How bad can the bad runs get?

[jmbluffnstuff]

I've been playing poker since the early 2000's. My first venture into real money was on FT poker in 2009, and the best I could do was break even.
So I figured I must be doing something wrong, and I cashed out.
Found the Sit N Go wizard, it was free for 90 days, so I played many games on the play chips, and went through the simulations of what decision to make for many hours.
I got to where I was making the right decision 98% of the time, so I logged back on to FT, didn't deposit, won $5 in a freeroll, and turned it to just shy of 3k. Unfortunately Black Friday put an end to it all. I did get my money though. I called the DOJ, and they tried to say I gambled illegally, but since I made no wager of my own money, and built it from a freeroll winning, how could I have gambled? They paid me 3 years later, I called them every 3 months and gave same true story.

I had some bad swings on FT, 20-25 buy in's, but the math always caught back up eventually.

Since Black Friday I've only been able to play a handful of times at the nearest casino which is 4 hours away, and averaged $45 /hr playing cash games.

I practice on pokerstars play chips because that's the only game I can play now due to law.
I turned the 15k they give you to 8.5 billion, from Sit N Go, and the last 4 years learning exploitative play and GTO.

I'm currently on an 80 buy in downswing. No tilt, I'm getting in with the best of it 90% of the time, coolered 10%, set over set, flush over flush, KK into AA, you know the deal.
I was speaking with someone from pokerstars via e-mail and they abruptly stopped responding after I sent them the 57th hand in a row where I was all in as a 75% fav. (All 57 I was 75% to 90% to win). All 57 in a row lost.

I just can't understand how this is mathematically possible to get in dominating so many times in a row and lose all of them. I've never had a streak of variance like this, didn't think it was possible.

I guess the good thing is that it isn't real money, and yes, I've heard the saying "You will run bad once worse than you ever thought possible", but this goes even beyond that.

How is this even possible? If so, how long can it last?

 

[pentazepam]

How Long Can Bad Runs Last..

before it is probable that it isnt a bad run, but just a bad poker player ? I ask this question because it seems everyone has a different opinion. For example, lets say a poker player runs bad for 12 months and loses 3 million dollars in that time period. Would you say that is more of a bad...

www.cardschat.com

 

[Suns of Beaches]

Did u really contact and start argiung with support over...a small sample of play money hands ? 😂😂😂

Its no surprise they stopped answering imo. U actually can be happy they gave u any answer at all.

Man, sometimes i feel bad for poker support workers for having to deal with pokerplayers all day. Must be sooo tiring.

Ps: Whats the name of the casino near u? Must be an absolute fish heaven dream.

 

[jmbluffnstuff]

Did u really contact and start argiung with support over...a small sample of play money hands ? 😂😂😂

Its no surprise they stopped answering imo. U actually can be happy they gave u any answer at all.

Man, sometimes i feel bad for poker support workers for having to deal with pokerplayers all day. Must be sooo tiring.

Ps: Whats the name of the casino near u? Must be an absolute fish heaven dream.

So you are saying that it is "normal" variance to get in as the dominating favorite to win 57 times in a row, and lose all of them?
The casino that is "close" by (4 hours away as already stated) is Harrah's Cherokee.
I didn't know getting in dominating 57 times in a row qualifies someone to be a "fish". I kinda thought that was the objective of the game.

 

[jmbluffnstuff]

How Long Can Bad Runs Last..

before it is probable that it isnt a bad run, but just a bad poker player ? I ask this question because it seems everyone has a different opinion. For example, lets say a poker player runs bad for 12 months and loses 3 million dollars in that time period. Would you say that is more of a bad...

www.cardschat.com

Since when is getting in as the dominating favorite 57 times in a row considered bad play?

 

[Pokerpoet2]

Since when is getting in as the dominating favorite 57 times in a row considered bad play?

