PHX
Legend
Loyaler
They have him projected 4th to Browns. They have Sam Darnold 1st overall. I don't think a RB will go 1st overall. Interesting to see if Giants will take him 2nd though if available.
Just like last year where I would have taken Watson because he to me was the best player I would take Baker Mayfield this year 1st overall cause he is the best player. Mock boards have him to Broncos at 5.
Just like last year where I would have taken Watson because he to me was the best player I would take Baker Mayfield this year 1st overall cause he is the best player. Mock boards have him to Broncos at 5.
jho
Legend
Silver Level
As a Giants fan I am conflicted about whether I would be happy if the Giants drafted him. I also feel like a QB is a must that high in the draft, but if there was not a QB that the Giants identified as a difference maker for the next 10+ years and they identified Barkley as a Pro Bowl generational type of RB, it would be a hard push.
OzExorcist
Broomcorn's uncle
Bronze Level
No, absolutely not.
That's not to throw shade on Barkley, he seems like a great prospect. But the only way a team is taking a running back first overall is if they have that pick, they already have solutions for their other more valuable positions of need (QB, edge rusher, etc) and nobody is willing to trade them enough other players and picks to take that first overall pick off their hands.
Right now the Browns have the #1 pick and they've got much more pressing needs than running back... like getting a quarterback.
Plus even if they're so in love with him that they think he's worth a top-five pick, who else is going to take him from them between pick 1 and pick 4? The Giants and Indi could both definitely use an upgrade at RB, but they both have much more pressing needs too.
That's not to throw shade on Barkley, he seems like a great prospect. But the only way a team is taking a running back first overall is if they have that pick, they already have solutions for their other more valuable positions of need (QB, edge rusher, etc) and nobody is willing to trade them enough other players and picks to take that first overall pick off their hands.
Right now the Browns have the #1 pick and they've got much more pressing needs than running back... like getting a quarterback.
Plus even if they're so in love with him that they think he's worth a top-five pick, who else is going to take him from them between pick 1 and pick 4? The Giants and Indi could both definitely use an upgrade at RB, but they both have much more pressing needs too.
ribbybruno
Skadoosh!!
Loyaler
I am a Giants fan myself. Barkley would be a huge upgrade at running back. The Saints with Kamara and the Chiefs with Hill made big strides on their teams with swagger at running back. Open up the field for our wide receivers. Manning has a few more years still. I would like to see a QB drafted who can inspire and push him. The Wentz/Foles relationship maybe?
Browns need a QB - Darnold is not their answer. Allen from Wyoming would be better. A cold weather quarterback with big hands and coachable.
jho
Legend
Silver Level
I definitely see your points, but I am really scared of Allen. His closest comp is Jamarcus Russell, and I definitely do not want the Giants to draft him.
C
Cdub512
Legend
Silver Level
Yes, especially because of the trades the Browns made yesterday. Take him at #1, and take a QB at #4. A guy like Josh Allen...he can sit behind Taylor for a year or 2 and develop. I'm a Bengals fan, and I can see the Browns doing well next season based on the moves they made.
S
Stacker
Rock Star
Silver Level
If I am the Browns this is what I do. Draft your QB if you love one. ( if not draft Barkley end of conversation. I think Barkley and Chub go 2 and 3 in any given order. The Browns then trade pic 4 to the Bills ( or the highest bidder ) for there two number ones this year a number 2 and a number 1 next year.
OzExorcist
Broomcorn's uncle
Bronze Level
So I agree, the trades the Browns have made make Saquon Barkley going #1 overall a little more likely, but it's a long way from a lock that they or anyone else takes him there.
I'd still expect the Browns to draft another QB in the first round, given they still need a backup and one assumes someone to develop behind Tyrod. It's still possible they trade away the #1 pick too, and I don't think anyone is trading up to take a RB at #1.
It's possible they take him #1, but I don't see it as the most likely scenario.
Wait wait wait... you think someone will give the Browns three first rounders and a second rounder for the fourth overall pick?!?
Don't get me wrong, if I'm the Browns I'm accepting that trade and laughing as I do it. But they're not getting offered that. The fourth overall pick has a value of about 1800 points of draft capital. The Bills have picks 12 and 22 in the first round this year, with a combined value of 1980. So just getting those two alone would be an overpayment, let alone another first rounder and a second rounder. What you've proposed might even be an overpayment for the first overall pick (depending on which one of their second rounders it is, and where their first round pick falls next year)
Something more like the 12th, 55th and 65th picks from the Bills this year would be pretty close to equivalent value (total of 1815).
See here for the pick values: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp
I'd still expect the Browns to draft another QB in the first round, given they still need a backup and one assumes someone to develop behind Tyrod. It's still possible they trade away the #1 pick too, and I don't think anyone is trading up to take a RB at #1.
It's possible they take him #1, but I don't see it as the most likely scenario.
