Dara O'Kearney (Satellite Specialist) - Ask Me Anything about satellites/knockouts

[belladonna05]

I'm your former roommate? Who knew? Thanks for the book!

 

[Dara OKearney]

so what do you think
should we be the one GTO'ing or the one exploiting it
and what frequency do we need to exploit it over it exploiting us to be EV+

By definition GTO cannot be exploited and any non GTO style will be exploited by it, but I guess the real question is should we be playing GTO (or trying to: it's impossible to play it perfectly in any but the simplest headsup spots) or an exploitative style based on identifying mistakes opponents are making and trying to exploit them. I think the answer is it depends how confident we are about identifying opponent mistakes.

A simple example. If we are facing a pot-sized bet on the river and we have a pure bluff catcher (we beat all opponent's bluffs and none of their value), then the GTO solution is for our opponent to be bluffing 1/3rd of the time to make our bluff catchers indifferent. Since our opponent is bluffing 1/3rd of the time we should call 1/3rd of the time and fold 2/3rds of the time. But if we think our opponent is bluffing less than 1/3rd of the time we should fold all the time, and if we think they are bluffing more than 1/3rd of the time we should call all the time to exploit this imbalance.

However, by definition, when we try to exploit opponents by deviating from the GTO solution we open ourselves up to exploitation ourselves. Say, for example, we think an opponent is bluffing more than 1/3rd of the time so we start calling all our bluff catchers, but actually our read is wrong and they're bluffing less than a third of the time, then they're exploiting us (and can exploit us even more by reducing their bluff frequency further).

Thanks for your question!

 

[badbanking79]

Would you trade your poker career for the marathon career if you could

 

[Poker Orifice]

CRStals is a luckbox & wins everything he enters (hopefully the big tourney he's going to as well)
Looks like #4 Tracid might've taken a bad beat

 

[VelcroMidget]

Hi Dara,

Do you think your work with satellite strategy is done now, or do you think there is more to be discovered? Do you think they are 'solved'?

What do you think about these tournaments which have a regularprizepool, but also offer 20 seats to a bigger buy in? Example is this $11 PKO on Stars which is also has 16x Sunday Milly seats aswell.

Cheers

 

[Joe]

Winner draw

What do you have against squirrels Barry?!

Or should I call you Bird of Pa-Rrey..?

You shall be hearing from my solicitors (they are owls).

CRStals is a luckbox & wins everything he enters (hopefully the big tourney he's going to as well)
Looks like #4 Tracid might've taken a bad beat

You’re not wrong P.O. - the last number in the draw was clearly shown on screen twice as being 4 and @BarryCarter accidental inputs ‘5’ a second time instead of 4 before not realising the error when working out which account was connected to each number and discovering 5 a second time.

Human error in this instance thankfully didn’t lead to any ugly consequences, haha.. 😄

Good job I’ve had all the practice at taking bad beats without tilting/blowing up, eh? 😜🤪😆

 

[Poker Orifice]

What do you have against squirrels Barry?!

Or should I call you Bird of Pa-Rrey..?

You shall be hearing from my solicitors (they are owls).

You’re not wrong P.O. - the last number in the draw was clearly shown on screen twice as being 4 and @BarryCarter accidental inputs ‘5’ a second time instead of 4 before not realising the error when working out which account was connected to each number and discovering 5 a second time.

Human error in this instance thankfully didn’t lead to any ugly consequences, haha.. 😄

Good job I’ve had all the practice at taking bad beats without tilting/blowing up, eh? 😜🤪😆

You could even say it's "RIGGED", lol.... and I won't complain

 

[Joe]

You could even say it's "RIGGED", lol.... and I won't complain

But they use an RNG, how could it possibly be rigged!? 😜

Barry must’ve previously worked for a certain poker platform and decided to personally carry on my ‘death switch’ assigned by his previous employers…

All makes perfect sense!

Another theory is that Dara knows that if I were to obtain the knowledge imbued within those pages it would tip me over the poker super saiyan threshold which would lead to worldwide devastation of the major tournament circuit and ruin the sport for everyone. Thus explaining the internal memo I uncovered to Barry sent from Dara only a few minutes before the draw stating simply the (not overly) cryptic message:

“Scarlet sciuridae mustn’t succeed”

Currently composing a tweet to alert the F.B.I.

😙-🎶🎵

 

[Craig T]

Hi Cardschat,

I am Dara O’Kearney, known as Doke online. I am an Irish poker professional tournament player, with over $1 million in live earnings and more than $3 million in online MTTs, not to mention 8 PocketFives Triple Crowns.

I am perhaps best known for being a satellite specialist. I have won over $1 million in online satellites alone and have just written a new book on this subject called Poker Satellite Strategy:

Away from the tables I am the co-host of the Global Poker Award winning Chip Race Podcast and sponsored by Unibet Poker. Prior to poker I was an ultra marathon runner

Cardschat have kindly agreed to let me do an Ask Me Anything thread where you can ask me anything at all about satellites and tournament strategy. This will be on an ongoing basis, I’ll be checking in most weeks starting this one to answer your questions and to begin with I will be around tomorrow to answer the first batch.

