MLB 2022 Betting Thread

[ribbybruno]

Monday July 18th (0-1) -$110 Overall record (28-26) -$504

Saturday July 23rd -

Phillies ML -170 @ Home vs Chicago - Strohman 0-4 in last 4 starts on grass - Cubs are 3-9 in the last 12 meetings

Arizona ML -160 @ Home vs Washington - Nationals are 0-7 in their 7 games vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30

 

[waynaldo009]

Man the Yankees aren't looking as good lately. Hope they add help but don't panic and go for Soto. The Nationals asking price seems way too high for what the Yankees can afford to give up in prospects.

 

[cdntyler87]

+1900 for Manoah to win the AL Cy Young is worth a look

 

[maneger1984]

Moneyline: Mets (-120)
While much of the attention on New York Mets’ rotation is centered around Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco (11-4, 3.79 ERA) has been an unnoticed gem. Carrasco enters this game having not allowed an earned run in any of his previous three starts, spanning 18 2/3 innings. He finished July with a 3-0 record and 0.90 ERA and can use that momentum in this opener against the Atlanta Braves, whom he held scoreless over eight innings in a May 3 home start.

On the other side, Braves starter Kyle Wright (13-4, 2.93 ERA) has had a similarly productive year for Atlanta. Still, he has not been challenged much lately, as eight of his last 11 starts have come against teams under .500.

Wright opposed Carrasco in that May 3 start and did well to allow just three earned runs over seven innings. However, he scattered nine hits, and New York’s lineup is more potent this time around after its trade deadline upgrades.

 

[maneger1984]

Spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+120)
The Boston Red Sox used solid pitching to lead them to an impressive road series win against the Houston Astros. Boston’s offense managed just six total runs over the three games against Houston’s elite pitching, but the Kansas City Royals’ 27th-ranked team ERA (4.72) pales in comparison to the Astros’ second-ranked staff (3.01 ERA). Thus, facing Kris Bubic (2-6, 5.45 ERA) should be a welcomed relief.

Most of the Red Sox’ issues this season have come against AL East opponents, against whom they are just 12-29 this season. However, they have a winning percentage of .631 against all other teams, and I look for Nick Pivetta (8-8, 4.47 ERA) to lead his team to a fourth win in five road starts against teams with a losing record.

 

[ribbybruno]

Saturday July 23rd (1-1) -$80 Overall record (29-27) -$584

Saturday August 6th - Going to bet these teams today. All these teams could be in post season.

NY Mets ML -120
Baltimore ML -160
Minnesota ML +115
St. Louis ML -115
LA Dodgers ML -155

 

[ribbybruno]

Saturday August 6th (5-0) +$515 Overall record (34-27) -$69

Wednesday August 10th -

Baltimore ML +130
Baltimore RL +1.5 -125
Arizona ML -160
LA Dodgers ML -175

 

[RENEY444]

just keep betting against the san diego padres . they always seem to find a way to mess things up .

 

[maneger1984]

Moneyline: Reds (-130)
The Nationals have not gotten a win from a starting pitcher since July 6, a span of 43 games, which is an MLB record for such futility. If anyone is going to break that dubious streak, we do not expect it to be Patrick Corbin (4-17, 6.81 ERA), whose ERA is more than 1.5 runs worse than any other pitcher with at least 100 innings pitched. And while his xERA is slightly better at 6.34, it is still more than one run worse than the next worst starter, Zach Plesac (5.32).

Corbin faces a Reds offense that ranks in the top ten in the league in BABIP (.327), slugging (.420), and wOBA (.321) over the last 14 days. In addition, Reds starter Nick Lodolo (3-4, 4.35) has led the team to seven wins in his previous ten starts, including victories over six teams over .500, and two wins over first-place teams in that span.

Lodolo’s matchup with the Nationals, MLB’s only team yet to reach 20 home wins, should seem like a walk in the park.

