College Basketball Thread 2019/2020 Season

[ribbybruno]

Post anything related to College Basketball. Post bets, leans, parlays, info, tidbits, analysis, stories or March Madness hype!

 

[ribbybruno]

I have been betting on college hoops but hadn't started this thread yet. This is my overall progress so far -

11/23/19 UMass (+15.5) vs Virginia - Lost by 12 - Winner
" Memphis (-4) vs Ole Miss - Won by 1 - Loser
11/25/19 VTech (+13.5) vs Mich. St. - Won by 5 - Winner
" Kent St. (+16.5) vs Ohio St - Lost by 19 - Loser
11/26/19 Richmond (+9.5) vs Auburn - Lost by 14 - Loser
" BYU (+11) vs Kansas - Lost by 15 - Loser
" Clemson (+4.5) vs Colorado - Lost by 4 - Winner
" VTech (+4) vs Dayton - Lost by 27 - Loser
" N. Iowa (+6) vs W Virg. - Lost by 5 - Winner
" Stanford (+3.5) vs Butler - Lost by 1 - Winner
11/28/19 Michigan (+3.5) vs NC - Won by 9 - Winner
11/29/19 Michigan (+4.5) vs Gonzaga - Won by 18 - Winner
" Depaul (+4) vs Minnesota - Won by 5 - Winner
" UAB (+21) vs Kentucky - Lost by 11 - Winner
" VCU (+2.5) vs Purdue - Lost by 3 - Loser
" Okla. St. (+1) vs Ole Miss - Won by 41 - Winner
" Utah St (+3) vs St. Marys - Lost by 8 - Loser
" Hawaii (+4) vs USF Dons - Won by 10 - Winner
12/3/19 Iowa (+4.5) vs Syracuse - Won by 14 - Winner
" Michigan (+6) vs Louisville - Lost by 15 - Loser
" Memphis (-12.5) vs Bradley - Won by 15 - Winner
" Indiana (-1.5) vs Fla. St. - Won by 16 - Winner
" Duke (+6.5) vs Mich.St - Won by 12 - Winner
" USF Dons (+1) vs Ariz. St - Lost by 4 - Loser
12/5/19 Auburn (-12) vs Furman - Won by 3 - Loser

Overall (15-10) +$500/ +5.0 Units

 

[Becky Eubanks]

I hope our Razorbacks keep it up 8-0 WPS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[ribbybruno]

Picked these for today - Let's Gooo!

V Tech (+7) @ Home vs Duke - Hokies will play tough at home and cover - good dog - Blue Devils not the juggernaut this year

C. Mich (-9.5) @ Home vs UT Martin - Chippewas avg 20 more points a game then the Skyhawks

Pittsburgh is at Louisville today but I haven't seen Panthers yet - catching 12 ??

 

[Synopsis]

Has been pretty unpredictable on the whole this year. I've not had many ncaab bets. I'm working on a system for it on the side, but to be honest outside of that, I've not been capping much ncaab.

 

[ribbybruno]

Has been pretty unpredictable on the whole this year. I've not had many ncaab bets. I'm working on a system for it on the side, but to be honest outside of that, I've not been capping much ncaab.

I enjoy trying to bet games and preparing for March Madness. One day I will pick a perfect bracket.

 

[ribbybruno]

Friday (0-2) -$200/ -2.0 Units Overall (15-12) +$300/ +3.0 Units


Recap - Duke blasted VT in 2nd half (0-1) and Chippewas missed mark by 1/2 point (0-1)


Saturday -


St. Johns (+4) @ Home vs West Virginia - Always like a Big East dog that's pretty decent


Santa Clara (-5) @ Home vs California - Broncos 8-0 at home - Bears average only 10 assists a game


UAB (+7.5) @ Home vs Memphis - Blazers a good home town dog - see how strong Tigers are on the road


1 Unit each - $100

 

[ribbybruno]

Saturday (2-1) +$100/ +1.0 Units Overall (17-13) +$300/ +3.0 Units


Recap - St. Johns as a dog wins at home (1-0), Santa Clara rips Cal (1-0) and UAB miss covering by 1/2 point (0-1)

Tuesday-

N. Iowa (+8.5) @ Colorado - Stats pretty close - each team only 1 loss apiece


1 Unit each - $100

 

[Synopsis]

I like Louisville -6
Simply better on both sides of the ball. Texas Tech hasn't exactly been putting up points and Louisville have been clamping down on people. Bad combo for Texas tech.

