How bad can the bad runs get?

[Poker Orifice]

Ask yourself how many of these 57 times it was an incorrect play .
Equity doesn't always give you right . E.g got AK often ? So what? Statistically AK wins 1/3 times .

How many of the 57 hands where played in /Out of position? Did you always put it in preflop?
I can't imagine it was much more than AIPFs

OP stated that when the chips went in he was always ahead on all 57 hands. Whether or not it was AK is irrelevant (almost as much as suggesting AK only wins 1/3 times...what?)
Not sure what difference position would make in this case. Huh? When the chips went in he was ahead. Maybe it was on the turn?

 

[fundiver199]

No, I just found it very unusual that I could get in dominating 57 times in a row and lose all 57.

Yes this would indeed be very unusual, since you are not supposed to have the best hand more than half the time, when you are all-in. Maybe 55-60% of the time, if you play in loose games. So this mostly sounds like something, you made up to be able to tell a cool story

 

[Station_Master]

Yes this would indeed be very unusual, since you are not supposed to have the best hand more than half the time, when you are all-in. Maybe 55-60% of the time, if you play in loose games. So this mostly sounds like something, you made up to be able to tell a cool story

This is very true. And especially if you get it in preflop (which is common in MTTs and SNGs!) you would rarely have as much as 75% equity, often it is 40% - 60% when neither hand is dominated.

No doubt the OP is going through a down swing though and hope his luck around. Of course each hand is independent so the downswing could continue.

 

[fundiver199]

No doubt the OP is going through a down swing though and hope his luck around.

If he is concerned about losing in play money games, then maybe time to find another hobby? Alternatively there are still sites, that accept US based players for real money games. So why not play there instead of wasting time on play money tables, when he is already an experienced player?

 

[jmbluffnstuff]

OP stated that when the chips went in he was always ahead on all 57 hands. Whether or not it was AK is irrelevant (almost as much as suggesting AK only wins 1/3 times...what?)
Not sure what difference position would make in this case. Huh? When the chips went in he was ahead. Maybe it was on the turn?

jm, I didn't mean it to come off as condescending... just wanted to have a bit of fun. I had hoped you might've liked it & had a chuckle.
SORRY if it came off poorly. And sorry for sounding condescending.
It certainly is A LOT of hands to get it in ahead & lose. I've had bad days, bad weeks, really bad runs BUT never that many hands in a row. Then again I'm certain I've never gotten it in ahead more than 10x in a row (if that).

There might be some sites you can actually play on while residing in the USA. I play a bit on SportsBetting (same as Betonline), and AmericasCardroom, Blackchip Poker. Bodog (Bovada) might be an option. Also GlobalPoker. And depending upon what state you're in, you might be able to play on WSOP, Stars, 888 or Partypoker.
Personally I'd disregard the comment by G09030 above... his comments have absolutely nothing to do with whether you got it in ahead or not (as you obviously know).

I'm sure my post looked like someone claiming "foul play" from the poker site, so it's all good.
I have no belief that any site would ever "rig" the game, especially against a player that has a positive ROI, as these are the long term bread and butter for them, the players who they get the most rake from.
I have played a ton of hands online, I don't actually know how many, on pokerstars it was enough to go from15k to 8.5 bil grinding, so my guess would be at least a million. I don't play MTTS much at all, though I did have one 800k win in one of them.
It's quite possible I had won so many times that a run that bad was immanent.
I don't tend to keep track of hands for more than 3 months.
I cashed in the last 3 games I have played so I guess it's turning back around now.

Looking at my data from several hands I did find a mistake I am making that I didn't even realize I was. I'm not value betting my nutted hands the way I should be, I'm trying to get all in as soon as possible, I guess because I'm worried I will take a beat. Costing myself long term equity.

I guess in the end all I can say is it is possible to run that bad, and it can make you play improperly without even realizing it.

I did try Americas Cardroom, but got a virus on my computer from it.
I live in North Carolina and they don't allow any online poker for real money, but sports betting did just recently open up, so I guess I need to read the new law and see if poker is included.

 

[LUKADONCICMVP]

can last for a long long time, but u have to be patient.

 

[jmbluffnstuff]

If he is concerned about losing in play money games, then maybe time to find another hobby? Alternatively there are still sites, that accept US based players for real money games. So why not play there instead of wasting time on play money tables, when he is already an experienced player?

My only concern was if this was "normal", because it didn't seem normal to me. Only 8 of the 57 were all in preflop, in all 8 of those I had the over pair.
I live in North Carolina, and as far as I know, real money poker is illegal except at the tribal casino's, which the closest one is 4 hours away.
This is the reason I am playing the monopoly money.

To be honest with you, I don't see much difference in the play at the 20-25 million chip buy-in's that I did playing low stakes on FT Poker, or at live 1/3. Calling stations, Nits, and aggro-donks for the most part. Exploit, exploit, exploit.
I did go from 15k to 8.5 billion, and ran very good for long stretches, so it's possible I guess that I was due for a horrendous run of variance.
I just had never heard of one like this.
I did cash in the 3 games I played yesterday, so hopefully it's over.
At least I can say I've done one thing in poker that very few can say they have....maybe I start calling myself Mr.57?

