What are the chances of making your flush with two suited cards from pre-flop?

[PoKeRFoRNiA]

What are the chances of making your flush with two suited cards from pre-flop? For example, I have A 7 suited. What are the chances of making a flush from pre-flop to river? This is one thing I can't calculate.

If anyone can be generous enough as well, what are chances of making your straight by the river for connectors, 1-gap, 2-gap, 3-gap?

I don't know how to calculate this. I can calculate FLOpping flush draw or flopping straights/flushes but I don't know how to calculate making flushes and straights from pre-flop to river. Please help. Thank you.

 

[diamond_06_06]

According to my friend google (and I'm sure that he is nice enough to answer you as well if you ask him), the odds of being dealt any 2 suited cards are 3.3 - 1 (or 24%), if you have 2 suited cards the odds of flopping a flush are 118 - 1 (or 0.84%), and with 2 suited cards the odds of making a flush by the river are 15 - 1 (or 6.4%).

 

[diamond_06_06]

And I'm not really sure how know the odds of making a straight with 2 gappers by the river will improve your play any. Sure knowing the odds of making a straight once you have sen a flop helps, but pre-flop to river?? Not really sure how this helps, nor how to work it out.

 

[Tommy999]

how to figure

to figure the odds....first recognize that there are 10 ways to make the flush....1st way is help, help, help....in that way you make the flush on the flop, another is no help, help, help, help...you make the flush on the turn, another is help, no help, help, help...again you make the flush on the turn but in a different way...you will find that there are ten combos to make the flush. Then you add up the probabilities from all ten combos...example....for the first way to make it on the flop.....first card-11/50 chance for help, 2nd card 10/49 chance for help, third card-9/48 chance for help....multiply the three probabilities to get the total probability of making the flush on the flop=.84%. add up all 10 ways and you come up with 6.4%

 

[DrazaFFT]

i really really love to play any suited ace, mostly hoping to flop a flush, now after reading the comments and seeing the odds i realize that my loses with them was nothing else than just bad play...

 

[Aleksei]

What are the chances of making your flush with two suited cards from pre-flop? For example, I have A 7 suited. What are the chances of making a flush from pre-flop to river? This is one thing I can't calculate.

If anyone can be generous enough as well, what are chances of making your straight by the river for connectors, 1-gap, 2-gap, 3-gap?

-You flop FD 10.5% when you have suited cards. You make a flush by the river 6.5% of the time overall.

-Any specific straight combo has 2.26% odds of completing by the river, so just multiply that by the number of straight combos possible for a given hand. I'd recommend eliminating the ones that don't make the nuts (e.g. straights where a better straight is possible) from the calculation though.

 

[Michael Paler]

What are the chances of making your flush with two suited cards from pre-flop? For example, I have A 7 suited. What are the chances of making a flush from pre-flop to river? This is one thing I can't calculate.

If anyone can be generous enough as well, what are chances of making your straight by the river for connectors, 1-gap, 2-gap, 3-gap?

I don't know how to calculate this. I can calculate FLOpping flush draw or flopping straights/flushes but I don't know how to calculate making flushes and straights from pre-flop to river. Please help. Thank you.

This is easy and very simple. Flat out, if you have four parts of a flush, you will make it 35% of the time. Odds are 1.86 to 1 against it, with 2 cards to come. With only the river to come, you will only make it 19% of the time. The odds are 4.11 to 1 against it.

Now, lets use something that can help you figure this all out on the fly. It's called the rule of two: multiply your number of outs by 2, then add 2 to get your odds of hitting it.

You have four parts of a flush. 13 cards of that suit, you have 4; that leaves 9 cards, or outs, that can help you.

Multiply by 2 and you get 18. Now add 2 to that. You get 20. Thats 5 to 1 that you will make your flush. (20 goes into 100 five times). So it is 5-1 that you will make it, period, and you will 35% of the time on the turn, 19% of the time by the river.

Now, same thing applies to straights, but here is where you are going wrong. Gap or no gap is the wrong way to look at it; use your outs! So, here are some figures:

You have an open end straight draw, then you have 8 outs to make your st8 (4 bottom of the st8 cards and 4 top of the st8 cards). You will make that 31.5% of the time by the turn (it's 2.17 - 1 against you) and 17.4% of the time by the river if you miss your turn card needed (4.75-1).

