What will you choose?

[john_entony]

Let's imagine you are playing a major online tournament. For example, the Sunday Million. Bubble. Your stack is over 20 big blinds.

First situation: you have "AA" on the big blind and the chip leader in front of you goes all-in.

Second situation: you and 3 other players (all with stacks at least as big as yours) go all-in on pre-flop (3 players have a cooler and chip leader with “74”). You have a 60% chance of winning on the turn.

So, I propose you to choose from these 2 situations. Which one will you choose and why?

 

[Dejange]

Assuming that in the Second situation I am holding pocket AA, too: going AI in both situations.

Would consider folding pocket AA only when in Bubble for Equally valued Satty tickets.

 

[bablovod]

I chose the second option, it's better to get more. I don't think that I or anyone else will give up a pair of aces in preflop, and the chances of winning three are quite high, but slightly less than fighting against one opponent who also has his own chances.

 

[john_entony]

Assuming that in the Second situation I am holding pocket AA, too: going AI in both situations.

Would consider folding pocket AA only when in Bubble for Equally valued Satty tickets.

Thanks for the reply, Dejan! Not necessarily will be "AA" in the second situation. I had "86" in a tournament today and on the turn I had 60% to win against 3 players, but I lost on the river. It's a bubble after all, and prize money starts at an amount that is identical or slightly more than the buy-in.

 

[Station_Master]

60% chance to quadruple my stack. No contest

 

[BillyR23]

major online tournament. For example, the Sunday Million. Bubble. Your stack is over 20 big blinds.

I play this 'major' games mostly if I satellite into it, so min cash looks pretty good and 20BBs is a stack that guarantees the ITM finish(we are on the Bubble in this situation...); so I'd really hate to play a multiway pot with Aces at this point(I'm never folding AA preflop lol and vs. 3 players it's pretty much a flip and our chances to win go lower if we add more opponents...), that's why I've voted for the 1st situation- call with "AA" on big blind versus 1 player...

GLGL all at the tables!

 

[john_entony]

I play this 'major' games mostly if I satellite into it, so min cash looks pretty good and 20BBs is a stack that guarantees the ITM finish(we are on the Bubble in this situation...); so I'd really hate to play a multiway pot with Aces at this point(I'm never folding AA preflop lol and vs. 3 players it's pretty much a flip and our chances to win go lower if we add more opponents...), that's why I've voted for the 1st situation- call with "AA" on big blind versus 1 player...

GLGL all at the tables!

Great analysis, Billy! As always!

You convinced me to vote for the first situation too, as I also only play big tournaments via satellites.

 

[Poker Orifice]

60% chance to quadruple my stack. No contest

this ^

 

[Rachidao]

Second one for me, a big stack at this stage is money for sure.

 

[Newzooozooo]

Hi
It all depends on what kind of tournament we're talking about. What stage of the tournament and what the structure is, whether there are bounties or not. You understand that one option will be more profitable to choose if the tournament has bounties and another option will be more profitable to choose if the tournament is without bounties.

 

[hardongear]

"Play against 3 players with 60% win rate"
Being the chip leader or having a big stack just makes an MTT so much easier once you're inside the money. I just scored a deep final table run worth over $600 because my AA held four times in the MTT with 2 guys already all-in in front of me when I got AA. You gotta win a lot of flips/hands to make a final table and you gotta win max chips with your best hands as well.

My goal is always to win the MTT that means always taking the "3 players with 60% win rate." A min cash looks nice for the stats but really does nothing for me or my bankroll in the long run. A couple deep runs a year because you got it in good against 2-3 players all-in when you had AA makes for a overall pretty profitable year for most hobby/rec players that aren't grinding 100's of MTT's. Hell my 1 deep run as of now likely makes 2024 I pretty profitable year for only playing 20 MTT's so far. I might end up playing a total of 50 MTT's.

The fact is the Sunday Million changes nothing for me.

Cheers!!!

 

[john_entony]

Hi
It all depends on what kind of tournament we're talking about. What stage of the tournament and what the structure is, whether there are bounties or not. You understand that one option will be more profitable to choose if the tournament has bounties and another option will be more profitable to choose if the tournament is without bounties.

Hi, thanks for the comment, it's the Sunday Million, without knockout awards, tournament stage is babble. The prize area starts with prize money just over the buy-in price.

 

[ninocabral]

I would play with 3 players in a more aggressive way, especially since I'm on the bubble and there's no way I'm going to fold a pair of AA, unless the flop turns and I analyze the hand, I won't fold if it comes to the river and I see what am I losing then I fold calmly

 

[bablovod]

This is a situation in which AA couldn't kill anyone; it's certainly not a bubble at all or a big tournament, but 60% melted away right away.
however I'm not going to change my opinion

 

[john_entony]

This is a situation in which AA couldn't kill anyone; it's certainly not a bubble at all or a big tournament, but 60% melted away right away.
however I'm not going to change my opinion

That's a great case! Yes, and it was only 2 opponents, not 3. I often lose with >80% win rate on the turn, so in these two situations I would choose to play against only 1 opponent with “AA”.

