puzzlefish
Legend
Loyaler
4/7 brings me to 46/84. Resting today.
puzzlefish
Legend
Loyaler
What odds do you usually bet on? I am looking at profitability with a 50% success rate on picks and it looks like anything over 1.0 would result in profit. Seems too good to be true. Even for odds averaging as low as 1.3 that would mean $0.15 profit for every $1 bet. For 1000 bets of $1 each, you would expect $150 profit. (Profit at odds of 1.3 with 50% success rate = 500*1.3*$1 - 500*1*$1). Am I getting that calculation correct?
puzzlefish
Legend
Loyaler
For tonight, April 30, I will do things a bit differently and start employing multiples.
Celtics and Nets win. (Double, 2.41 effective)
Lakers and Kings over 219.5 (Single, 1.61)
Lakers, 76ers, and Wizards all win (Trixie, 1.74 effective)
puzzlefish
Legend
Loyaler
Made that post late at night. Calculation is not correct. For each $1 bet at 1.3 the return would be 0.3*$1 so $0.30. Over a series of 1000 bets at odds of 1.3, Profit = 500*0.30*$1 - 500*1*$1 = -$350 (loss).. so to break even at that rate would require odds at 2.0.
puzzlefish
Legend
Loyaler
Lakers and Celtics ruin the entire night's bets. 0/3
puzzlefish
Legend
Loyaler
May 2
Nets>Bucks @2.2
Betting on Giannis to be out and KD to play.
Kings>Mavericks @3.3
Line is in favour of Mavericks, who have lost against the Kings the last 2 times and are also playing without rest.
Suns - 13.5 > Thunder @1.8
Nets>Bucks @2.2
Betting on Giannis to be out and KD to play.
Kings>Mavericks @3.3
Line is in favour of Mavericks, who have lost against the Kings the last 2 times and are also playing without rest.
Suns - 13.5 > Thunder @1.8
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puzzlefish
Legend
Loyaler
Giannis played. It was close but the Nets lost.
Kings won.
Thunder played better than usual.
1/3, but the 1 was @ 3.3 which was good.
I am watching the Raptors and Lakers. Betting that Raptors can stay within 10.5 of the Lakers and over 226.5.
puzzlefish
Legend
Loyaler
Raptors did very well, bringing the night to 3/5. Lakers look to be in trouble as both LBJ and Davis don't look like they are doing well after their injuries.
May 3
Wiz - 4.5 > Pacers
Pistons > Magic
Pelicans> Warriors
Knicks > Grizzlies
ADRI7HO
On the road...
Bronze Level
puzzlefish
Legend
Loyaler
2/4
May 4
Clippers -9.5 > Raptors, <218.5
Raptors are missing Van Fleet. Clippers are set to have both George and Leonard playing. Not expecting an energetic game.
Warriors > Pelicans
Heat - 3.5 > Mavericks
puzzlefish
Legend
Loyaler
1/4, as Raptors played with Van Fleet so they didn't lose as badly, Pelicans outplayed the Warriors, and the Heat stalled.
For tonight.. I got nothing. Kind of interested in Bucks vs Wizards but nothing standing out for bets.
Edit:
76ers - 13.5 > Rockets
Kings > Pacers, Kings + 6.5 > Pacers
Suns - 1 > Hawks
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puzzlefish
Legend
Loyaler
3/4. Suns had a bizarre cooler of a game. Couldn't seem to connect any shots starting in the third.
Nothing worth betting on yet tomorrow. Maybe the Pacers game vs. the Hawks..
puzzlefish
Legend
Loyaler
1/2, Wizards squeeze by the Raptors. Pacers, despite being riddled with injuries and internal disruption, outplay a healthy Hawks team. This pretty much sums up betting this season. No matter what edge may be present before tip-off, all it takes is either team to run hot or cold to make it all a coin flip.
ribbybruno
Skadoosh!!
Loyaler
Yes - hard finding an edge in some of these games - shows how good the oddsmakers can be