Now, using the rule of two, you see that it is 8x2+2=12. 12 will go into 100 a little more than 8 times. So, you are looking at 8-1 hand odds that you will make it.

If you only need one card to make that st8, it is pretty dismal. That is only 4 outs. so, 4x2+2=10. You are looking at 10-1 hand odds that you will make it. However, you often have more outs than that.
You hold: 5h6h
Flop: 6d7h9h

Lets count those outs with that hand and that flop;
2 6's for trips or quads
3 5's for two pair
3 8's (no heart) for a st8
1 8h for a flush/st8 flush
8 other hearts for a flush
___
17 outs. 17x2+2=36, so 2.77-1 hand odds (100 / 36 = 2.77)

Now that you know the rule of two, use this chart to help out with the % chance of making it....

Please keep in mind, this is not pot odds. Typically you want your pot odds to be greater than your hand odds, or it is not worth a flat call. In the example I gave you (2.7-1 rounded) you would need that or better (3-1) to justify calling. If you are not getting that, you might want to raise the bet in order to get there. If the pot is 50.00 and you are looking at a flop bet of 50, that means you have to call 50 to win 100. That is only 2-1. That could mean fold or raise, but that is another lesson entirely. I am pointing out to you now only how to calc hand odds and use with odds of making it overall to compare and learn.

Hope it helps.

 

[Aleksei]

Mike, OP was asking about odds from preflop. This is prob all useful info, but not what he wanted to know.

 

[DunningKruger]

His question was answered about 4 years ago. I think he's good now.

 

[Aleksei]

His question was answered about 4 years ago. I think he's good now.

LOL, didn't see that.

 

[Michael Paler]

Mike, OP was asking about odds from preflop. This is prob all useful info, but not what he wanted to know.

LOL, didn't see that.

You know why I answered this right? To burn it into my head. I am still learning so I like to repeat and write things out to help make it stick. Hey, I cannot afford a WPT boot camp or other 3-day poker camp with a pro, so it's all I got. Years old or not, lol.

Practice makes perfect.

 

[DrazaFFT]

Just one quicky, now when i know the hand odds of flush draw, can i simplify it by just looking at the pot odds, call on flop with pot odds better then 3 to 1 and on turn with better then 5 to 1 and use the same logic for straight draws... Does it mean that ill make money long term that way...

 

[Samango]

This is easy and very simple. Flat out, if you have four parts of a flush, you will make it 35% of the time. Odds are 1.86 to 1 against it, with 2 cards to come. With only the river to come, you will only make it 19% of the time. The odds are 4.11 to 1 against it.

Now, lets use something that can help you figure this all out on the fly. It's called the rule of two: multiply your number of outs by 2, then add 2 to get your odds of hitting it.

You have four parts of a flush. 13 cards of that suit, you have 4; that leaves 9 cards, or outs, that can help you.

Multiply by 2 and you get 18. Now add 2 to that. You get 20. Thats 5 to 1 (4:1) that you will make your flush. (20 goes into 100 five times). So it is 5-1 (4:1 or 1/5) that you will make it, period, and you will 35% of the time on the turn, 19% of the time by the river.

Now, same thing applies to straights, but here is where you are going wrong. Gap or no gap is the wrong way to look at it; use your outs! So, here are some figures:

You have an open end straight draw, then you have 8 outs to make your st8 (4 bottom of the st8 cards and 4 top of the st8 cards). You will make that 31.5% of the time by the turn (it's 2.17 - 1 against you) and 17.4% of the time by the river if you miss your turn card needed (4.75-1).

Now, using the rule of two, you see that it is 8x2+2=12. 12 will go into 100 a little more than 8 times. So, you are looking at 8-1 (7:1 or 1/8) hand odds that you will make it.

If you only need one card to make that st8, it is pretty dismal. That is only 4 outs. so, 4x2+2=10. You are looking at 10-1 (9:1 or 1/10) hand odds that you will make it. However, you often have more outs than that.
You hold: 5h6h
Flop: 6d7h9h

Lets count those outs with that hand and that flop;
2 6's for trips or quads
3 5's for two pair
3 8's (no heart) for a st8
1 8h for a flush/st8 flush
8 other hearts for a flush
___
17 outs. 17x2+2=36, so 2.77-1 (1:1.77 or 1/2.77) hand odds (100 / 36 = 2.77)
Now that you know the rule of two, use this chart to help out with the % chance of making it....