I tend to agree with you, there are some odd stats thrown about with On-line Poker, Which is why I do not completely trust it. Sure I have made some money out of it but I stick to Small and Micro stakes, simply because I do not trust them to be honest, I started the same way Playing with Fun money, and then started cashing in freerolls, until I built up a small bankroll so I could play real money games.
I have played live games in Pubs and casinos and made money in both Tournament and Cash games, but whenever I start to play cash games On-line, I start bleeding money, Which is why I stopped Chasing the "Throwables" because most of the Time you had to play cash games to win the "Throwable".
I am not convinced that Cash games On-line is the way to go, to play Poker, Lets be honest here They make more money from the Rake in Cash games so they want you to win a little here and there to keep you playing them, It would be easy for them to throw a couple of Bots into the games to make money from unsuspecting players.

 

[MK_]

I mean 57 times in a row... is nothing, literally nothing. You can run bad for months at a time and it's still nothing. Losing 75% hands is nothing. You put your chips in, you lost, what do you want them to do?

 

[Suns of Beaches]

So you are saying that it is "normal" variance to get in as the dominating favorite to win 57 times in a row, and lose all of them?
The casino that is "close" by (4 hours away as already stated) is Harrah's Cherokee.
I didn't know getting in dominating 57 times in a row qualifies someone to be a "fish". I kinda thought that was the objective of the game.

Yes its normal variance. Everything u see there qualifies as normal variance.

Contacting and arguing with support over play money hands and not understanding that this is as embarassing as it gets is something only a fish would do yes.

What did u expect them to tell u?

 

[steve01991]

I've been playing poker since the early 2000's. My first venture into real money was on FT poker in 2009, and the best I could do was break even.
So I figured I must be doing something wrong, and I cashed out.
Found the Sit N Go wizard, it was free for 90 days, so I played many games on the play chips, and went through the simulations of what decision to make for many hours.
I got to where I was making the right decision 98% of the time, so I logged back on to FT, didn't deposit, won $5 in a freeroll, and turned it to just shy of 3k. Unfortunately Black Friday put an end to it all. I did get my money though. I called the DOJ, and they tried to say I gambled illegally, but since I made no wager of my own money, and built it from a freeroll winning, how could I have gambled? They paid me 3 years later, I called them every 3 months and gave same true story.

I had some bad swings on FT, 20-25 buy in's, but the math always caught back up eventually.

Since Black Friday I've only been able to play a handful of times at the nearest casino which is 4 hours away, and averaged $45 /hr playing cash games.

I practice on Pokerstars play chips because that's the only game I can play now due to law.
I turned the 15k they give you to 8.5 billion, from Sit N Go, and the last 4 years learning exploitative play and GTO.

I'm currently on an 80 buy in downswing. No tilt, I'm getting in with the best of it 90% of the time, coolered 10%, set over set, flush over flush, KK into AA, you know the deal.
I was speaking with someone from pokerstars via e-mail and they abruptly stopped responding after I sent them the 57th hand in a row where I was all in as a 75% fav. (All 57 I was 75% to 90% to win). All 57 in a row lost.

I just can't understand how this is mathematically possible to get in dominating so many times in a row and lose all of them. I've never had a streak of variance like this, didn't think it was possible.

I guess the good thing is that it isn't real money, and yes, I've heard the saying "You will run bad once worse than you ever thought possible", but this goes even beyond that.

How is this even possible? If so, how long can it last?

its not possible unless there is interference, which i think is highly possible.

 

[odonob]

Yes, I have had a very bad run lately. AA cracked numerous times by lower pair. AK almost never hitting. Opponents multiple times hitting the river. It does happen and I will not sugar coat it, it’s difficult to take.

 

[Luvepoker]

How is this even possible? If so, how long can it last?

Even though the odd is small it does happen. Listen to some top pros and some of their downturns and may realize how bad it can be.

I don't know why this is happening to you but i don't think the site is doing anything to make you lose. It also takes millions of hands to really see what the number would be. If you had that many hands, you might be surprised and the good and bad times you have and how good or bad they were.

