Sand's DraftKings Thread

[Mr Sandbag]

I've decided to take daily (weekly?) FF more seriously this year as opposed to last year's donkathon of setting random lineups. Every week I'm going to post some lineups and/or predictions, thoughts, etc. along with results from the previous week.

Feel free to comment and rip apart my predictions!

 

[xdeucesx]

Definitely in. Plan to bink the milly maker week one

 

[Mr Sandbag]

Me too! What a coincidence.

 

[Mr Sandbag]

So for the first week of the season I'm in the following Draft Kings contests:

Millionaire Maker
NFL Kickoff Million
NFL $5K Daily Dollar
NFL $5K Huddle
3-Player Winner Take All
(5) H2H
(2) 50/50
(2) freerolls

I used a few different lineups, so I'm not going to bother posting them. But here are some players I like this week (I actually didn't end up using all of these players).

BEST VALUE

These players are available for a great salary compared to how I think they'll perform.

QB: Carson Palmer, Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Tannehill, Tony Romo

RB: DeMarco Murray, Justin Forsett, Chris Ivory, Lamar Miller

WR: Davante Adams, Eddie Royal, Julian Edelman, Jarvis Landry

TE: Martellus Bennett, Delanie Walker, Rob Gronkowski


HIGH UPSIDE

Similar to above but these value picks provide the highest upside for their salaries.

QB: Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Tyrod Taylor (some upside and super cheap)

RB: DeMarco Murray, Andre Ellington, Chris Ivory, Justin Forsett, Ryan Mathews (a long shot but he's so cheap and might be a great pick for a huge tournament)

WR: Demaryius Thomas, Davante Adams, Eddie Royal (especially if Alshon is out), Doug Baldwin (pairing him with Russell Wilson could payoff big time)

TE: Jordan Cameron (not as big of a fan as some people, but I like the price compared to his ceiling)


Thoughts? Agree? Disagree? Think I'm an idiot? Comment!

 

[Mr Sandbag]

Hoping Eddie Royal plays. Listed as questionable but practiced all week. Def a mistake to play a questionable player but at the time everything I read expressed optimism that he was fine.

 

[rifflemao]

In with zero clue, but interested in FF. Is there any kind of referral bonus for DraftKings? I haven't signed up yet so if you have a referral code let me know.

 

[xdeucesx]

My cash LU was saved by that late Ben-->Brown TD lol. I'll stop in tomorrow if I'm running deep in any GPP's. I'm planning on firing some smaller ones on draftkings and fantasydraft.

 

[rifflemao]

How are you looking so far in the 10 Milly, Sands? I forgot to check out some of your value and upside picks first, but managed to choose a lineup that is sitting around 121 points, but with only one player left to contribute...so probably a mincash at best.

Hope your teams are running well.

 

[Mr Sandbag]

It makes me wanna puke tbh. My MM lineups are performing poorly. But the lineup I didn't enter into the MM is sitting at 178 with Demarco Murray to play.

 

[rifflemao]

It makes me wanna puke tbh. My MM lineups are performing poorly. But the lineup I didn't enter into the MM is sitting at 178 with Demarco Murray to play.

Ugh, I figured things like that will be a possibility going forward. I'll probably get bumped out altogether after tonight, based on the fluctuations I've seen.

 

[xdeucesx]

MM lu was a big bust but my cash LU is sitting at 140 w/2 players left still. I think I'm going to sweep my 30-40 HU entries atm but bust MM + 10$ GPP so a +10$ weekend or so for me on DK.

Went 7/7 cashing LU's on FantasyDraft due to the severe overlay lol, but probably just min/medium cashes, nothing too sick. I had a Titans stack in a freeroll so going to bink 50$ + a ticket for their 250k 25$ bi next week too.

 

[Mr Sandbag]

Yeah it looks like I'm going to sweep my HU contests, but I'll cash in zero of the GPP's. I also entered the prime time contests tonight. Really hoping Murray is a dud tonight. Not sure I can handle holding that lineup out of a top ten MM finish.

 

[xdeucesx]

DraftKings:

Swept my cash LU's - +40$
Min cashed milly- +25$
min cashed 10$ GPP- 12.50$

I had 48 pts going into tonight in milly but had hyde/julio/matty ice and they bumped me enough for a min cash lol


FantasyDraft:

Cashed 8/9 LU's for +300$ profit, biggest cash was a 180 pt LU that finished top 150 in the 25$, 250k GTD for 200$.


