What are the chances of making your flush with two suited cards from pre-flop?

[Chemist]

Standard phrase bandied about when I was playing live,
and people kept saying 'but it was suited',
was it's only 1% difference.

In other words 6.4% or 5.4% (you can do the calculations for the accurate unsuited value, or look it up if you really want to),
but the point is that there is not much difference,
and either way it is still a pretty small chance.

 

[crisbiazus17]

Its roughly a 33% chance, not counting the flush cards held by other players.

 

[Aleksei]

Its roughly a 33% chance, not counting the flush cards held by other players.

35%, but that's from a flop FD, not from a suited hand pre.

 

[DunningKruger]

This topic has just about run its course methinks. Let me run some numbers just quickly here and put all this to rest.

The probability of flopping four to a flush with suited hole cards is 39 × c(11 2) / c(50 3), which is ~10.944%.

The probability of completing a flush once you've flopped four of a suit is 1 - 19/47 × 37/23, which is ~34.968%.

The probability of holding a flush of your suit when the board is out in full if you have suited hole cards and haven't seen a flop yet is... bear with me here... [c(39 2) × c(11 3) + 39 × c(11 4) + c(11 5)] / c(50 5). This is ~6.399%. Also note that ~5.77% of the time the community cards contain exactly 3 of your suit.

Any other answers are wrong.

 

[Flsnookman]

100 percent you get there if its vs my flopped set.

 

[Samango]

Its roughly a 33% chance, not counting the flush cards held by other players.

copying other people's incorrect posts, word for word, is not a good way to increase your post count

 

[guutox]

I will save this picture in my pc, good numbers

 

[Kubios]

How to calculate odds of getting a flush suited pre-flop

The attached file includes the answer to the original question and how to calculate it:

 

[JayE]

Depends live play or online?
It seems to be your odds online of flushes are very slim.
I play several sites and they all seem to faver straights and full houses also top pair or tripping up your pocket pairs. For some reason they all differ greatly from the odds of real life play. Wish this was not the case!

 

[vinnie]

Depends live play or online?
It seems to be your odds online of flushes are very slim.
I play several sites and they all seem to faver straights and full houses also top pair or tripping up your pocket pairs. For some reason they all differ greatly from the odds of real life play. Wish this was not the case!

False. We've actually run these numbers and probabilities from hand history samples on here. What we found was that the expected number of suited hole cards, flush draws, and completed flushes was in line with the actual odds.

Your claim is not backed up by reality.

 

[Tony Vayer]

It depends on the number of players at the table. We have 9 outs but they decrease from the number of players.

 

[mtl mile end]

Next year, on the tenth anniversary of this thread, I will bump it......and not answer the OP's question. It's like zombie that only passes through town every once in a while.

 

[Samango]

Wow this thread is still going... and still getting spurious answers — Brilliant

 

[Poker Orifice]

Wow this thread is still going... and still getting spurious answers — Brilliant

You've been a positive contributor to this one! And have hung in there throughout. Well done sir! I'll have to keep my email notifications on for this one so that I'll be sure not to miss it once it gets active again some day in the future. Hmm..... that's "IF" it doesn't end up getting moved to that 'other thread' (yah... the BIG one!).

 

[Poker Orifice]

It depends on the number of players at the table. We have 9 outs but they decrease from the number of players.

Actually it doesn't. We can't see the other's hole cards so it makes zero difference.

 

[Fishmasterbaiter]

Sooted!

not very good it seems, unless you're the guy playing against me in which case it would be about 100% of the time, haha.

What are the chances of making your flush with two suited cards from pre-flop? For example, I have A 7 suited. What are the chances of making a flush from pre-flop to river? This is one thing I can't calculate.

If anyone can be generous enough as well, what are chances of making your straight by the river for connectors, 1-gap, 2-gap, 3-gap?

I don't know how to calculate this. I can calculate FLOpping flush draw or flopping straights/flushes but I don't know how to calculate making flushes and straights from pre-flop to river. Please help. Thank you.