Now I have been in a bit of a down streak as well and it is wild some of the stats I have seen. It not my first time or will not be my last. Its also happened to me live and online. `back-to-back losses on the river to a 1 outer. and losing 6 staring times in a row with poker aces all in preflop. I have people say I would not play on that site again if i were you. It was at the casino. KK vs K5o and I am drawing deep on the 555 flop, in the same casino. While yes this run is deep and bad for you it will turn if you play solid poker.

FYI, i have gone 6 months on a downturn. It does happen.

 

[WrongUsername]

u can run bad for your whole life it´s not a skill game.

 

[Artbart805]

worst ,bad,badder,baddest>

 

[Poker Orifice]

So when you wrote in to Support, (after sending them the 57th hand in a row) what type of response were you hoping/looking for?

Perhaps something like this?
Dear jmbluff'nFuss
We've reviewed your playing history here at Pokerstars over the years and we can see that you're one of the very best players currently playing in the PlayChip division (our staff has also invested a bunch of time reviewing your hand histories so that we could determine your skill level... which I must say became VERY apparent almost immediately! Some of the staff had even heard about you from Fulltilt days, making an incredible run to 4-figures from a mere $5 freeroll cash. OF COURSE we know who you are! (no need for repeated emails bluff'nfuss).

To keep it fair for our less skilled players, you've unfortunately been designated to the PRO category... All future play has been slotted into the suitable RNG as a result. Keep in mind that we can just as easily change this by you merely making a deposit on the site. (of course this would also involve your re-locating to a different state where we actually offer real money games).

Hang in there jmbluff'nFuss. You had your fun with online poker but I'm afraid going forward you'll just be DOOMED!

 

[Poker Orifice]

 

[Poker Orifice]

I tend to agree with you, there are some odd stats thrown about with On-line Poker, Which is why I do not completely trust it. Sure I have made some money out of it but I stick to Small and Micro stakes, simply because I do not trust them to be honest, I started the same way Playing with Fun money, and then started cashing in Freerolls, until I built up a small bankroll so I could play real money games.
I have played live games in Pubs and Casinos and made money in both Tournament and Cash games, but whenever I start to play cash games On-line, I start bleeding money, Which is why I stopped Chasing the "Throwables" because most of the Time you had to play cash games to win the "Throwable".
I am not convinced that Cash games On-line is the way to go, to play Poker, Lets be honest here They make more money from the Rake in Cash games so they want you to win a little here and there to keep you playing them, It would be easy for them to throw a couple of Bots into the games to make money from unsuspecting players.

imo & from my experience, Online cash games are much more difficult vs. Online Tournament play.

 

[jmbluffnstuff]

Even though the odd is small it does happen. Listen to some top pros and some of their downturns and may realize how bad it can be.

I don't know why this is happening to you but i don't think the site is doing anything to make you lose. It also takes millions of hands to really see what the number would be. If you had that many hands, you might be surprised and the good and bad times you have and how good or bad they were.

Now I have been in a bit of a down streak as well and it is wild some of the stats I have seen. It not my first time or will not be my last. Its also happened to me live and online. `back-to-back losses on the river to a 1 outer. and losing 6 staring times in a row with poker aces all in preflop. I have people say I would not play on that site again if i were you. It was at the casino. KK vs K5o and I am drawing deep on the 555 flop, in the same casino. While yes this run is deep and bad for you it will turn if you play solid poker.

FYI, i have gone 6 months on a downturn. It does happen.

This is what I was looking for, someone who has experienced a very bad run and the turn came eventually.
I have no belief that any poker site would do anything to make someone lose, especially someone who has positive ROI, it just doesn't make sense, they are getting more rake from winning players than losing ones, because the losing one's play less hands long term.
Just never had a run like this and was curious if anyone else had.
Thank you for your reply.

 

[jmbluffnstuff]

So when you wrote in to Support, (after sending them the 57th hand in a row) what type of response were you hoping/looking for?

