nfl/college betting thread

[SMD Jabroni]

I completely agree.
but for whatever reason, pride maybe? teams don't do that.
its happened the last couple years where the team with the worst record somehow wins the last game or two and messes up their own future.

 

[OzExorcist]

Yeah - I don't think it's a useful predictive measure one way or the other when you're trying to work out who's going to win any given game.

All I'm saying is that it doesn't even work as a non-predictive talking head narrative

 

[ribbybruno]

So I know they won outright and you're gonna think that validates your pick... but let's put that kind of results-oriented thinking aside for a moment.

The bit about close games isn't even true! Before this weekend they only had four games decided by one score or less. Their 10 other games they lost by an average of 17.2 points. So it's not like they've been having heartbreaking losses all year or anything - they've been getting blown out fair and square.

As for the fans, I don't think that has any predictive value whatsoever on the outcome of the game but still, come on: everyone who was paying any attention knew the Browns were going to be terrible this year. They probably had the paper bags at the ready regardless.

And I don't even know where to start with what you're saying about draft picks and money. The difference in salary between the first and second pick in the draft is only about $1 million over four years, which is nothing. And the Browns already have a ton of cap space available. So it's not like they don't want the first pick because they can't afford it or anything.

On the flipside the number one pick is a fair bit more valuable than the number two pick (it's worth the equivalent of having the #2 and #50 pick). This is particularly important if you're a moneyball team like Cleveland now is, and there's a decent chance you trade the pick away for more picks further down the draft: you'll get more/better picks for #1 than you will for #2.

I was never looking for validation. I know it was an off the cuff pick. San Diego had nothing to play for and Cleveland wanted to get at least one win. The first pick is theirs with San Francisco winning. The Browns can lay down now.

Cleveland was ahead in a lot of their games going into the half before being dismantled in the second half by a lot of ball clubs. I just feel they need a lot more help than just the 1st pick of the draft. I totally agree with you on what the Browns need to do. I hope they start with defense!

 

[OzExorcist]

Cleveland was ahead in a lot of their games going into the half before being dismantled in the second half by a lot of ball clubs.

OMG LOL - even that isn't true!

In their 14 games prior to the San Diego game they were only ahead at halftime in four of them (v Bal, @ Mia, v NYJ, @ Bal).

 

[ribbybruno]

OMG LOL - even that isn't true!

In their 14 games prior to the San Diego game they were only ahead at halftime in four of them (v Bal, @ Mia, v NYJ, @ Bal).

Let's break it down game by game -

Week 1 - @ Eagles - Down 6 at halftime - Lose by 19 - Browns score only 3 2nd half
Week 2 - vs Ravens - Up 8 at halftime - Lose by 5 - Browns score 0 in 2nd half
Week 3 - @ Miami - Up 3 at halftime - Lose by 6(OT) - Browns score 11 in 2nd half
Week 4 - @ Washington - Tied at 17 - Lose by 11 - Browns score 3 in 2nd half
Week 5 - vs Patriots - Down 16 at halftime - Lose by 20 - Browns score 6 in 2nd half
Week 6 - @ Titans - Down 1 at halftime - Lose by 2 - Browns score 13 in 2nd half
Week 7 - @ Bengals - Down 11 at halftime - Lose by 14 - Browns score 7 in 2nd half
Week 8 - vs Jets - Up 13 at halftime - Lose by 3 - Browns score 8 in 2nd half
Week 9 - vs Cowboys - Down 11 at halftime - Lose by 25 - Browns score 0 in 2nd half
Week 10 - @ Ravens - Up 1 at halftime - Lose by 21 - Browns score 0 in 2nd half
Week 11 - vs Steelers - Down 14 at halftime - Lose by 15 - Browns score 9 in 2nd half
Week 12 - vs Giants - Down 8 at halftime - Lose by 14 - Browns score 7 in 2nd half
Week 13 - Bye week
Week 14 - vs Bengals - Down 20 at halftime - Lose by 13 - Browns score 10 in 2nd half
Week 15 - @ Bills - Down 14 at halftime - Lose by 20 - Browns score 10 in 2nd half
Week 16 - vs Chargers - Up 7 at halftime - Win by 3 - Browns score 3 in 2nd half

Week 1 thru 5 - Up 2 games, Down 2 games and tied in 1
Week 6 thru 10 - Up 2 games, Down 3 games
Week 11 thru 16 - Up 1 game, Down 4 games

Okay you have me here! lol Winning in 5 games, tied in 1 game and losing in 9 games.

The Browns did have a chance to be 3-1 in their 1st 4 games which they squandered.

The Browns scored a total of 90 points in the second half of ball games. Not very good.

 

[OzExorcist]

Yeah I didn't count the San Diego game, because we're still talking about your decision to bet on that game - you can't count something that hadn't happened yet

I think this is a perfect illustration of the need to take some of the concepts we take for granted on poker and transfer them over to sports betting. Don't be results oriented, and beware of selective memory.