 

[lilypond]

I've been playing poker since the early 2000's. My first venture into real money was on FT poker in 2009, and the best I could do was break even.
So I figured I must be doing something wrong, and I cashed out.
Found the Sit N Go wizard, it was free for 90 days, so I played many games on the play chips, and went through the simulations of what decision to make for many hours.
I got to where I was making the right decision 98% of the time, so I logged back on to FT, didn't deposit, won $5 in a freeroll, and turned it to just shy of 3k. Unfortunately Black Friday put an end to it all. I did get my money though. I called the DOJ, and they tried to say I gambled illegally, but since I made no wager of my own money, and built it from a freeroll winning, how could I have gambled? They paid me 3 years later, I called them every 3 months and gave same true story.

I had some bad swings on FT, 20-25 buy in's, but the math always caught back up eventually.

Since Black Friday I've only been able to play a handful of times at the nearest casino which is 4 hours away, and averaged $45 /hr playing cash games.

I practice on Pokerstars play chips because that's the only game I can play now due to law.
I turned the 15k they give you to 8.5 billion, from Sit N Go, and the last 4 years learning exploitative play and GTO.

I'm currently on an 80 buy in downswing. No tilt, I'm getting in with the best of it 90% of the time, coolered 10%, set over set, flush over flush, KK into AA, you know the deal.
I was speaking with someone from pokerstars via e-mail and they abruptly stopped responding after I sent them the 57th hand in a row where I was all in as a 75% fav. (All 57 I was 75% to 90% to win). All 57 in a row lost.

I just can't understand how this is mathematically possible to get in dominating so many times in a row and lose all of them. I've never had a streak of variance like this, didn't think it was possible.

I guess the good thing is that it isn't real money, and yes, I've heard the saying "You will run bad once worse than you ever thought possible", but this goes even beyond that.

How is this even possible? If so, how long can it last?

Those are good stats overall. I think it's normal as that's why you are recommed to keep a minimum of 100 buy-ins in your balance. 80 buy-ins is still under that amount, so I would attribute it to variance.

 

[Misanthrop]

I don't know it this helps but I try:

I am sure when you lose more than 10 hands in a row, the game is busted

Ok officially thats not true of course... Whats true is: it is unlikely to lose with a better hand multiple times in a row. HOWEVER, of course its still possible to lose with a better hand multiple thousand times in a row - it is only unlikely.

Better luck next time

 

[Rob Hobson]

Very

 

[Risto234]

Very

Guess you kinda right
Saw recently how someone literally lost 1000€ in NL400 since he went all-in post flop with K8 against individual who had 73 (cards were 33J44) - no clue wtf was that genius thinking (or trying to do) so i just estimate this creature sure hates money ...

 

[dreamer13]

In my opinion, the main reason why most people fail at poker is not due to their lack of technical knowledge of the game.The real reason why they cannot achieve real results at the poker tables lies in their inability to consistently apply this knowledge during the game.

 

[martDdart]

I had a bad run that lasted for 3 months I played daily about 2 hours ,statistical fluctuations are a part of poker with solid good poker you will beat any bad run in the long run.

 

[jaytee47]

You can play like garbage but run like god and think that you're making "unconventional +EV decisions".

You can make all the right plays and the most you'll realistically be is a 4-1 favorite. Anything more and you should loosen up.

If you feel like something isn't right, you should take a break, something I do periodically. Unless you've had your head in a solver for the last 3 years, it's not a game where you *really* know your performance vs. variance.

 

[aorodrigo]

I was speaking with someone from pokerstars via e-mail and they abruptly stopped responding after I sent them the 57th hand in a row where I was all in as a 75% fav. (All 57 I was 75% to 90% to win). All 57 in a row lost.

Sorry PokerStars supporter team.. Sorry...

 

[Margo17]

This is normal, there are very good professional players who have spent more than 1 year without making money, especially when they increase their buy-in.

 

[Flyer35]

I'm currently on an 80 buy in downswing. No tilt, I'm getting in with the best of it 90% of the time, coolered 10%, set over set, flush over flush, KK into AA, you know the deal.
I was speaking with someone from pokerstars via e-mail and they abruptly stopped responding after I sent them the 57th hand in a row where I was all in as a 75% fav. (All 57 I was 75% to 90% to win). All 57 in a row lost.

I can sympathize. I know the feeling all too well. It's not supposed to be "normal", but it certainly was for me. In my case it was real money. I eventually quit playing altogether for a while.

 

[okeedokalee]

I've had several runs lasting 3 weeks or longer. Maybe take a break, do something completely different and return refreshed.
If you are only playing for play chips, try Replay. The RNG there doesn't constantly generate big hands as it seems to on Stars.

 

[Magallaneroy]

Bad, very bad. If you don't stay focused you can lose a lot of money and your lifestyle.

 

[hardongear]

Very bad even for the best in the world. Daniel Negreanu recently went just over 2 years without a decent cash/win playing MTT's.

I'm a 20+ year winning player on Pokerstars. I've gone 2.5 years before without a decent cash or win in MTT's.

Fwiw comparing play money poker to real money poker and how bad one can run is moronic. Play money poker is nothing but bingo. When you get 4-5+ callers every hand variance is gonna be way way way off the charts high.

I also don't for a second believe you're playing poker that perfectly. Not even the best in the world play that perfectly and get it in that good every single time. And you're far from the best in the world.

Bahaha arguing with support over play money poker is just stupid. No wonder they stopped replying they got tired of your stupid nonsense.

Cheers!!!

 

[thedarkman]

I truly believe some people are doomed to lose however well they play while others have fortune thrust upon them. The same is true for so many things in our so-called meritocratic society.