Great first week in DFS for me. I hope everyone else is crushing as well!


edit: Milly LU- https://gyazo.com/faa716f165781686fcc46597ea0d3d71

I always play high variance LU's since I'm not interested in a 25$ cash obv. It's too bad Djax got hurt like super early in 1Q

Best FD LU: https://gyazo.com/70f05078003a530eb3a963c2c00c5bb4

 

[Mr Sandbag]

My GPP lineups performed quite poorly so none of them cashed. Oddly enough my HU lineups scored 150 and 196 and I won most of those (lost one match up by 0.3 points). If I had entered the lineup that scored 196 into some GPP's I would have turned a 4-figure profit this week. Oh well - on to week 2!

 

[Mr Sandbag]

Haven't had time to do another write up this week about my favorite plays. Might do it tomorrow, if not Friday. Just know that none of the players on the list were going to be from TNF anyway. I think it's smart to stay away from that game entirely.

 

[xdeucesx]

Haven't had time to do another write up this week about my favorite plays. Might do it tomorrow, if not Friday. Just know that none of the players on the list were going to be from TNF anyway. I think it's smart to stay away from that game entirely.

Agreed. No reason to play anyone in TNF this week imo.

I like Foles as a sneaky play at QB for cheap against a weak Washington secondary. The Skins are sneaky good against the run, so I expect the rams to pass. My only fear is the Rams get too far ahead and Foles gets capped...but I think he's a solid cash game play for super cheap.

 

[Mr Sandbag]

Agreed. I think he's the top QB play tbh, even if he does stop passing later in the game. He doesn't need too many points to realize or exceed his full value.

 

[Mr Sandbag]

Just now finalized my lineups. I was really hoping Delanie Walker would play but he's not expected to. Anyways, here is a quick run down on who I like this week. Played a lot more GPP's this week and only a few H2H. Two MM entries.

QB

Nick Foles (best value)
Carson Palmer
Aaron Rodgers (high upside)

RB

Justin Forsett (best value)
Ameer Abdullah
Mark Ingram (high upside)

WR

Brandon Coleman (great value + high upside + sleeper)
Terrance Williams
Randall Cobb
Odell Beckham
Larry Fitzgerald

TE

Jason Witten
Tyler Eifert
Jordan Reed (assuming he plays)

DST

Dolphins
Ravens

 

[rifflemao]

GL! I'm mostly grinding the .25 arcade this time around for bankroll management.

 

[Mr Sandbag]

None of these players are in the MNF game, so here's a little review. Players I consider to be busts are in red. "Successful" picks in bold green. Two defenses projected to have big games really killed me this week. Even if they had mediocre performances of 5-10 points it would have made a significant difference for me.

QB

Nick Foles (best value) - 10.1 pts
Carson Palmer - 22.2 pts
Aaron Rodgers (high upside) - 22.26 pts

RB

Justin Forsett (best value) - 12 pts
Ameer Abdullah - 2.8pts
Mark Ingram (high upside) - 13.8 pts

WR

Brandon Coleman (great value + high upside + sleeper) - 6.3 pts
Terrance Williams - 18.4 pts
Randall Cobb - 22.6 pts
Odell Beckham - 30.6 pts
Larry Fitzgerald - 40.2 pts

TE

Jason Witten - 12.6 pts
Tyler Eifert - 14.9 pts
Jordan Reed (assuming he plays) - 14.2 pts

DST

Dolphins - 0
Ravens - (-1)

 

[rifflemao]

I need to pay more attention to your picks. Had Beckham in a lineup at the micros that finished at 178ish points for maybe a couple bucks, but I completely missed out on Fitzgerald.

 

[xdeucesx]

Miami really shit the bed this week, like that killed so many DFS LUs

 

[Mr Sandbag]

I need to pay more attention to your picks. Had Beckham in a lineup at the micros that finished at 178ish points for maybe a couple bucks, but I completely missed out on Fitzgerald.

Haha I'm no pro. I'm just doing this for fun. This is the first year I'm not just setting lineups on the fly. That being said, I do put quite a bit of effort into projections and such, so hopefully I can continue making good picks!

Miami really shit the bed this week, like that killed so many DFS LUs

Yeah for sure. I'm not entirely sold on the idea of making contrarian picks in GPP's, but going that route for a defense may have some merit. I have to believe the Dolphins and Ravens were in most lineups. The problem is defenses never have high salaries, so picking the top defense is almost always unbelievable value.

Oh well. I have a prime time (SNF and MNF) lineup going tonight. Hopefully I can cash in that and hang on to a few cashes in the other contests.

 

[xdeucesx]

Exactly, yeah it doesn't seem like a strong play to go contrarian on D since Miami was only like 3.4k or whatever and the avg D's were like 2.9k. For only 500$, seems bad to just try to gamble on a bad D.

Miami D appears to be a fluke instead of the rule

 

[Mr Sandbag]

Pretty good week! In for $101 out for $341 including a couple MM tickets. Gross part is I placed 34th out of 115k people in the prime time contest and only got $200 because of how top heavy the contest is ($100k to 1st, $10k to 2nd).