Dal +5 - Yep, this is just another bet against Philadelphia (who I think is the most over rated team in the NFL). Maybe this line is bigger because Dez Bryant is out, but WR's just aren't that important. Dallas & Philly have the same rating according to
Football Outsiders FWIW. This line should be 3, and I think even your mom knows it.
Cle +1 - Woah woah woah. I love Mariota as much as the next guy, but let's not go laying 4 points on the road with the Titans. Cleveland also isn't as bad as they looked against the Jets. They fumbled 4 times, losing all four, with an interception to boot. Even the Browns won't have 5 turnovers a game, and typically if you fumble 4 times, you'll only lose 2 (recovering fumbles is not a skill). GIMME JOHNNY ****IN' FOOTBALL.
NE 0 - We knew last year that a physical running team can
beat Indy, deflated footballs or not. Buffalo did it, and now they're only 3 points worse than the Pats? This line was like -4 last year, and Buffalo is pretty much the same team. Plus the Patriots get the mini-bye off the Thursday night game.
Car -3.5 - I only have to pay a half a point to get a talent gap like Cam Newton to Ryan Mallet. Mallet couldn't look better than Brian Hoyer in the preseason. (Homer pick)
SF +5 - People seem to be writing off the Minnesota game as a fluke. SF has a legit offensive line, and Pitt hasn't stopped anyone on defense for years. I'll buy some 49'ers.
Sea +3.5 - St. Louis is good, and Seattle lost a close game in overtime due to Pete Carroll being an idiot. They're not suddenly a bad team. If this game was in week 1, the line would be at least 3, if not less. Bryan Bulaga's banged up, Randall Cobb isn't himself. I'll take half a point of value that the Seahawks can hang around and pressure Rodgers.
And yeah, I think the Den @ KC line is an over reaction to week 1. Basically, it's safer to bet that the old QB won't fall off a cliff, than the reactionary "Manning is done" logic. I just didn't get my bet in for that game in time.