Betting on the US Presidential Election

[ChickenArise]

CURRENT odds
TRUMP - BIDEN
PINNACLE : +167 -190
5 DIMES: +155 -175

I posted this a couple days ago but the thread got wiped by the Cards Chat Hacker or Hunter Bidens people. Okay that might be a stretch but the thread was lost.

The odds have been shifting rapidly since the NY Post story on Hunter Biden broke but there was a decent amount of hours to react before this was reflected in the odds.

I am reposting this thread here because the Sports section is more where we talk about betting. This is all about betting the US Presidential Election and how to maximize your chances of selecting the winner and making a profit. This is also a place to discuss your wagers and wagering strategy. It is not the place to post your opinion or rant about either candidate.

The following is a 2 hour video presented by a college football analyst who is a statistician and works in media and describes the intent of media polls versus the reality of the chances of the candidates. According to him we have a similar scenario brewing as we did in 2016 where media was reporting a landslide victory for Hillary Clinton.

In 2016 he went 8 for 8 on states won by Trump.

If you are betting on the US Election this video is highly recommended.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFVxMm42ZYc?t=308
Disclosure:
I currently hold positions on:
Trump to win at odds between +160 and +189
Trump to win Georgia -160
Trump to win Florida +110

 

[gazdagleszek]

My opinion

Trump will win, I think.

 

[Hanosch]

Wow I had no idea it is possible to bet on such things.
Now I m kind pf asking myself what else might be possible than. :idea:

 

[TerryBLE]

Wow I had no idea it is possible to bet on such things.
Now I m kind pf asking myself what else might be possible than. :idea:

You can throw a pebble high and bet where it will fall, is at that level currently

 

[TerryBLE]

They tricked me last time, no more, Trump wins.

 

[partz]

Im not from America but you guys dont have a better alternative i think )
trupm is a cool guy, he did some smart moves id say but ofc all i know is based on what media tells me and seeing some interviews with him, he looks like a nice fella, smart and a badass dude also. you guys should not complain about him, my president cant talk without a prompter, hes like a broken toy lol

 

[terryk]

I'll take the over,,,, :girl:

 

[ChickenArise]

Odds morning after second debate

Pinnacle

Biden -209
Trump +180

5 Dimes

Biden -185
Trump +160

 

[36yankees]

I’ll take Trump to win at +180
Also I think he wins Florida,Georgia and North Carolina

 

[99TERRANCE99]

Don’t be shocked if trump wins again ,Russia will likely get involved in someway like the first time to help him win

 

[bigplayer]

Trump wins easy. This is a no brainier and look at bidens eyes something doesn't look right. Too much damaging information on his son this sways votes in the electoral states.

The topic should be do votes actually count?

 

[ChickenArise]

Biden ahead in polls? Lets analyze voter registration

Biden ahead in polls? Lets analyze voter registration

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-10-23/11th-hour-deep-analysis-us-elections-alternative-data-view

 

[Luvepoker]

I personally see no doubt to who is going to win this election. It may not be as big of a win as last time but there is no doubt in my mind Trump win this election. I also believe he will lose the popular vote big time as well and by a bigger amount. I am guessing he will love that way by over 5 million this time.

 

[ChickenArise]

The only thing keeping me from placing large bets on this election is I believe there are plans on a grand scale to cheat. Also who determines the winner of the bet? Is it who mainstream media announces as the winner or the actual winner.

You will have to inquire as each book may have different rules. This election is not likely to go smoothly.

Just a day ago Trump was +187 at Pinnacle, today Trump is +168 (at this edit +174 highly volatile).

At 5Dimes Trump is currently +165 where you might see a daily change at the most.

 

[ChickenArise]

ALERT Trump +190

ALERT Trump +190 at Pinnacle right now. I increased my position.

 

[Tero]

Finnish poker pro makes a six figure bet against Trump's re-election

Seasoned 53 year old Finnish poker veteran Aki Pyysing has a strong belief for Joe Biden's ability to win the upcoming election. According to Finnish financial newspaper Kauppalehti Pyysing has made a bet of 95 000 euros for Biden to receive more votes than Trump, and a 65 000 euro bet for Biden to actually win the election. Pyysing is also considering to bet even more for Biden's win.

Age might have made Pyysing more cautious since he is saying that if he were twenty years younger he would bet on this much much heavier than he is now.

 

[ChickenArise]

Eve of the Election odds update

Eve of the Election odds update (Pinnacle.com)

 

[Jackmagic]

How long will you have to wait to get paid off? especially if Trump loses. Trump says he doesn't trust the mail-in votes. So now he'll have the office of the president hanging up in the courts like he does all his businesses

 

[okeedokalee]

Biden will win Florida. Trump's will to let old people die will ensure that.
My prediction is Biden wins presidency. This is a Covid election.
Those concerned with their health are the early voters and they will outnumber Trump's religious nutters.

 

[suitedsadness]

Personally, I wouldn't touch these bets with a bargepole. Biden seems to have the edge for the majority, but the electoral college's influence is too large an unknown for me. It's not like it matters who wins though, because the only person who seemed to care about legalising online poker ( Andrew Yang) is not in the race anymore.

 

[we will rock you]

i love betting on the is election i got plus money on trump but it was a free bet so i cant lose

 

[ChickenArise]

Excellent Question

How long will you have to wait to get paid off? especially if Trump loses. Trump says he doesn't trust the mail-in votes. So now he'll have the office of the president hanging up in the courts like he does all his businesses

This is a great question. I didnt have the answer so I inquired at Pinnacle. I posted their rules below. Keep in mind other books have other rules. I believe 5 dimes will go off of what is declared by Media.

Edit: I inserted the wrong picture. Trying to correct below.
Edit: I dont think this is working. will make a new post.

 

[Risto234]

I believe i saw some news like someone from England put 5 million on Trump to win lol ...

 

[ChickenArise]

Election rules for betting at Pinnacle

Election rules for betting at Pinnacle


See rules https://www.pinnacle.com/en/future/betting-rules#Politics
Politics

• All bets will be determined using the official result as declared by the local Electoral Commission or a similar official body.
• Spanish Politics: For the purposes of the general election, PSOE and PP will be understood as the parties and their regional affiliates (e.g. PSC-PSOE).
• Canadian Politics: For the purposes of the federal election, the following colloquialisms apply:
  • Conservatives refers to the Conservative Party of Canada.
  • Liberals refers to the Liberal Party of Canada.
  • NDP refers to the New Democratic Party.
  • Greens refers to the Green Party of Canada.
  • Bloc refers to the Bloc Quebecois.
• If we provide a stipulation that a candidate "must announce", that means there will only be action if that candidate officially announces he will run for that office.
• For all elections, bets will be graded upon an official result as described above. Once the result is official and bets are graded, any circumstance (death, illness, etc.) will have no bearing on the already graded bets.
• For all 2020 USA Presidential election bets made on or after 3/17/20, both Donald Trump and Joe Biden must be viable nominees for their respective parties on election day, in order to have action.​

 

[gabryyyel31]

Like in the past elections when Hillary Clinton was the bookmakers favorite, it happens again against Biden, so I will bet on underdog Trump to win again. It is a good odd.