 

[iwont20]

I would chose the first option, 40-50 blinds on the buble is good for me 😋 Considering that blind levels are good and it's not turbo, I can be perfectly fine and play this stack to go up to 80 blinds, which, as far as I understand, could be won in the second option. AA dominates any hand preflop with equity a lot more than 60%, so no, no multi-pot rollercoaster for me. Of course, I understand that I can lose with AA, then it is what it is. Even if you play perfect, you won't be able to win every tournament, therefore you will be inevitably leaving them with coolers and bad beats. It's a nature of a game.

 

[john_entony]

I would chose the first option, 40-50 blinds on the buble is good for me 😋 Considering that blind levels are good and it's not turbo, I can be perfectly fine and play this stack to go up to 80 blinds, which, as far as I understand, could be won in the second option. AA dominates any hand preflop with equity a lot more than 60%, so no, no multi-pot rollercoaster for me. Of course, I understand that I can lose with AA, then it is what it is. Even if you play perfect, you won't be able to win every tournament, therefore you will be inevitably leaving them with coolers and bad beats. It's a nature of a game.

Yeah, I have a similar psychology. When I lose with pre-flop monster hands like “QQ”, “KK” or “AA”, I have nothing to reproach myself for, if I forced my opponent to go all-in on pre-flop. Good luck in the tournaments!

 

[thetick33]

i dont care the situation id never fold aa ever and have never folded qq or kk and dont see situation id think about it even....i even called it a week ago when had kk i was like yep getting to bubble kk hits chip leader all ins i was like yep aces...but ive won kk for 4k vs aa in past so i played it lol hit quads that 4k time so ya is a non fold to me....im not one of those guys who would take the money in a game show ill fight till have to take the money lol

 

[CDNMAN 42]

Let's imagine you are playing a major online tournament. For example, the Sunday Million. Bubble. Your stack is over 20 big blinds.

First situation: you have "AA" on the big blind and the chip leader in front of you goes all-in.

Second situation: you and 3 other players (all with stacks at least as big as yours) go all-in on pre-flop (3 players have a cooler and chip leader with “74”). You have a 60% chance of winning on the turn.

So, I propose you to choose from these 2 situations. Which one will you choose and why?

I would really consider the first situation, the chip leader who jammed could just be trying to steal the blinds especially since on the Bubble, as well AA is an 85% overall winner so not much reason not to take AA...and let the cards fall...good post John

 

[ztibor72]

I think I would choose the first situation.
I very rarely, almost never fold AA, and with a double I could have a good stack to continue.
Although there is no such option, since I usually enter big tournaments via satellite, if it is a big sum, I would even throw away the pair of aces in the bubble, practically this would be one of the few throws.

 

[hilary antonik filho]

As I like to pay to see, I go for the first option, in reality with AA in the preflop going all in, my chances are 20%, 80% of the time, I end up losing

 

[thedarkman]

I would raise with aces, a large raise. When you lose with aces you lose big, but you must at least attempt to force out the draws.

 

[Fosterbio]

In my opinion, the best situation is the one where you can win more chips

 

[Pokerpoet2]

Assuming I had the same hand in both scenarios, I would probably choose both, If you are not calling an all-in, In those situations When are you calling? The only thing that would stop me is if we were so close to the Money bubble, Then I would consider folding A/A.
I have done it in some Games reluctantly, and I have missed some possibilities to double up, But I have also lost with A/A in the same situation, One game I particularly remember was when I came across a player in a Bounty builder game with a Huge Bounty but with very few chips, I was waiting for him to shove and I would have called with practically any 2 decent cards, Unfortunately for me, the Chip Leader joined the table just as this other player shoved, and when I called with A/A, the chip leader re-raised all-in and took us both out with 7/8 off suit.

That's greed for you!

 

[john_entony]

Assuming I had the same hand in both scenarios, I would probably choose both, If you are not calling an all-in, In those situations When are you calling? The only thing that would stop me is if we were so close to the Money bubble, Then I would consider folding A/A.
I have done it in some Games reluctantly, and I have missed some possibilities to double up, But I have also lost with A/A in the same situation, One game I particularly remember was when I came across a player in a Bounty builder game with a Huge Bounty but with very few chips, I was waiting for him to shove and I would have called with practically any 2 decent cards, Unfortunately for me, the Chip Leader joined the table just as this other player shoved, and when I called with A/A, the chip leader re-raised all-in and took us both out with 7/8 off suit.

That's greed for you!

Thanks for the reply! In both situations you are on the bubble, meaning the prize area comes after 2-3 hands. And it's a big online tournament with no knockout rewards, but with a good money guarantee. A situation where the chip leader calls with a weak hand is the 2nd situation (and no, you don't necessarily have "AA" in your hand, but you have 60% win rate on the turn). In the 1st situation you have “AA” and your opponent has a weaker hand, accordingly.