Wait wait wait... you think someone will give the Browns three first rounders and a second rounder for the fourth overall pick?!?
Don't get me wrong, if I'm the Browns I'm accepting that trade and laughing as I do it. But they're not getting offered that. The fourth overall pick has a value of about 1800 points of draft capital. The Bills have picks 12 and 22 in the first round this year, with a combined value of 1980. So just getting those two alone would be an overpayment, let alone another first rounder and a second rounder. What you've proposed might even be an overpayment for the first overall pick (depending on which one of their second rounders it is, and where their first round pick falls next year)
Something more like the 12th, 55th and 65th picks from the Bills this year would be pretty close to equivalent value (total of 1815).
See here for the pick values: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp
S
Stacker
Rock Star
Silver Level
Look at the draft points system when the bills had 21 and 22 that's what it would of taken. Now the bills have 12 and 22 it's a different story. But still can get 12 22 and another pick for 4 at minimum.
OzExorcist
Broomcorn's uncle
Bronze Level
So a question for the "Barkley is going #1" crowd: does the Browns acquiring Carlos Hyde in free agency change your opinion at all?
I'm still not sure I follow - even when the Bills had 21 and 22, not 12 and 22, their combined first round pick value was 1580. You'd need to throw in something extra to get to 1800 for the fourth overall pick, but that something extra wouldn't be a second rounder AND another future first rounder.
I don't understand how you think the Browns are going to get a team to overpay them by that much for the #4 pick either. We've established that 12 and 22 would already be a slight overpayment, but you still think they should get another pick as well? I know teams do stupid things on draft day when they've fallen in love with a player (Exhibit A: Chicago in last year's draft) but that would straight up be wasting draft capital.
Here's what might be the more important question though: who do you think the Bills are hoping to get by trading up to #4? A quarterback? There's no guarantees the one they want will still be there at #4.
I'm still not sure I follow - even when the Bills had 21 and 22, not 12 and 22, their combined first round pick value was 1580. You'd need to throw in something extra to get to 1800 for the fourth overall pick, but that something extra wouldn't be a second rounder AND another future first rounder.
I don't understand how you think the Browns are going to get a team to overpay them by that much for the #4 pick either. We've established that 12 and 22 would already be a slight overpayment, but you still think they should get another pick as well? I know teams do stupid things on draft day when they've fallen in love with a player (Exhibit A: Chicago in last year's draft) but that would straight up be wasting draft capital.
Here's what might be the more important question though: who do you think the Bills are hoping to get by trading up to #4? A quarterback? There's no guarantees the one they want will still be there at #4.
jho
Legend
Silver Level
I see the logic behind your explanation, but NFL teams have also shown to be not too logical when it comes to trading and they fall in love with a particular QB prospect.
S
Stacker
Rock Star
Silver Level
Well the colts just may have made the best possible deal in the draft. Dropped three spots and picked up 3 quality picks. It will be interesting to see what the bills do now. The Browns will have either Barkley or Chubb at 4 if they want or do they trade ?
S
Stacker
Rock Star
Silver Level
Draft is getting interesting. Bills gonna be calling Giants now and possibly the Browns at 4..... Love the trade for the colts. 3 spots still get a player and picked up 3 quality picks
T
TDTODDY
Rock Star
Silver Level
Taking Barkley first is the smart move. The Qb situation is a crap shoot. History shows only one of the top five will become elite. Take a look at any draft (except 83 or 15) and you'll find that the rb or ol that were projected as elite were at least serviceable. Qbs, not so much. Barkley is elite and durable so far, a no brainer in my book.
S
Stacker
Rock Star
Silver Level
Yeah I can see Giants possibly also if they do that it opens up more trades on draft day for sure
OzExorcist
Broomcorn's uncle
Bronze Level
I guess it depends on how you define "elite" - if it's Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers "elite" then it's obviously not even one in five
That said, you don't get better at quarterback by not picking up any quarterbacks and even if you think all the top quarterbacks are crapshoots, a team would surely prefer the crapshoot they like the most to the one they like third or fourth-most.
This Jets trade makes it more and more likely that Barkley will still be on the board at #4 so I don't think the Browns should get cute here - I've gotta believe they're taking the QB they like the best at number one. Assume the Giants are either taking a QB #2 or trading down with someone else who wants to. The Jets have to be taking a QB #3 with the amount of draft capital they've just shelled out to get that pick. The Colts (who are set at QB, in theory) aren't there to steal anyone away any more.
T
TDTODDY
Rock Star
Silver Level
Getting a back like Barkley extends Eli 2 or 3 years, and takes some of the heat off the ol and wrs. Barkley will not be there at 4. The Browns inexplicably gave Hyde 15mil for 3 years (6 in year one). They don't expect him there at 4 either. I think they will pick a qb 1st, win 3 games, cut Hyde, sign another rb nobody else wanted, rinse, repeat.