Also this month I will give a free copy of my book on Apple iBooks to my favourite question, once a week for the next four weeks.

AMA


Dara

Hello, DOK. Is this thing still on? If so...

9-handed sit and go. 8 players left. Hero is the chip leader.

BTN: 38.8 BB
SB: 7.94 BB
BB: 82.9 BB
UTG: 38.9 BB
Hero (UTG+1): 89.42 BB
MP: 29.64 BB
MP+1: 38.6 BB
CO: 33.8 BB

Ante of 0.8 BB.

UTG folds. Hero in UTG+1 is dealt TcTd and raises to 2.5 BB. MP calls, MP+1 reshoves 38.5 BB, CO is all-in with 33.7 BB, and it folds back to Hero.

I only have 9 hands on MP+1 - we're only 9 hands into the game - and this is the first time he's VPIP.

I only have 24 hands on CO, but he's been loose, for what that's worth.

Against 1 player, I'm maybe/probably calling. Against 2 players, I folded. I felt one of them - especially CO - likely had a bigger pair than TT.

After the game, using PokerCruncher, I put them both on 66+, two suited Broadway cards, AQo and AKo, and T9s. Given those ranges, I would have had 34.6% equity vs pot odds of 31%.

Was folding too tight? To what extent do we factor in that it's a "final table" and we have the opportunity to eliminate two players?

Thanks

 

[dirkmueller123456]

Hi, wanted to ask something about flat payout structures. HRC says that you have to shove tighter and call more compared to chipEV which is the opposite of what we should be doing on heavy ICM situations like satelite bubbles. But in your books I think you said that on flat payouts we have to be tighter than normally. Maybe I should experiment with HRC myself

 

[Dara OKearney]

how much money you earn this year ?

You'd need to ask my wife: she tracks that

 

[Dara OKearney]

Is Dara a good strategy to play single table satellites?

No, the book specifically covers super satellites (satellites with more than one prize of equal value) rather than winner takes all satellites. The latter have no ICM so should just be played like cash game

Thanks for your question!

 

[VelcroMidget]

Hi Dara,

If you had to have HUD stats for a specific player pool you regularly play satties with, what would you have on it?

 

[Marshmalo1994]

Hi Dara! Thanks for this thread, I've been reading some interesting things about it.
Sorry if I repeat a question, but I didn't see it before.

What's the propper way to calculate the profit/ROI when I play satellites?
For example, if I play 2x$5.50 sats to a $55 mtt, lose in one and win an entry in the other one. Then I play the event and cash $110. Would my ROI be 900% (not bad right?) or 100%.
I think that is the first one, but I'm not sure. Also looks like a lot, but I know that if I play regularly it wouldn't be that way everytime.

 

[VelcroMidget]

Hi Dara,

In your original video series you show us an all in or fold strategy using HRC. With updates to HRC since then, if I run my own sims ( 9 remain, 10bb, 3 paid), it wants us to have a raise fold range.

Is this something you recommend or do you prefer to make it simple and keep a push/fold range, instead of using a strategy which is more + EV.

Cheers

Dan

 

[Clease]

Hi Dara,

one question about the satellite strategie book. I have the German edition. Can you please give me the correct translation for

COC and COD

Translation in book is overall not very good and you can find a lot of misspelling.

Cheers Wolfgang

 

[houcineben10]

How do you play a Freeroll satellite with 1500 players, 10 places paid, 1000 starting stack (hyper speed, blind lev 2min), unlimited rebuy for 5000 chips for $0.11 for the first 30 min then opportunity to buy an add on for the same price for 50000 chips.
The ticket have a value of $11.
I try it with one rebuy and try to late register to make it to the end of the late registration period to have the chance to make the add on, at this time there is only 300 players remaining and a lot of them doesn't take the add on option. I am like 150 over 300 after the add on and now I try to transform $0.22 into $11 ticket.

 

[aubrey.murnaghan]

Hi Dara, 27 left in a 4500 field $22 bounty tournament on pokerstars. Most of table short stacked ranging from 8bb -40bb .

I’m sitting with 12bb on button with a $67 bounty which is around average at this stage.

Utg 22bb makes it 2bb. Utg +1 calls, same stack. I’ve 88 on button with 12bb .

Is this always a shove as one/both should be calling with their stack sizes and size of my bounty , or can a call ever be justified and re-evaluate on a flop of probably 10 high ?

 

[Dara OKearney]

Hello. my question would be like this. Is it necessary to use computer assistants if you play a multi-table tournament, is it possible to succeed without them? I heard that professionals play with the help of programs, I do not know how to use it and whether it is necessary.