 

[ribbybruno]

Yeah I didn't count the San Diego game, because we're still talking about your decision to bet on that game - you can't count something that hadn't happened yet

I think this is a perfect illustration of the need to take some of the concepts we take for granted on poker and transfer them over to sports betting. Don't be results oriented, and beware of selective memory.

The reasons I like the game happened (2) ways. The first was several analysts saw the game as a Brown victory. The second was I really did think the Browns had more to play for than the Chargers. Win/lose - the (+5.5) was what I was shooting for. I had a good feeling the Browns would cover this spread and they did.


Week 17 -

Denver (-1.5) @ Home Vs Oakland - Broncos win here vs McGloin starting for Raiders
Cincy (+1.5) @ Home Vs Baltimore - Bengals (3-3-1) @ Home - played better as of late- been getting healthy

 

[ribbybruno]

NFL Wild Card Weekend -

Today -

Houston (-3.5) @ Home Vs Oakland - Raiders starting 3rd string QB - enough said

Seattle (-8) @ Home Vs Detroit - Seahawks crowd will give Stafford and the Lions fits. Seattle (7-1) at home.

Sunday -

Green Bay (-5.5) @ Home Vs New York Giants - Giants trouble scoring will be their undoing. Packers playing too well to lose this track meet.

Pittsburgh (-11) @ Home Vs Miami - Steelers ground game too much for Dolphin sub par run defense.

1 Unit each

 

[atlantafalcons0]

NFL Wild Card Weekend -

Today -

Houston (-3.5) @ Home Vs Oakland - Raiders starting 3rd string QB - enough said Houston starting Osweiller - Raiders defense will come to play.

Seattle (-8) @ Home Vs Detroit - Seahawks crowd will give Stafford and the Lions fits. Seattle (7-1) at home. Seattle defense banged up and no running game, Stafford with something to prove.

Sunday -

Green Bay (-5.5) @ Home Vs New York Giants - Giants trouble scoring will be their undoing. Packers playing too well to lose this track meet. Giants defense will play well and get to Aaron, Playoff Eli shows up.

Pittsburgh (-11) @ Home Vs Miami - Steelers ground game too much for Dolphin sub par run defense. Miami has an amazing running game, defense will pick Rothlisberger multiple times.



1 Unit each

I'm taking the opposite of these bets lol.

 

[PHX]

Like Oakland and Lions today not betting it though.

Would be waging on tomorrow games. I like Packers & Steelers tomorrow.

 

[we will rock you]

raiders ml and seahawks ml

 

[DrazaFFT]

Didnt realize that there is NFL betting thread i almost created a thread to share my picks for divisional

Thoughts?

 

[Shakes]

Well for the picks themselves, I like the home teams in each game except the Dallas/Pack game (I picked Packers to go to the SB in NFC). The ones I am wary of is that same game and I do think Seattle has a chance against the Falcons. But Seattle is still without Earl Thomas in that game so thats why I am taking a chance with picking the Falcons.

Only way Texans have a shot is with turnovers on the Patriots and I doubt that will happen.

I picked the Chiefs because of Ben being hurt last game and I think the Chiefs are the one team in the AFC that could end the Patriots SB bid.

Happy Divisional weekend everyone

 

[DrazaFFT]

I kinda dont see Chiefs winning a big game, that's why i picked Pittsburgh and that is why i had Seattle over Atlanta

 

[ribbybruno]

Big games this weekend!

I believe New England will be only team to cover the spread -

New England (-15.5) @ Home Vs Houston - Texans may only score 10 points against Pats - Final 29 -10

1 Unit

The other 3 games are very close! Anything can happen and one play may make or break the spread. I will play it safe and protect my winnings from last week.

 

[we will rock you]

seattle +6.5, and the over in the game

 

[ribbybruno]

Championship Sunday -

Atlanta (-5.5) @ Home Vs Green Bay - Packers 30th ranked defense is a concern. Running backs for Falcons may be difference.

New England (-6) @ Home Vs Pittsburgh - Nobody talks about Patriots defense. Match up - Patriot defensive front vs Steeler running game.

1 Unit Each

 

[ribbybruno]

Super Bowl Sunday - In Houston

New England (-3) Vs Atlanta - Patriots shut down Falcons vertical game. Belichick proves to be one of the best coaches ever in NFL.

New England/Atlanta OVER 58.5 - Both teams should score over 30 on the quick field in Houston

1 Unit Each

Enjoy the game everyone! Tailgate to the fullest!

 

[skaterick]

It's amazing how often the Patriots cover the spread ! I will be betting on them again this Sunday .

 

[ribbybruno]

Final Stats -

Overall - (34-12) +20.80 Units

Regular Season - (25-12)

Wild Card Weekend - (4-0)

Divisional - (1-0)

Conference Championships - (2-0)

Super Bowl - (2-0)

I feel very blessed to go undefeated through the playoffs.

See you next NFL Season!