POT/HAND ODDS HELP

[xdmanx007]

XD, I agree. And was incorrect in how I worded my replies. However, it is so widely used in the incorrect manner in which I explained it, that it has basically taken on that meaning. How many times do they use expectation in the right place when someone at a final table goes into the tank? Commentators and announcers say something to the effect that they are calculating their pot or implied odds, not figuring their expectation. You are correct, but you would know what I meant instantly if I said to you, "I called because I was getting the right odds."

Yup I sure would! As someone witha title I don't have that luxury though

 

[twizzybop]

Understood Jesus,

I tried not to make that a loaded question but it came out that way. It was only supposed to be hypothetical.

The 35% down to the river is of course on the flop. However the 2:1 was supposed to be pre-flop. Someone calls all-in per example of 1000 and that is all the chips they have and you call all-in with your 1000 cause that is all you have. The call is now 2:1 for the flush draw. Actually less than that, however with say the A(X) suited. You have #1 a 30% that an Ace comes on the flop, takes away from the flush draw question.

As for 35% that is roughly 3.5:1 or 1:3.5 sorry got it backwards.. so it should be 1:2.. my mistake.

 

[Bill_Hollorian]

Wow, Ok I gotta chime in. The "rule of 4" is a quick calculation with 2 cards to come. It does not consider that there may be two bets to call, or more. You must adjust the rule of 4 against reverse odds. Or the amount you will have to call on both streets. There for the rule of 4 is accurate if you are calculating whether to call an All-in bet on the flop, because if you or them are all in ther is no more betting on future streets. However, if neither of you are all-in, you will have to call a bet if you miss your card on the turn. It also has a tough time including "d-outs" But in a clutch it gives you a quick idea of where you are at.
If you are on a flush draw, and getting just the right odds, to call using the rule of 4, remeber to also calculate what it will cost if you miss your card on the turn. This can sometimes turn a call into a fold. In limit holdem the street is more expensive, sometimes you will find you can call the flop bet, but not the turn bet. This can turn the rule of 4 negative on you.

Bill

 

[IrishDave]

Damn, what ever happened to instincts? I'm an accountant and I play poker for fun. If you ever see me carry a calculator to the table - shoot me quick. Not to say that I don't give this an analytical look, I just don't go through the quadratic equations to get there. Example, I have a 4 flush after the flop:

If the call is reasonable, I'll call, if not I'll fold. Now if I could only define reasonable...

 

[Bill_Hollorian]

Actually, this very situation is currently taking place at www.pokerprosvsearth.com
We have a 2c,4c with a flop of 2d,Qc,5c. Very interesting. Mark has bet $500 into a $750 pot. I have voted to call. If we miss on the turn, we may have to dump the hand. Remember this is a study in heads up play, this hand is not even playable at a full table. This situation does show, that in the "rule of 4" you must consider future betting rounds.

 

[twizzybop]

I would actually raise.. $750 in the pot.. 500 to call would put me at $1250 basically a little over 2:1 to call. We are at least putting him QX or Paint cards. So raising it another $500 would make the call almost worth it but yet the pot odds wouldn't make it worth it to call so a fold would be in obmission here. Because #1 If he had pair the Queen, we have to raise at least for proper odds. What would happen though if he is on a stronger flush draw then we are??? A pair of 2's we also have making it the lowest pair on the board.

Simple fold cause you have enough chips not to worry about folding here. Live another hand to fight.

 

[Bill_Hollorian]

I see your point. Combining the possibility that he is on a better flush, a fold is appropriate. I don't see him betting a flush for $500. That's why I like the call.

They are beating me up over there.
You have to admit though, that it exactly demonstrates what this thread is all about. It's like you said, facing a bet on the turn may weigh the argument for folding. I still say it is a defensive bet. Mark wants to take this pot down right now. I still vote for a call. Plus there is implied odds, we can take the worst of it if we can get him to call a decent bet if we hit the flush. Of course, his bet is trying to find out if we are on a flush draw.

Bill

Bill

 

[twizzybop]

Now the turn came I noticed. This would be tough cause there was a call on the flop. I would still have him on QX meaning that he has high 2 pair and the possibility of the higher flush. One could check-raise here for a bluff making it seem you got 3 5's. That is probably what I would do. Yet what if he doesn't bet and checks along with you??
Not impossible for him to do but wouldn't make much sense accept to get a free card for him. I'd still go with the check-raise and make him think what I may have.

I'd

 

[Bill_Hollorian]

I voted for a a bet of 75% of the pot. It gives us 2 ways to win. They are slamming me over there. I like the check raise, actually a few guys that I respect over there are writing about it. Did you vote to check?

Bill

 

[twizzybop]

Not that time I didn't vote. I did however just voted to raise the bet of 1500 to 3000. It is early meaning the blinds are low and losing half my stack of chips wouldn't hurt to much. Yet it does mean I would have to tighten up a bit more. Yet of course it is heads up. I definatly wouldn't put him on 3 5's though. I would certainly have him on the QX and/or higher flush draw.

However again since the blinds are low, one can fold to fight another hand. Chips would be even on a fold. Why bother to win big right now on a very marginal hand that can be beat.