NFL Betting Thread

[millertime]

Week 1 is fast approaching.

I currently have a $500 bovada bankroll. my goal (or dream) is to get to $15k before football season is over.

I'm feeling pretty strongly about going big on colts and patriots weeks 1 & 2. both of them have pretty easy match ups.

I'm thinking about doing either a $350 parlay with colts and pats against the spread or doing 2 $200 bets ATS on each time individually.

To minimize risk, i was tossing around the idea of a 2 team teaser, but i just feel both these teams are going to blow out their week 1 opponents by 14+ pts.

what match ups do you guys like? what's your "lock of the week"?

i plan to post more in this thread with results, thoughts and feedback.

 

[TheKid84]

That's some serious coin. I love the sports betting initiative you're looking to put in. There's a link in my signature, a link to a bunch of parlays a few of us have been putting down. We aren't on the level you are, but I will be subbing to see how you do this year. Will be rooting for ya, for I see we will have some similar bets

Looking at week 1's schedule, I'd say those are the two games I'll be targeting as well. I'm not sure if the Pats will be able to get the 14+ you spoke of, but if anyone can find diamonds in the rough it is that organization.

Best of luck.

 

[TheKid84]

By the way - looks like they have a sports betting bonus for the NFL going on. Check it out.

https://www.bovada.lv/content/sportsbook-promotions/survive-the-season

 

[millertime]

thanks for the link. i signed up. kinda lame bonus honestly considering you'd have to bet $1700 to get a $250 bonus @ the end of the season. I hate how they dont give bonuses relative to what you bet, especially considering that in poker you get really nice bonuses ($50 a week). sports betting is straight cash in their pockets too.

anyway, man, i'm not a super high roller or anything, it's just that i feel pretty good about these 1st 2 weeks of the season after watching all preseason.

lines are just being posted on some sights (not bovada yet) and right now my lock of the week is Seattle -3. I mean, am i missing something here? carolina CAN NOT stop the run and seattle has a sick D and cam is not so good.

i'm really thinking Pats-10/Colts-9/Seattle-3 parlay or teaser. i really feel strongly all 3 teams are going to cover so i may just roll with the parlay. i'm going big too like $300. then probably 2 $100 straight bets to cover my ass in case i lose. thinking of just doubling down on colts and pats ATS. maybe a $200 2 team teaser as my "safe" bet.

disclaimer: i realize i may lose it all and be starting @ $20 next week :x

 

[millertime]

oh man just realized i posted in your thread. I should post a couple parlays i made after being inspired by your thread. hit a 22-1 $3 6 team parlay in baseball and a 25-1 $3 for $78 on preseason football (week of 8/16). i tried to copy and paste from the poker client but it wont let me. those bets and your thread helped me get up, now i'm ready to go big or go home

(also hit a 4 team teaser on CFB, took georgia, florida, alabama, and oklahoma $100 for $83)

 

[vic75]

The Regular season kicks off this Thursday with a rematch of last seasons playoff
game between the Broncos and Ravens I like the the ravens too cover the spread of 9.5 points

 

[BenSprocket]

Thanks for starting this thread. I'm a huge NFL fan and will follow this with interest and look forward to some interesting tips.

 

[millertime]

The Regular season kicks off this Thursday with a rematch of last seasons playoff
game between the Broncos and Ravens I like the the ravens too cover the spread of 9.5 points

honestly man, i live here in denver and i feel like ravens +9 is a trap bet. broncos obviously want revenge and they averaged 35pts a game last year. with the questions on offense that ravens have, i just dont see them being BETTER than last year and being able to match 35. defense is going to be KEYED up for this game! remember the ravens were close to getting crushed last year. it took a miracle. also remember denver CRUSHED them in baltimore just a couple weeks before.

broncos are def the better team. that said, i'm not going to wager much on this game. maybe just a $20 broncos/over parlay.

another good bet would be the over in the 1st quarter. probably going to be 10.5 or something. I see 17pts in the 1st Q combined.

(that ended up being the coldest day of the year here)

 

[millertime]

also, i am a bengals fan at heart. who dey?! i do follow a lot of broncos and listen to local sports radio so i can hopefully make smart bets. people think they are going to lose a few this season. i'm thinking about not betting them much until their monday night match up vs oakland in week 3.

im off this sunday and will be @ a BWW or someplace similar drinking beer and yelling at the tv!

