In qualifier, when you are close to the prizes, play should be much different than a regular MTT.
In a regular MTT, you are trying to maximize your $EV. This implies that while you are trying to get in the money, you are not trying to get there with a hoplessly small stack because you would not be able to get to the bigger prizes. The latter implies that you have to take chances and try to steal blinds.
The button is a very good spot for stealing when you are first to act because you only have 2 players left to act. If you wait for a better hand during this round, you will have more players to act so you would require a much better hand in early position to compensate for the significantly increased probability that you will get called by the players behind you.
In a qualifier, all this changes. Stealing near the bubble is completely useless if your stack is sufficient to sneak in the money.
When I am in a similar situation, I measure the speed with which players get eliminated and project that trend to estimate the time to reach the prizes. I also measure the speed of the rounds. With these 2 measurements, you can usually estimate whether your stack is sufficient to sneak in the money.
If I am absolutely sure my stack is big enough, I will stop playing completely. That includes folding AA preflop!
If I am sure I need more chips, then I will move all-in (with short stack) against players in the following order of preference:
- Players whose stack is big enough to make it, but if they lose, it will not be
- Big stacks that are (correctly) sitting out
- Small stacks like me
The objective is to steal the blinds, not to get called. When you are short, you can't wait for good
hands, so you have to pick your spots.
Finally, if I am borderline and may or may not make it, I will tighten up and use superior conditions and hands to play. For example, AK against a stack big enough to make it, but not if they lose the hand. In some extreme cases, delaying tactics in this situation might help as well.
