Understanding Pot Odds and Expected Value (Day 5 Course Discussion)

[Debi]

This is the last of the fundamental concepts you need to have a good understanding of before delving into strategy.

On day 5 Collin will help you calculate pot odds and will explain expected value.

If you have not yet read Day 5 and watched the video for Day 5 - take a few minutes now to do that and then come back here to discuss it:

Understanding Pot Odds and Expected Value

How did you do on the quiz? Hopefully now you have a better understanding of these 2 concepts - but if you have questions you are in the right place to ask them! Collin and Katie will be checking this thread to answer them and discuss these topics further with you.

 

[onecardsteve]

I have a better understanding of the equity, I know this was for pot odds, just mixed in the card odds aspect also.
I always use the 4-2 rule for card odds , need to add pot odds into the mix. Just need to get my brain to work faster when playing live to calculate the equity based on card odds .

 

[Polytarp]

This video seems spot-on for limit poker where someone can chase down a card with constant three-betting eliminating players with smaller bank-rolls. Being counterfeited always feels like getting sucker-punched..especially when a nice honey-pot was built and you have everyone right where you want them..to put them all-in...then the last card comes up and your two-pair, trips, small straight, boat...etc..becomes worthless as the last card makes someone else`s hand a small treasure.

Building a honey-pot with a nice trappy play feels nice when it works but very bad when it doesn`t..and it may take an hour or so before another opportunity can present itself. Knowing and using pot equity/EV so that you can winnow the weaker players into traps works successfully only so many times. Maximizing +EV is contingent on one`s bankroll...having the right numbers doesn`t mean you`re going to win but it does help to understand the fantastic odds the other person surmounted to beat you. Allied to this video is choosing which kinds of EV`s to bet into because if a big stack is going to put you all in you need the best numbers to survive (this works conversely when you`re the big stack working the table hard).

 

[Debi]

You guys are doing great - already on Day 5!

 

[Luvart]

Finished Day #5.

An important concept that was analyzed very well in the course.

My answers:

i)Pot Odds: 930$/375$ = about 2.5/1

ii)Odds in percentages: about 29%

iii)Villain completes from the SB, so his range is pretty wide here. He checks the flop and bets 1/3 of the pot on the turn. He can have a mediocre made hand, like A6, K6, J6s, K9, some bottom pairs or underpairs, etc. He could have all Aces too, Broadways that haven't hit with the Q, hands like J8, 107s that give him a gutshot draw, plenty of random low-tier suited hands, and he wants to finish the hand and take the pot right here. His ~66% of the pot bet on the paired river is a bit tricky. He could have hit his random 9x hands. We need to win the pot at least 3 out of 10 times. I don't have a clear answer here to be honest. I think I would muck my hand.

Tomorrow with Day #6.

 

[Ronaldo7]

Nice one, railing!

 

[natelearnspoker]

Super useful video that I try to apply when figuring out when to call/bet. It helps make the outcome seem more rational and helps calm me down from tilt. I find that if I think about the implied odds Villain is giving me, I can make the appropriate lay down or call.

Really appreciate the walk through of comparing actual odds with implied odds. I do have a question about its practicality though. Besides the flush draw odds with four suited cards on the flop, how practical is it to calculate actual odds? I know CC has the chart with the outs and odds, but it’s a lot of numbers to memorize.

 

[Nafor]

I'm positively surprised about the quality of this course. Sure, there's nothing ground breaking or new, but still it managed to create a 'Heureka Moment' for me.

That lousy unpaired A3o actually wins any 22-88 pocket pair on that particular board.

 

[jeanpierre1279]

Day 5-Understanding Pot Odds and Expected Value

I recognize that this was a resource that did not use much because the speed of action and our willingness to always look at our assets sometimes prevented us from putting more chips in a play.


But the question that should be asked is: How big is the pot?

If you look at the size of the pot combined with the concept of pot odds, mainly in the middle and final stages of a tournament, it makes a lot of sense to call even with reasonable hands when in other situations the player would certainly be tighter.

Regarding the Expected Value concept, I believe that the villain's behavior should also be analyzed because, although it is cheap to ask for a flop call, but if the player is aggressive he can increase a lot to make the call and even having a reasonable expected value can compromise expectations growth within the game.

Good luck and lets move foward.:aetsch:

 

[Collin Moshman]

Glad to hear that Nafor, and thanks everyone!

Nate, we'll absolutely show you how to use this process in-game as the course progresses. It seems overwhelming at first to everyone, including us for sure. But don't worry, you will become very good at it with some study and practice

 

[PsychoVas]

Pot odds are the basis of +EV moves. In tournaments though, especially when there is no re-entry or re-buy, stack sizes and leftover stack sizes have to be factored in the equation too, right?

 

[M13A13]

Pot Odd, and EV, help a lot in tournaments, the bet amount if I'm going to call or fold.
In tournaments many times in certain situations I have completely ignored these concepts because many players bluff over the limit.

 

[ronn6583]

I thought about this key point for a long time.
Given the pot odds, do I have the necessary equity that I need against its range for a profitable call here with my hand?
I came to the conclusion that before that I did not understand the essence.
The range on the small blind is 35%.
For example: 22 +, A2s +, K3s +, Q6s +, J7s +, T7s +, 97s +, 87s, A4o +, K8o +, Q9o +, J9o +, T9o
equity A3 is 45%
Pot odds: 930/375 2.48: 1
Percent You Need to Win:100 / 3.48 = 28.7%
45%> 28.7%
Let's see what combinations beat us: 9-2 hands, 10 10-2, Q-2, JJ-2, KK-2, AA-1, 66-1
TOTAL: 12 hands that beat us.
Given that the stack is 6,000 chips, calling 375 chips is profitable. This is an easy call.

