.5% equity needed
4. Call? Yes, because JJ likely has around 50% equity
5. If you win, claim bounty now? Yes, to maximize EV

 

[Urameshi]

not smart enough to answer the first two questions.

I would call and claim the bounty now

 

[Tero]

Once the deadline of this quiz passes I assume that most of us would like to hear the correct answer

One thing's for sure. This time we had to work for the chips

 

[mattiebumpo]

• What is the average bounty worth right now? 200x50= 10,000 10,000/60= $166.67
• What odds do you have to call this, taking their bounty into account? Pot is 20k+35k+35k=90k+5k (bounty value = .50x10k starting stack)=95k costs 35k to win a 95k pot = 37% equity needed to call
• Do you call? Yes. I do not know the actions of the hand, but I think I have enough equity to risk it in order to pull a bounty.
• If you call - and win - do you pull the bounty now, or wait? I pull the bounty now since all bounties are currently in play.

Here is my best attempt to answer the question. Thank you for the article. I am very interested in playing a live Mystery Bounty tournament.

 

[TatyanaT]

It's very interesting, but I don't understand whether I'm planning to play Mystery will bring me victory, and jacks aren't such a strong hand, I would throw it off

 

[Chica_bonita]

Oh my God: we have to read and count.🙈

The first part of the question is quite simple. The contribution is $ 100, half goes to the bounty, therefore it is $ 50. 200 people joined the game, and therefore we multiply 50 by 200 and get that the total bounty amount is 10,000 dollars. Only 30 people will receive prizes, but we are talking about the prize pool, not the bounty, so we are not interested in this information yet. The bounty is paid on day 2, and we have 60 people go on day 2, so we divide the total bounty amount ($10,000) by 60 to find out the average reward, which is about $166.67.
The first part is sorted out.😃

It's more complicated than that, because I have no idea what range my opponent is playing with, I know that one of us was raising, maybe it was me.😆
Technically, the opponent can have anything: 9x,TT,44,22 QQ,KK,AA. 23 cards from a 45 card deck. It's quite difficult to calculate equity, although maybe I'm being dumb. but I will be able to increase my stack by 47% if I win, as well as receive a reward (I still think the chances are good. with JJ), so I will call.🙈

Well, if I win, of course I will take the reward right away, since none of the bounties have been claimed yet and there is a chance to hit a big jackpot, besides the average value of the next reward will increase.😃

 

[thetick33]

major issues here with how i think play....1st if im bb they sb im shoving off jump....everyone gave the stats....i play poker and think differently is 60 bounties...if dont shove on jump 50 percent chance aint worth it now....i fold if they shove...cause i cant get bounties with 5k chips....even in mystery bounty or any bounty tournament....I want to go deeper im used to bounties rising...mystery bounties might all be worth the same amount?my history with mystery bounties has they have been random....so i get people said is worth this but id need verification...my goal no matter structure is finishing first...now is some tourneys but NOT often anymore big bounty is out there and when that is grabbed no more bounties etc...id play that differently and keep pulling etc..till hit cause prize is more then first play but its rare and dont see it too much anymore...playing live ive mostly seen the final table bouties i like that....or say 18 bounties etc...with rising scale etc....im not made to be a bounty chaser....flipping aint my thing

 

[19aleks57]

Bounty cost - 160 USD
Capital bank chips - 51%
Bank odds with correction - 38%
Call - 40%
I would take the winnings right away, it is better to have something small than nothing.

 

[Bhargav]

my view is little bit logical.

1. bounty aspect:
calculating average bounty per person and betting accordingly will not work. incase you knockout the villain risking 90% of your stack. if you are the first person to open bounty, you most probably get the smallest bounty(which is way less than the avg. bounty per person). but if you open later chances of getting bigger bounty is more.

2. game aspect:
risking small part of your stack for mystery bounty is fine. why would you risk all your stack for one chest, instead try to go ITM, reward is better than mystery bounty

 

[Marcwantstowin]

Hi @Bhargav

I think you may have confused mystery bounty and regular bounty games, The Mystery bounties can only be won when everyone is ITM and then they are random, so on 1st bounty payout, you may get top bounty. However, there is less chance of this, as there is normally only one top bounty and there are more of the bottom bounty payouts.

As Chris has explained in the OP of this thread, there is a specific way of working out the correct math, but at the end of the day, it is still a decision which may be made on players' choice.

Please work out the math and then it will make more sense to you.

Good luck.

Marc

 

[Tero]

The Mystery bounties can only be won when everyone is ITM...

Not to confuse everyone even more, but in this particular example it doesn't seem to be so

• 30 players will cash
• All players in Day 2 play for bounties: none have been claimed yet
• 60 players start Day 2

 

[Bhargav]

Sorry @Marcwantstowin ... I thought mystery bounty is before ITM

 

[Marcwantstowin]

Sorry @Marcwantstowin ... I thought mystery bounty is before ITM

No problem,

 

[Marcwantstowin]

Not to confuse everyone even more, but in this particular example it doesn't seem to be so

Thank you for pointing that out, however, I have not found any mystery bounty games that allow payments before players are ITM.

Edit. I apologise. I have found a Mystery Bounty game in which the bounties start getting paid when Late reg closes on pokerstars. (see below).

Therefore I have awarded @Bhargav his VIP chips.

 

[Nokaut men 1997]

Until now I thought I was good at math. Really difficult maths for which I have no, let alone an exact answer.

 

[ammje]

1 The Average bounty is around 160 dollars

2 I have a good chance of calling because of his bounty.

3 yes

4 wait

 

[steve01991]

average bounty is around 166.
i personally would call with an overpair to the board, but odds are not great.
i would pull the bounty now, as money in pocket is the only way not to go broke.