Perhaps something like this?
Dear jmbluff'nFuss
We've reviewed your playing history here at Pokerstars over the years and we can see that you're one of the very best players currently playing in the PlayChip division (our staff has also invested a bunch of time reviewing your hand histories so that we could determine your skill level... which I must say became VERY apparent almost immediately! Some of the staff had even heard about you from Fulltilt days, making an incredible run to 4-figures from a mere $5 freeroll cash. OF COURSE we know who you are! (no need for repeated emails bluff'nfuss).

To keep it fair for our less skilled players, you've unfortunately been designated to the PRO category... All future play has been slotted into the suitable RNG as a result. Keep in mind that we can just as easily change this by you merely making a deposit on the site. (of course this would also involve your re-locating to a different state where we actually offer real money games).

Hang in there jmbluff'nFuss. You had your fun with online poker but I'm afraid going forward you'll just be DOOMED!

No, I just found it very unusual that I could get in dominating 57 times in a row and lose all 57.
You can discredit what I've done playing poker if it makes you feel good.
I never claimed to be a professional, but I have done well everywhere I've played.
I just never experienced a run like this, or that it was even possible.
There was no arguing with the person I spoke with from pokerstars via e-mail, quite the contrary, he didn't believe what I was saying was true, and asked me to send him the hands, which I did, in several different batches, when I sent him 50-57, he completely stopped all contact.
My objective for this thread was to see if anyone else had run bad like this before, because in over 20 years of playing, I haven't, and haven't heard of anyone else who had.
I did get a reply from someone who did so at least I know that it can happen, even though it's highly unlikely.
Hope you made yourself feel better with your condescending reply, I'll keep getting in good.

 

[jmbluffnstuff]

Yes its normal variance. Everything u see there qualifies as normal variance.

Contacting and arguing with support over play money hands and not understanding that this is as embarassing as it gets is something only a fish would do yes.

What did u expect them ty tell u?

I don't see losing 57 in a row getting in dominating as "normal" variance. I see it as an anomaly, highly unlikely.
I didn't argue with anyone, I simply sent an e-mail asking the same question. How can this be "normal" variance and how long can this last?
No argument, the person from pokerstars didn't believe I was telling the truth, and requested me to send him the hands, which I did in several batches.
When I sent 50-57 he cut off contact, no more replies. Why I do not know.

If it makes you feel good to call me a fish, go right ahead, you cannot tilt me, so keep trying in vain if you desire.
I did have someone reply with a very good response who has also run like this and gave good feedback tactfully, unlike others, who drew conclusions and were totally condescending.

I do know this though.
A fish can't turn $5 from a freeroll to almost 3k playing mostly 9 person S&G games. I credit the Sit N Go wizard for that. Excellent educational poker tool.
A fish doesn't finish in the top 7% of the stakes they played for a full year.
A fish cannot turn 15k play chips to 8.5 billion.

I also know this.
Smart people talk about ideas.
Average people talk about things.
And stupid people talk about other people to make themselves feel better because they have no inclination to achieve anything. So, they revel in the misfortune of others in a feeble attempt to do their pathetic lives justice.

 

[Suns of Beaches]

Ok. Wish u good luck on ur play money adventure and keep us updated with stars support if they ever answer again.

(Popcorn is ready)

 

[G0930]

Ask yourself how many of these 57 times it was an incorrect play .
equity doesn't always give you right . E.g got AK often ? So what? Statistically AK wins 1/3 times .

How many of the 57 hands where played in /Out of position? Did you always put it in preflop?
I can't imagine it was much more than AIPFs

Since when is getting in as the dominating favorite 57 times in a row considered bad play?

 

[G0930]

And he @Suns of Beaches didn't call you a fish...he assumed that the casino near you must be "a fish heave'sn dream "
That you where called a fish is in your head but it's an interesting insight into your self esteem regarding your game...
Even if there was an implication by him ....doesn't justify this little rant.
You get offended over nothing .
Would help yourself to realize that your hand request in play money is really low priority for PS.
It's not a charity website it's about making money hence why they have many customers writing them often with serious numbers...this would be high priority
And you're angry about a longer lowstreak in play money...