It's definitely not necessary. There are two types of software you can use, one legal (but only on certain sites), one illegal.

The legal ones are called HUDs, and collect data on this like how often your opponents raise preflop, 3 bet, cbet etc. All stuff you could track yourself if you were paying attention. They exist to help players who are playing too many tables to pay close attention to each one to get reads of how loose or aggressive any given player is. They are allowed on some sites I play (Stars, ACR, 888) and banned on others (unibet, GG, Party). If you are worried about playing against players using them, stick to the sites that don't allow them.

The illegal ones are RTA: real time assistance. These tell you the solver approved play in any situation. These are basically cheating. All the main regulated sites do a very good job of finding people who use them, so again if you're worried about playing against them stick to the main sites (all 6 listed in the previous paragraph) and avoid small shady sites or Apps.

Thanks for your question!

 

[Dara OKearney]

How do you play a Freeroll satellite with 1500 players, 10 places paid, 1000 starting stack (hyper speed, blind lev 2min), unlimited rebuy for 5000 chips for $0.11 for the first 30 min then opportunity to buy an add on for the same price for 50000 chips.
The ticket have a value of $11.
I try it with one rebuy and try to late register to make it to the end of the late registration period to have the chance to make the add on, at this time there is only 300 players remaining and a lot of them doesn't take the add on option. I am like 150 over 300 after the add on and now I try to transform $0.22 into $11 ticket.

Very interesting question. The most plus Ev way to play is either never rebuy never add on (highest ROI as its a freeroll but low hourly as you'll very rarely actually win) or:
(1) Max late reg (assuming late registration is allowed)
(2) Get to the add on as cheaply as possible (play slow to help with this) but never drop out because addon is so valuable
(3) Add on
(4) Play it like a normal satellite from that point

This method will have a lower ROI but still be very profitable, and a much higher hourly (as you'll win the ticket a lot more often).

Thanks for your question, and good luck!

 

[houcineben10]

Very interesting question. The most plus Ev way to play is either never rebuy never add on (highest ROI as its a freeroll but low hourly as you'll very rarely actually win) or:
(1) Max late reg (assuming late registration is allowed)
(2) Get to the add on as cheaply as possible (play slow to help with this) but never drop out because addon is so valuable
(3) Add on
(4) Play it like a normal satellite from that point

This method will have a lower ROI but still be very profitable, and a much higher hourly (as you'll win the ticket a lot more often).

Thanks for your question, and good luck!

Thanks a lot for your advice i will try this, yeah for sure i am not goint to win a lot of times, it will be a lower Roi as you Said. If a mange to win 1/100 it's going to be a +EV play. Since $0.11 for $11 is a great improvement gotta try your method with late registration

 

[Dara OKearney]

Hi Dara, 27 left in a 4500 field $22 bounty tournament on pokerstars. Most of table short stacked ranging from 8bb -40bb .

I’m sitting with 12bb on button with a $67 bounty which is around average at this stage.

Utg 22bb makes it 2bb. Utg +1 calls, same stack. I’ve 88 on button with 12bb .

Is this always a shove as one/both should be calling with their stack sizes and size of my bounty , or can a call ever be justified and re-evaluate on a flop of probably 10 high ?

Hi Aubrey,

Nice to see you here. Very interesting spot! Both calling and shoving are profitable, but shoving is better. It's even better in a PKO because we should be getting called by lots of worse hands. Because of the bounty hands as weak as 44, A3s, 65s etc should be calling us, and doubling or trebling up is even more valuable in a PKO as it allows us to cover more players and potentially claim their bounties.

Calling is profitable too, but if we do we are going three to fiveway and mostly set mining. We will usually miss our set and just made ourselves 2 bb shorter. So shove is the play.

Thanks for your question!

 

[Howyanow2022]

Hi Dara,

Do you think poker will be around for many years to come? Or do you think its in decline?

 

[Arnakk2424]

Hello
I will like to know what is in your opinion the way to handle tournament like this one (Pokerstars Splash).

The late reg end after 1 hour (a single rebuy cost $2.20 and give you 2.5bb double rebuy give you 5bb)

The rebuy period last for another 30 min. What the strategy here ? sit-out and wait for the add-on (which is 10x the amounts of chips) or try to accumulate chip ?

At the end of the rebuy period you get 33000 chips (3.3b) but a LOT of players gived up. (see the screenshot, 9 players left, 4 players paid, 2 seats) I see Huge value in that but i'm not sure how to handle it. All the remaining plays were huge fish except me and preston300. We both had the same strategy of min buy in and wait the add-on.

 

[Dara OKearney]

Hi Dara,

Do you think poker will be around for many years to come? Or do you think its in decline?

Live poker will definitely be around for a long time, in my opinion. I'm not as confident about online, there are several existential threats: RTA, legislation etc. But I'm hopeful!

Thanks for your question