 

[vic75]

honestly man, i live here in denver and i feel like ravens +9 is a trap bet. broncos obviously want revenge and they averaged 35pts a game last year. with the questions on offense that ravens have, i just dont see them being BETTER than last year and being able to match 35. defense is going to be KEYED up for this game! remember the ravens were close to getting crushed last year. it took a miracle. also remember denver CRUSHED them in baltimore just a couple weeks before.

broncos are def the better team. that said, i'm not going to wager much on this game. maybe just a $20 broncos/over parlay.

another good bet would be the over in the 1st quarter. probably going to be 10.5 or something. I see 17pts in the 1st Q combined.

(that ended up being the coldest day of the year here)

I think its going too be a close game Denver wins by a touchdown:icon_scra

 

[TheKid84]

Ive been playing with some of the spread/teaser options, and here's what I'm looking to do possibly. Let me know your thoughts.

Bears -3 over Bengals
Broncos -8 over Ravens
Seahawks -3 over Panthers
Colts -10 over the Raiders

I was playing with the Teaser option, and I can do a +6 to this parlay with still a decent payout. Adding 6 to those scores, risking $2 would win $5.20. If we'd want to go bigger, risking $20 would win $52 and so on. I like the +6 teaser with this line and feel it's a decent payout for those games.

Thoughts anyone??

EDIT: From conversations with my brother, he has had me rethink the CHI/CIN game. Bovada hasn't released the line of the NE/BUF yet, but it's looking to be around the NE -11 area. If that's the case, I might sub that game in for the CHI/CIN game. Feel free to post any thoughts.

 

[kmbpoker]

FOOTBALL LONGSHOT PICK

any sportsbook players got a pick. mine is the vikings. they got there D in shape and seem deep enough to get through the whole season. i expect to see alot of good games this year as alot of teams are coming together at the same time. so who has a long shot

 

[arahel_jazz]

AZ Cardinals... 'enuff said.

 

[99TERRANCE99]

FINALLY regular season football smoked it on college ball in week 1 cant wait to see the real players in for 4 quarters ,money time

 

[brokenlung911]

vikes? yeah better D but no QB lol im going with Denver

 

[robhimself]

AZ Cardinals... 'enuff said.

Wait, are we picking which team will finish last in their division?

 

[hobonc]

I had $42 in rakeback at the casino I go to in Vegas good for sports bets. I laid it all on the Panthers to win the NFC. Payout is $1050.00

Goooooo Panthers!!!!!!

 

[TheKid84]

I had $42 in rakeback at the casino I go to in Vegas good for sports bets. I laid it all on the Panthers to win the NFC. Payout is $1050.00

Goooooo Panthers!!!!!!

LOL love the enthusiasm, but couldn't you have spent the money better elsewhere???

For your sake, I hope they do win. Would be a pretty sick payout.

 

[arahel_jazz]

Wait, are we picking which team will finish last in their division?

Isn't that the definition of a "long shot"? Hope springs eternal... at least until the end of week 2.

 

[vic75]

any sportsbook players got a pick. mine is the vikings. they got there D in shape and seem deep enough to get through the whole season. i expect to see alot of good games this year as alot of teams are coming together at the same time. so who has a long shot

The money line right now for the Vikings too win is 3.00 which is not bad for an upset should be a high scoring game question is can the Lions stop the run if not than the Vikings have a legitimate chance too win one on the road

 

[a true nit]

are we talking week1 or the entire season...if its the whole season you migght want to put money on the bears

 

[millertime]

i would sub the pats for the bengals cause i'm a bengals fan and think they are gonna win i dont like to bet on my team though.