 

[cferdi]

Loving this

I found this lesson so much easier than the one on equity - and I try to use it at the tables because I can easily understand it and calculate it so much easier (if only approximate) in my head at the table either online or live. So once I get the hang of equity maybe my toolbox will be a lot fuller and work even better for me.

I have always been more of a tournament player than a cash player, but since joining CardsChat; and now with this amazing course teaching me even more new concepts, I am finding even my tournament play improving! Still playing micro, but with all the allinners, fish, maniacs and every other colour of player there in abundance, I find it an excellent training ground to hone my skills - Looking forward to tomorrow's lesson

 

[Collin Moshman]

Pot odds are the basis of +EV moves. In tournaments though, especially when there is no re-entry or re-buy, stack sizes and leftover stack sizes have to be factored in the equation too, right?

Great question -- generally no they don't. You only factor in stack sizes when considering ICM. From a pure pot odds perspective, you don't need to worry about leftover stacks / who covers who.

 

[Collin Moshman]

I thought about this key point for a long time.
Given the pot odds, do I have the necessary equity that I need against its range for a profitable call here with my hand?
I came to the conclusion that before that I did not understand the essence.
The range on the small blind is 35%.
For example: 22 +, A2s +, K3s +, Q6s +, J7s +, T7s +, 97s +, 87s, A4o +, K8o +, Q9o +, J9o +, T9o
equity A3 is 45%
Pot odds: 930/375 2.48: 1
Percent You Need to Win:100 / 3.48 = 28.7%
45%> 28.7%
Let's see what combinations beat us: 9-2 hands, 10 10-2, Q-2, JJ-2, KK-2, AA-1, 66-1
TOTAL: 12 hands that beat us.
Given that the stack is 6,000 chips, calling 375 chips is profitable. This is an easy call.

Getting much better than 2:1 odds against a top 35% range, the call with A3 is definitely correct, nice work!

 

[ammje]

Another excellent course that I will have to read twice, thank you very much Collin.
Now you can learn a couple of new concepts, which will help me improve my game, but without a doubt I will have to read and watch the video a few more times, you always have to study, to keep improving and not forget what you have learned.

 

[wildjoker68]

Pot Odds are very important in Live Games, but don't think for a moment that will work for online poker, not with 70% of the boards hitting an ace or a king by the river, and nearly 80% of the boards pairing, and you can bet your bottom dollar, if the board don't pair, there will be a straight, or a flush 80 to 90% of the time, even though, a Live Game, the board will only pair 43% of the time, and an Ace or a King will hit the board around 52% of the time. and most hands in NLH are usually won by a pair, but you won't see pairs winning most hands online. so leave the math and skill out. you have to go by gut feelings. and that's a sad truth. I just played on Global Poker and watched the board pair 6 hands in a row, the other day on America's Cardroom, it paired 7 times in row. it's almost comical, but one thing that's it's not" is Random"

 

[redboy23]

Day 1 - Chapter 5

This was tough catching up so that I can move with the masses.

While I going through this I decided to play a .02 cent tourney on the side. I am pleased to report that I turned 2 cents into $4.40 ! I won - catch the final hand here:

https://www.boomplayer.com/33168211_1ECD0BAB95

It felt really good to have over 1, 000, 000 in chips in front of me.

Now on to the video response:

P1 - pot odds are 2.5 : 1. Hero has to bet $375 to a pot of $930 to
win $1305

P2 - Hero was to win 29% of the time to make it profitable to call.

P3 - Absolutely call. I have seen split pots in this situation more
than I care to remember. Even bluffs with and Ace trying to
represent a full house to get others to fold.

I enjoyed this chapter, especially as I won a tourney on the side while going through it!

I endorse this book. Hey, I am already a winning player on day 1 on chapter 5 - probably coincidental though. If I win again, I will let you guys know.

lol..lol...!!

 

[AndyGamesPoker]

This is one of the concepts I still have the hardest time to fully grasp. I still need to watch this lesson a few times I think to fluently be able to do this. That being said, Colin's process of explaining it has really helped me to understand it compared to previous courses I have taken.

 

[karmakoumas]

You need to watch this video at least two time.
it's not simple to calculate the percentage .
i think next courses will help to include the concept of pot odds and EV in realtime play because you are not going to put a calculator next to you.
i think that will work better with practice.

:icon_scra

 

[armadillo999]

EV is What? Part 2

If pot odds is greater than EV you should always call, unless near the bubble.

 

[freddydr87]

espected Value more knonw as Ev is everything for me in poker,poker is a strategy mental game but is very linked to probabilities,and the Ev allwais tell you iff you are in the wrong or right way,i dont care about the result off a hand or the result in 1 million hands for me is more important the EV bb/100 tham the real bb/100 iff i am in -2bb/100 but Ev sais 10bb/100 i will keep playing the same way.

 

[BentleyBoy]

A great video and chapter to easily get your head around pot odds and EV. Looking forward to how this develops as the 30 days go by to work it into everything that I will learn.

Thanks Guys, Great Job.

Damo

 

[Collin Moshman]

Thanks guys, and don't worry if this one is taking some time It's a tough concept at first, but you'll definitely understand it well with a little time and practice.