Please keep in mind, this is not pot odds. Typically you want your pot odds to be greater than your hand odds, or it is not worth a flat call. In the example I gave you (2.7-1 rounded) (should have been 1.7:1 making the rest of this paragraph sketchy) you would need that or better (3-1)(2-1) to justify calling. If you are not getting that, you might want to raise the bet in order to get there. If the pot is 50.00 and you are looking at a flop bet of 50, that means you have to call 50 to win 100. That is only 2-1. That could mean fold or raise, but that is another lesson entirely. I am pointing out to you now only how to calc hand odds and use with odds of making it overall to compare and learn.

Hope it helps.

You know why I answered this right? To burn it into my head. I am still learning so I like to repeat and write things out to help make it stick.

With this in mind I thought I should remind you that 1 in 5 is not the same as 5-1 or 5:1 it is of course 4:1 etc etc

 

[Michael Paler]

With this in mind I thought I should remind you that 1 in 5 is not the same as 5-1 or 5:1 it is of course 4:1 etc etc

Yes, I meant 5-1 against it happening if at a 20% chance overall; 5 times it misses, 1 time it hits. So the 4.11-1 odds are of you hitting that 1 time it will happen. 4.11 times you will not hit it, one time you will.

Right? IOW, the odds and percent are not the same thing; percent chance it happens overall, odds that you will see that happen this time.

9 outs, 37 cards left to help you, 37/9 = 4.11, so 4:1 odds. This is what you use against the pot odds and where I forgot to point that out and switch over. I was stuck on the overall percent chances of making the draw, which you cannot use alone against the pot odds, or you will get an incorrect figure.

Thanks for catching that.

 

[DunningKruger]

9 outs, 37 cards left to help you, 37/9 = 4.11, so 4:1 odds.

9 of 37 cards is more like 3 to 1. It's a ~24.3% probability of occurrence, and the odds against are 3.(1):1.

1:1 is a 50% chance. 4:1 against is a 20% chance. X:1 against is a 1/(X+1) × 100 percent chance.

 

[Samango]

Yeah this ^^^^ You're still doing it!

Yes, I meant 5-1 against it happening if at a 20% chance overall (no, 4-1 — the 20% is the 1, the other 80% is the 4); 5 times it misses (4 times it misses), 1 time it hits. (5 x 20% in total) So the 4.11-1 (this is another calc not related to 20%)odds are of you hitting that 1 time it will happen. 4.11 times you will not hit it, one time you will.

Right? IOW, the odds and percent are not the same thing; percent chance it happens overall, odds that you will see that happen this time. (The odds and the percentage are the same thing but expressed differently 20%= 4:1 (80:20) — (nothing to do with this time or overall)

9 outs, 37 cards left to help you, 37/9 = 4.11, so 4:1 odds. (for simplicity,4x9 is 36 so one of the 9's is the 1, the other three are the 3, (4 nines in total) in the ratio 3:1, not 4-1) This is what you use against the pot odds and where I forgot to point that out and switch over. I was stuck on the overall percent chances of making the draw, which you cannot use alone against the pot odds, or you will get an incorrect figure.

Thanks for catching that.

 

[Michael Paler]

9 of 37 cards is more like 3 to 1. It's a ~24.3% probability of occurrence, and the odds against are 3.(1):1.

1:1 is a 50% chance. 4:1 against is a 20% chance. X:1 against is a 1/(X+1) × 100 percent chance.

Yeah this ^^^^ You're still doing it!

Ok, I get it; what is bugging me is that the chart says it's 19.6%/4.11:1 but the 3:1 is....I mean, which do you use to bounce off the pot odds; 3:1 or 4.11:1? I have been using 4.11:1.

If the call is laying me 4:1 odds I can call. So a $50.00 bet into a 200 pot is giving me 4:1 on that call. If it's 3:1 I need to call a $66.00 bet into a 200 pot (3:1 pot odds)

 

[Samango]

Ok, I get it; what is bugging me is that the chart says it's 19.6%/4.11:1 but the 3:1 is....I mean, which do you use to bounce off the pot odds; 3:1 or 4.11:1? I have been using 4.11:1.