 

[Synopsis]

Louisville -3.5 second half. Close game, and they aren't playing so well on offence. I'll gamble that they turn it around second half

 

[Synopsis]

I'm going to try to get out of these with Texas Tech -6.5. They are up 10, but the line has been favored for a Louisville run for a while, yet they have done nothing. Now that I bet this, Louisville will probably end the game on a big run where I lose all the bets. This is why I dont bet college that often, I can cap a game into the dirt, but the teams will seemingly change traits with each other. I'm just very unlucky with college bb

 

[ribbybruno]

I'm going to try to get out of these with Texas Tech -6.5. They are up 10, but the line has been favored for a Louisville run for a while, yet they have done nothing. Now that I bet this, Louisville will probably end the game on a big run where I lose all the bets. This is why I dont bet college that often, I can cap a game into the dirt, but the teams will seemingly change traits with each other. I'm just very unlucky with college bb

I don't know how you keep up with all that going on. I just bet the game final outcome of games. I barely have time to do that. lol College basketball is no different than college football with some schools being elite all the time. Stick with winning programs! Last night I bet N. Iowa because of their history more than anything else. Always close to NCAA bid every year. The numbers were close to Colorado's last night as well. I knew the Panthers would at least play hard. Sure enough - got the win from playing all the way through

 

[ribbybruno]

Tuesday (1-0) +$100/ +1.0 Units Overall (18-13) +$500/ +5.0 Units

Recap - Panthers play tough and beat Buffaloes on the road (1-0)

Wednesday-

Arkansas St. (+9.5) @ Missouri State - Stats real close here - going to fire at the dog

1 Unit each - $100

 

[Synopsis]

Wasn't that hard to juggle last night. It was the only bets I had on the day. No football, and I didn't bet nba.

A lot of my betting isn't just based on my cap of the game, it's also based on projected numbers and probabilities of being able to get out of the bets. Buying out is the same as a win due to tax reasons. You bet, and buy out, you get credited the "lost" bet as business cost, and the buy out counts on the bottom line. Theoretically you could bet a game, and buy out immediately as the game starts, and you could make a living off of it. Say if you got everything at the typical -110, and at the end of the year you "won" 100k, but lost 110k, just by purposely buying out. On paper you lost 10k, but 100k of the 110k is deductible as a business tax. I'm not sure how much profit that would bring because I don't do that, but by losing 10k over that year, you would have made a solid bit. I like to buy out because my "losses" aren't close to my winnings, so I'll have substantially less that I can claim. In those terms, I'm actually losing implied money by being successful, so I buy out whenever I can, or at least I would like to. I let things ride more often than not.

In college football it gets hectic, but I'm used to being able to watch a ton of games all all once, and I have my computer set up with all my books with live betting open. It looks like a mini nasa headquarters haha... it's a job, one that requires a lot of time, but it gives a lot of free time too as I only really work half a year, and during that time I can take any day I want off. I bet all year, but really football is my "job". I make money on basketball, but it's secondary, and I'll bet things occasionally throughout the year, but its casual.

Last night for instance, I feel I capped that game correctly, but I didn't bet it solely on my cap. I also bet it knowing the line would be weighted on louisville, which it was. Even after I bet the 6.5, that line only went between 5.5 and 8.5, even though it stayed a double digit game. I think I've mentioned it before, but that's something I see a relatively safe free bet. It wins, or you get out with 1x credit, whIle only spending 0.1x for it. It's a win from both angles.

You should try it. You're a knowledgeable guy, you would probably make a third more money a year by doing it. Professional bettors for the most part only get 6 to 8 roi, and that's the "good" professionals. That's how they make a living off only getting that small return. I'm lucky enough to be in a different boat, I have a stupid high roi, on 3 different sports, which is great, but my taxes won't be as nice because of the lack of loss.

Try it on games you know you're going to watch. Bet the game even if you weren't going to, then try to get out of it if it's going bad. It's a skill in itself to be able to do it consistently, and also, at least for me, it's a pride thing. How many times this year have you seen me say something like "I could have got out of it, but I let it go". I simply do not like to admit defeat sometimes.

As for ncaab, I know it, but something in the stars happens often when it bet it. Last night for example, the teams completely played opposite of one another, out of the blue. Or how about that week it had the teaser with duke, and they lost at home to Stephen f. Austin. Just a lot of weird things happen to things I bet in ncaab. I do have a system, that requires no real research, no real knowledge of the teams, or even sport for that matter. I've been working on it for 3 or 4 years, and it works. It worked as soon as it thought of it, but it's selective. You may have 2 or 3 bets as week. I may start doing it more since the break in college football. College football is and will always be my number 1 priority.