 

[millertime]

what i got so far:

Denver Broncos -½
Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos Over 41
New England Patriots -2
Atlanta Falcons +10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4
Kansas City Chiefs +3
Seattle Seahawks +3½
Minnesota Vikings +12½
Indianapolis Colts -3
Houston Texans +3

Risk
US$ 10.00

To Win
US$ 150.00




2 Team Parlay

Denver Broncos -7
Ravens vs Broncos Over 48 (-115)
$ 20.00US$ 47.30


8 team teaser

$20 to win $180

Broncos -1
Titans +14
Falcons +10
Buccaneers +4
Bengals +10
Colts -3
Vikings +12.5
Giants +10

3 team parlay
$10 to win $55.94
broncos -8
vikings +5.5
Bucs -3

9 team parlay

Pats -9
Bucs -3
Chiefs -4
seahawks -3.5
vikings +5.5
colts -10
texans -4
redskins -3
broncos -7
$3 to win $826.75

Parlay (4 picks)
Denver Broncos -7 (-125) (Bought 0.5 points)
New England Patriots -10 (EVEN)
Seattle Seahawks -3½
Indianapolis Colts -10 (-105)

Risk
US$ 16.05

To Win
US$ 199.31

And the big one:

Parlay (3 picks)
New England Patriots -10 (EVEN) (just changed from -9)
Seattle Seahawks -3½
Indianapolis Colts -10 (-105)

Risk
US$ 200.00

To Win
US$ 1290.91


still have $100 to bet on houston on monday in case it all goes bad

 

[jordanbillie]

In before bust.

 

[TheKid84]

what i got so far:

Denver Broncos -½
Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos Over 41
New England Patriots -2
Atlanta Falcons +10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4
Kansas City Chiefs +3
Seattle Seahawks +3½
Minnesota Vikings +12½
Indianapolis Colts -3
Houston Texans +3

Risk
US$ 10.00

To Win
US$ 150.00

I like this bet. A lot to happen for you to win it, but if you were to ask me about those each individual ones, I would say yea, that'll happen.

2 Team Parlay

Denver Broncos -7
Ravens vs Broncos Over 48 (-115)
$ 20.00US$ 47.30

I can see this happening pretty easily. I like this as well.

8 team teaser

$20 to win $180

Broncos -1
Titans +14
Falcons +10
Buccaneers +4
Bengals +10
Colts -3
Vikings +12.5
Giants +10

The Titans and Bengals games worry me a bit here. I can see Chi, at home, blow out Cincy. One thing that lead me away from betting that game is the possibility of weather - I haven't checked it out. I know they're giving the Titans 14, but it's the Titans. Pitt usually doesn't win by more than 2 td's (happened only once last year), so you should be safe with that. It's just not sitting well with me (prob cause it's the Titans lol)

3 team parlay
$10 to win $55.94
broncos -8
vikings +5.5
Bucs -3

The Viking/DET game here could trip you up. Living in Michigan, I hear a lot about Lions football. They're all go-ho about them this year, but I often remind them they only won 4 games last year. Reggie Bush isn't enough to make that team a .500 team, but they are the best sub-.500 team in my opinion. One thing with them is they don't stop with the points, like college style. If they're up by 10 early, it'd be bad news for the Vikings.

9 team parlay

Pats -9
Bucs -3
Chiefs -4
seahawks -3.5
vikings +5.5
colts -10
texans -4
redskins -3
broncos -7
$3 to win $826.75

Aside from the Lions/Vikings game (as stated already), this looks pretty sexy, especially only $3 to win $800+. I might have to visit Bovada again...

Parlay (4 picks)
Denver Broncos -7 (-125) (Bought 0.5 points)
New England Patriots -10 (EVEN)
Seattle Seahawks -3½
Indianapolis Colts -10 (-105)

Risk
US$ 16.05

To Win
US$ 199.31

I'm not sold on the Colts winning by more than 10. I'm a huge Colts fan, and the start of Terrell Pryer worries me even more. I do think the Colts will win, it's that spread that's tearing me apart. They haven't won by more than 10 points much since the Peyton days (2 of their 11 victories last year).

And the big one:

Parlay (3 picks)
New England Patriots -10 (EVEN) (just changed from -9)
Seattle Seahawks -3½
Indianapolis Colts -10 (-105)

Risk
US$ 200.00

To Win
US$ 1290.91

And for this sake (among rooting for my team to crush their opponents), I really hope the Colts beat that 10 point spread. I think the NE def will have a pick 6 or a special teams TD to really make them cover that. That would indeed be one helluva win for ya man.

Best of luck. I hope my opinions are all wrong and you win them all (unless then contradict with any of my bets of course). Best of luck to ya man!