 

[maneger1984]

Spread: Blue Jays -1.5 (-108)
Before yesterday’s game against the Angels, the Blue Jays had drastic home and road splits. Toronto was 6-1 with a +20 run differential and averaged 5.43 runs per game in their previous seven road games, but was just 2-5 with a -25 run differential and averaged 2.14 runs per game in their last seven at the Rogers Centre. However, today’s starting pitcher, Ross Stripling (6-3, 2.84) continues to go largely under-the-radar, despite being amid a career-best stretch.

Stripling is 5-2 with a 2.14 ERA in 12 starts since joining the rotation on June 6. Per @SNstats on Twitter, that is his second-lowest ERA over any 12-start stretch of his career. And after his latest start, his 2.14 ERA since June 6 was the fourth-lowest of any American League pitcher in that span.

The Angels are just 2-6 in their last eight road games and are 19-45 in their last 64 games against teams with a winning record, so we are comfortable laying the -1.5 runs here.

 

[maneger1984]

Moneyline: Phillies (-115)
Philadelphia's six runs in Game 1 were the most by a team trailing entering the ninth inning in MLB postseason history. If St. Louis cannot get over the mental hurdle of being two outs away from going up 1-0 in this series, its season will end Saturday.

Like Zack Wheeler on Friday, Aaron Nola (11-13, 3.25 ERA) is the perfect hard-throwing right-handed kryptonite that has done St. Louis in of late. The Cardinals rank 20th in wRC+, 22nd in wOBA, and 24th in slugging against right-handed pitching since the start of September.

St. Louis has gotten next to nothing power-wise from likely MVP Paul Goldschmidt of late, who enters this game without a home run in 22 consecutive games. And if you are concerned about Philadelphia's bullpen late in games, take solace in the fact that Nola ranked second in the league in innings pitched.

 

[maneger1984]

Spread: Padres +1.5 (-150)
It is fair to wonder if the wind went out of New York's sails after becoming just the fourth team ever to blow a 10.5-game lead in a pennant or division race.

The Mets are forced to start Jacob deGrom after losing Game 1, as their original plan was not to use him at all this round, if possible. DeGrom left his last start with a blister issue, and it is anyone's guess how that will affect him in this outing. Meanwhile, San Diego came into Friday's opener with an NL-best .168 OBA since Sept. 1 and now trot out Blake Snell (8-10, 3.38), who ended the regular season with a 1.76 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in his final seven starts.

New York went 1-3 in deGrom's final four regular-season starts and is overvalued in this game.

 

[maneger1984]

Total: Rays-Guardians F5 Under 3 (-130)
The Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians combined for just three runs on two swings Friday. The fact that all the runs came via home run is ironic, as neither team hit for considerable power in the regular season, especially the Guardians, who ranked 29th out of 30 teams in home runs. Cleveland was an offensively challenged team overall in the regular season. Steven Kwan, Amed Rosario, Myles Straw, and Jose Ramirez were the only Guardians with more than 66 runs scored this season.

The Guardians now face Tampa Bay's Tyler Glasnow (0-0, 1.35), who made one of his two starts against Cleveland this year. After holding them to one run over three innings, Glasnow has held current Guardians to a .150 OBA and a paltry .287 wOBA. On the other side, Triston McKenzie (11-11, 2.96) pitched to a 2.27 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over his final seven starts. Rays hitters are slugging just .238 in 45 combined plate appearances against McKenzie, and the Under has cashed in his two previous career starts against Tampa Bay.

Take the relievers out of the equation and cash this generous number, as it would take four runs early to lose this wager.

 

[skaterick]

i cant believe the San Diego Padres may take the NY Mets out of the playoffs !

 

[ribbybruno]

Go Phillies!

 

[alabos]

My bet for the world series i put final brave against astros against this year....

 

[ADRI7HO]

This thread has stopped, but for today's game (as a kibitzer) I think the Phillies win again (maybe ).

 

[ADRI7HO]

This thread has stopped, but for today's game (as a kibitzer) I think the Phillies win again (maybe ).

That was a good thought.
The Phillies won that game 7-0.

 

[Nusya]

The Phillies were unable to oppose Houston serious resistance. I am glad that the series has not ended after five games.