I don't know how you keep up with all that going on. I just bet the game final outcome of games. I barely have time to do that. lol College basketball is no different than college football with some schools being elite all the time. Stick with winning programs! Last night I bet N. Iowa because of their history more than anything else. Always close to NCAA bid every year. The numbers were close to Colorado's last night as well. I knew the Panthers would at least play hard. Sure enough - got the win from playing all the way through

 

[Synopsis]

OK here is one. Michigan +1.5
Line has flipped on this game, people all over Illinois probably because how they played maryland. Michigan has played some tough games, so they are a tested team so going to Illinois, which tend to have good crowd support, shouldn't be a factor. It's close on both sides, but Michigan gets the check mark in just about every catagory. I think defensively, Michigan is a bit better than the gap between these teams stats indicate and that should get them the tough away win.

 

[Synopsis]

And they lost large. I'm glad I don't bet this as large as football. I'd go broke.

 

[Synopsis]

Iowa +5
I think these teams are damn near twins. Iowa has faired better against common opponents, and is ranked higher than Iowa state as well. Not sure why this isn't a pk game. Given its close to a coin flip I'll take the points. That said, everyone should bet the other side because it's likely free money since I'm on Iowa haha.

Austin Peavy looks intriguing for +15. Wv haven't covered dd lines at all, and Peavy at least put up points. It's interesting that this isn't more like 10 or 11 points. Akron stayed within 10 and they were bigger dogs. A few others that slip my mind all the moment all to so covered easy all tasks big dogs against wv. Their of fence just isn't in top shape.

 

[ribbybruno]

Wasn't that hard to juggle last night. It was the only bets I had on the day. No football, and I didn't bet nba.

A lot of my betting isn't just based on my cap of the game, it's also based on projected numbers and probabilities of being able to get out of the bets. Buying out is the same as a win due to tax reasons. You bet, and buy out, you get credited the "lost" bet as business cost, and the buy out counts on the bottom line. Theoretically you could bet a game, and buy out immediately as the game starts, and you could make a living off of it. Say if you got everything at the typical -110, and at the end of the year you "won" 100k, but lost 110k, just by purposely buying out. On paper you lost 10k, but 100k of the 110k is deductible as a business tax. I'm not sure how much profit that would bring because I don't do that, but by losing 10k over that year, you would have made a solid bit. I like to buy out because my "losses" aren't close to my winnings, so I'll have substantially less that I can claim. In those terms, I'm actually losing implied money by being successful, so I buy out whenever I can, or at least I would like to. I let things ride more often than not.

In college football it gets hectic, but I'm used to being able to watch a ton of games all all once, and I have my computer set up with all my books with live betting open. It looks like a mini nasa headquarters haha... it's a job, one that requires a lot of time, but it gives a lot of free time too as I only really work half a year, and during that time I can take any day I want off. I bet all year, but really football is my "job". I make money on basketball, but it's secondary, and I'll bet things occasionally throughout the year, but its casual.

Last night for instance, I feel I capped that game correctly, but I didn't bet it solely on my cap. I also bet it knowing the line would be weighted on louisville, which it was. Even after I bet the 6.5, that line only went between 5.5 and 8.5, even though it stayed a double digit game. I think I've mentioned it before, but that's something I see a relatively safe free bet. It wins, or you get out with 1x credit, whIle only spending 0.1x for it. It's a win from both angles.

You should try it. You're a knowledgeable guy, you would probably make a third more money a year by doing it. Professional bettors for the most part only get 6 to 8 roi, and that's the "good" professionals. That's how they make a living off only getting that small return. I'm lucky enough to be in a different boat, I have a stupid high roi, on 3 different sports, which is great, but my taxes won't be as nice because of the lack of loss.

Try it on games you know you're going to watch. Bet the game even if you weren't going to, then try to get out of it if it's going bad. It's a skill in itself to be able to do it consistently, and also, at least for me, it's a pride thing. How many times this year have you seen me say something like "I could have got out of it, but I let it go". I simply do not like to admit defeat sometimes.

As for ncaab, I know it, but something in the stars happens often when it bet it. Last night for example, the teams completely played opposite of one another, out of the blue. Or how about that week it had the teaser with duke, and they lost at home to Stephen f. Austin. Just a lot of weird things happen to things I bet in ncaab. I do have a system, that requires no real research, no real knowledge of the teams, or even sport for that matter. I've been working on it for 3 or 4 years, and it works. It worked as soon as it thought of it, but it's selective. You may have 2 or 3 bets as week. I may start doing it more since the break in college football. College football is and will always be my number 1 priority.

I have never tried the Live betting. You seem to do very well. Impressed with all the action you keep up with. I guess if I didn't work and play poker all the time I could too. You need a protege I have been pondering giving up work and becoming a full time gambler. Poker and sports betting. I could handle that!!