 

[jmbluffnstuff]

Ask yourself how many of these 57 times it was an incorrect play .
Equity doesn't always give you right . E.g got AK often ? So what? Statistically AK wins 1/3 times .

How many of the 57 hands where played in /Out of position? Did you always put it in preflop?
I can't imagine it was much more than AIPFs

None of them were incorrect, I was a 75% to 90% favorite when the chips went in, this is of course assuming all my opponents' outs were live. I don't know what cards are dead.

AK was involved in 7 of them, the 7 hands I was up against were.....
I came in standard 2nd UTG withAdKh, button calls5h9s off, Ah6d8s flop, opponent shoved I called turn was 3c, 7h on river. 81%
I 3 bet from sb preflop, Qc10c on Ah5dKc flop, I have AdKs, I Ied for 1/2 pot, opponent shoved I call. Again 81%
I came in standard UTG, BB calls with 7h7d, I have AcKh, flop is As4d10d, I led 2/3rd pot, opponent calls, turn 2d, I led 40%, opponent shoves turn, river5d. 75%
I 3bet from Button with AdKd, hijack calls with AhQs, flop comes 4d9hAs, opponent bets full pot, I shove opponent calls, turn 5s, river Qh. 87.5%
I came in standard from early middle AsKd, button flats with 3h3c, flop is AdAh4c, I check, button shoves, turn Jd, river 3s. 91%
I flatted a 3 bet from sb with AsKc, opponent has JhJc, flop comes 3hAh4d, I check opponent leads for 1/2 pot I call, turn 9h, I shove opponent calls, river 2h. 75%
Last one folded to sb, I come in standard with AcKh, BB calls with 8h-6d, flop comes Ks6cQh, I lead for 1/2 pot, opponent shoves, turn 2d, river 8d. 81.5%

I am sure I shoved AK on short stack several times, but none of these were 75% favorite when it went in, the best you can get in preflop with AK is 73% anyway.
Most of them are going to 2 to 1 favs or flips, with the occasional cooler AA or KK, so I don't count those, when you are in a 9 person S&G and have a short stack, shoving AK pre is standard.

 

[jmbluffnstuff]

And he @Suns of Beaches didn't call you a fish...he assumed that the casino near you must be "a fish heave'sn dream "
That you where called a fish is in your head but it's an interesting insight into your self esteem regarding your game...
Even if there was an implication by him ....doesn't justify this little rant.
You get offended over nothing .
Would help yourself to realize that your hand request in play money is really low priority for PS.
It's not a charity website it's about making money hence why they have many customers writing them often with serious numbers...this would be high priority
And you're angry about a longer lowstreak in play money...

The word fish was used "only a fish" in his second reply, go back and read it. I'm still not tilting.
I don't need pokerstars to send me HH's, I keep my own data. I never requested any HH's.
This isn't a rant, this is confusion over how I could possibly get in dominating 57 times and lose all 57. A 75% to 90% fav.
I'm not angry, why should I be? I got in good, isn't that what you are supposed to do?
Just shocked that variance could be this unbelievably bad.
Was just curious if anyone else had ever ran this bad before, because I'd never seen or heard of anything like it.
I got a very good reply from Luvepoker, so all these bad one's make no difference to me at all.

 

[Poker Orifice]

jm, I didn't mean it to come off as condescending... just wanted to have a bit of fun. I had hoped you might've liked it & had a chuckle.
SORRY if it came off poorly. And sorry for sounding condescending.
It certainly is A LOT of hands to get it in ahead & lose. I've had bad days, bad weeks, really bad runs BUT never that many hands in a row. Then again I'm certain I've never gotten it in ahead more than 10x in a row (if that).

There might be some sites you can actually play on while residing in the USA. I play a bit on SportsBetting (same as Betonline), and AmericasCardroom, Blackchip Poker. bodog (Bovada) might be an option. Also GlobalPoker. And depending upon what state you're in, you might be able to play on wsop, Stars, 888 or partypoker.
Personally I'd disregard the comment by G09030 above... his comments have absolutely nothing to do with whether you got it in ahead or not (as you obviously know).