If the call is laying me 4:1 odds I can call. So a $50.00 bet into a 200 pot is giving me 4:1 on that call. If it's 3:1 I need to call a $66.00 bet into a 200 pot (3:1 pot odds)

OK the chart is correct, 9 outs gives you 19.6% (lets call it 20%) 2&4 rule also gives you that (9x2)+2= 20. This is 4:1 (80:20) for a total of 100%

The problem arises when you have used the spurious 37/9. This is not how the 4:1 is calculated.
Once you brought it up we have pointed out that 9 outs out of 37 gives a different result. (~3:1)
But this is not actually connected to the '9 outs = 20%' because you don't have 9 outs out of 37!

You have only seen 2 cards in your hand and 4 on the board (with just the river to come) so the 9 outs are among the remaining 46 cards (even if they have been dealt)
(9+9+9+9) : (9) = 45 in total and as you can see that is 4:1
The one remaining card of the 46 is the reason that it is actually 19.6% and 4.1:1

46/9 will give you 5.11 and the odds are 1 in 5.11, but that is not the same as 1:5.11 (or 1-5) instead you have to take the '1' out of the total and compare it with the remainder 1:4.11

It may be easier to see this if you think of how '1 in 3' is actually 1:2

Hope this helps

 

[Michael Paler]

OK the chart is correct, 9 outs gives you 19.6% (lets call it 20%) 2&4 rule also gives you that (9x2)+2= 20. This is 4:1 (80:20) for a total of 100%

The problem arises when you have used the spurious 37/9. This is not how the 4:1 is calculated.
Once you brought it up we have pointed out that 9 outs out of 37 gives a different result. (~3:1)
But this is not actually connected to the '9 outs = 20%' because you don't have 9 outs out of 37!

You have only seen 2 cards in your hand and 4 on the board (with just the river to come) so the 9 outs are among the remaining 46 cards (even if they have been dealt)
(9+9+9+9) : (9) = 45 in total and as you can see that is 4:1
The one remaining card of the 46 is the reason that it is actually 19.6% and 4.1:1

46/9 will give you 5.11 and the odds are 1 in 5.11, but that is not the same as 1:5.11 (or 1-5) instead you have to take the '1' out of the total and compare it with the remainder 1:4.11

It may be easier to see this if you think of how '1 in 3' is actually 1:2

Hope this helps

Yes, I really appreciate you taking the time. So am I right if using my pot odds vs the chart odds with 9 outs to a flush? (God, I hope that is right; I do not want your head to explode trying to help me, lol)

 

[Samango]

So am I right if using my pot odds vs the chart odds with 9 outs to a flush?

Yep the chart is right. and so is the 2&4 of course
If you look again at the quote (of you) in my post #13 (and the edits) you'll see that the main problem you're having seems to be confusing 1 in 5 with 1:5 ('1 chance in five' is 1 time wins, 4 times loses — 1:4 (5 in total), and also with seeing the relationship between percentages and ratios i.e 20% = 20:80 = 1:4
(and e.g. 25% = 25:75 = 1:3)

 

[Michael Paler]

Yep the chart is right. and so is the 2&4 of course
If you look again at the quote (of you) in my post #13 (and the edits) you'll see that the main problem you're having seems to be confusing 1 in 5 with 1:5 ('1 chance in five' is 1 time wins, 4 times loses — 1:4 (5 in total), and also with seeing the relationship between percentages and ratios i.e 20% = 20:80 = 1:4
(and e.g. 25% = 25:75 = 1:3)

Yes, I got it now. That is my problem using computers to do everything for me in my work, I gloss over stuff without thinking. I just do not want to do that for poker or break out a calculator, so I have to get un-rusted doing these types of manual calcs in my head. I just never use this type of math or hardly at all; in the computer drafting that I do, the program figures out calcs for view ratios automatically now. 1 model space view and 1/4 paper space view of that = a listed 1:4 ratio. But a 1 in 4 chance is 1:3, not 1:4. This is poker, not AutoCad, lol.

Thanks for all your help.

 

[curtinsea]

20% = 1 in 5
20% = 4 to 1 against (4/5 you lose, 1/5 you win)

 

[Chemist]

Yeah this ^^^^ You're still doing it!

 

[Paragon]

Its roughly a 33% chance, not counting the flush cards held by other players.

 

[Samango]

Its roughly a 33% chance, not counting the flush cards held by other players.

LOL, I'm not exactly sure what you're answering here but if it's the op's question 'Odds of suited hole cards make a flush by the river, you're a little wide of the mark
As has been stated several times above, the odds are about 6.4%