Betting College Basketball can be a little erratic. Sticking with a few games a week to see how you do is smart. Tread one game at a time.

 

[ribbybruno]

Iowa +5
I think these teams are damn near twins. Iowa has faired better against common opponents, and is ranked higher than Iowa state as well. Not sure why this isn't a pk game. Given its close to a coin flip I'll take the points. That said, everyone should bet the other side because it's likely free money since I'm on Iowa haha.

Austin Peavy looks intriguing for +15. Wv haven't covered dd lines at all, and Peavy at least put up points. It's interesting that this isn't more like 10 or 11 points. Akron stayed within 10 and they were bigger dogs. A few others that slip my mind all the moment all to so covered easy all tasks big dogs against wv. Their of fence just isn't in top shape.

Iowa is on trend to lose tonight according to their past games. Cyclones are 5-0 @ home
Stats are real close except blocks and steals going Cyclones way.

 

[Synopsis]

They are looking pretty good at the half.

I'm glad I didn't bet that wv game, I just saw the score on that one. That's exactly why I do so little in ncaab, teams turn almost every time I put money on a game. Peavy all of a sudden can't shoot, and wv all of a sudden is shooting lights out and playing d. It's not due to the opponents level of play either, as wv consistently have not trashed the multiple dd dogs they have had so far. That's why I didn't bet it, and I doubt I'll even make 5 bets a week in ncaab. I bet them low anyway outside of the system plays. I figure if I took it more serious I could at least be semi OK at it over time, but to be honest, as much anyways I like basketball, college just turns me off man. Only time I really enjoy it is march madness, and that's usually if there is anyways big underdog making a run.

About the job thing, you could try maybe doing games that are ideal times for you for practice. Bet them larger than Normal and watch them either the intention of maximizing the money, or minimizing the loss. Hell, sometimes I'll bet a game and second half and both lose, yet I got 4-2, 5-2 on the game. I feel I cap games correctly, so when it doesn't play out like it should, I can cap it again right then and either get value lines, or a lower line on a winning dog. It's not as easy to do because you are under the pressure of time, and you have to make the choices quickly but with knowledge. That's probably why most who "live" bet only do halfs. That's not really live betting to me, it's more like a bet on something that you have in time information for, and that gives a ton of value if you find the spots.

Iowa is on trend to lose tonight according to their past games. Cyclones are 5-0 @ home
Stats are real close except blocks and steals going Cyclones way.

 

[Synopsis]

Well they covered easy, but I should have bet them second half too. Might be a confidence thing. I learned my style of betting by doing mostly college football, so that bleed over to nfl, and to some degree the nba, but I've never done volume in ncaab. Maybe that's it, I'm just in my own head about it.

 

[ribbybruno]

Iowa sure got rid of that Iowa St. streak at home last night. This was good pick!

 

[Synopsis]

I was talking to someone last night about this. I came to the realization that I'm good with dogs in college. Maybe that's my issue. My betting style is composed mostly of favorites (you can't bet favorites only and win over time is a misconception) that I feel aren't laying as much as they should. Perhaps in college, the way my mind works, maybe I'm the opposite where I pick dogs that I feel are getting too much? Maybe I'll bet more volume and compare my win ratio of dogs and favorites and see if there is anything there.

 

[ribbybruno]

I was talking to someone last night about this. I came to the realization that I'm good with dogs in college. Maybe that's my issue. My betting style is composed mostly of favorites (you can't bet favorites only and win over time is a misconception) that I feel aren't laying as much as they should. Perhaps in college, the way my mind works, maybe I'm the opposite where I pick dogs that I feel are getting too much? Maybe I'll bet more volume and compare my win ratio of dogs and favorites and see if there is anything there.

A good mixture has brought huge success for me over 30 years of betting. Some spreads are good for dogs and some are good for favorites. You must compare the teams numbers to really see what is going on. Add injuries and other variables (Home team, streaks and trends)
Try not to bet on teams you root for and leave your heart out of it. I tend to do this with the Houston Rockets lol
Love to see how your numbers compare after awhile of data compiling.

 

[ribbybruno]

Wednesday (0-1) -$100/ -1.0 Units Overall (18-14) +$400/ +4.0 Units

Recap - Missouri St. whips Arkansas St by 20 (0-1)
Saturday-
Oregon/Michigan line real close - kind of like both teams - abstain

Memphis (+7) @ Tennessee - Good battle here! Stats are real close but favor Tigers

Santa Clara (-7) @ Home vs Sacramento St. - Broncos pretty good averaging 78 a game - Hornets 67 a game

Gonzaga/Arizona identical in stats - abstain lol could be a last second shot to win - heart attack game

1 Unit each - $100