Poker Variance and Bankroll Management (Day 20 Course Discussion)

[Katie Dozier]

I'm still having trouble using any of the links in the eBook. What's that other calculator tool for cash game variance?

I’m sorry to hear that you’re having trouble using the links—just want to make sure you mean that the links are working on a literal level but that you’re having difficulties with the specifics of using the softwares? (If what you mean is literally getting the links to link to where they’re supposed to please just let us know in addition to how you’re accessing the links/what kind of device you’re using for the course so we can be of more help )

Assuming what you mean is that you’re having trouble with the learning curve inherent in using software—I can totally relate and I wish I knew a trick to lessen the (sometimes quite steep) learning curve! Learning new poker software always takes me real time and one thing that always helps me is looking for tutorial videos of the software either on the website for the software itself or on YouTube. Wish I could recommend you another cash game variance calculator tool but being a tournament player, it’s unfortunately not something I’m familiar with enough to make a solid recommendation on.

 

[monkey23]

bankroll management.

ok..this will sound harsh..if you are a losing player, as most players are, brm is pointless...you will go broke no matter what stakes you play. Just play what you like, and enjoy yourselves. Between reloads, you may wish to think about why you are a losing player, and how you can change this. Remember the words of Einstein.." To do the same thing over and over again, and expect different results is a definition of insanity".

if you are a winning player...even if only 1bb/100, then a brm regime is essential. My own brm regime would be described as insanity by most players. I will happily play a cash game with a bankroll well below the 'standard' 100 buy ins. But very rarely below 10-15 buy ins. I would rather go down a level, and build back up.

My own sentiments are that one should play the highest stakes that one can beat on a regular basis.

The thought of purgatory in 1/2nlhe until one has a 100x roll to play 2/5...ie $500..is enough to send most folks to the nutty farm. get out as soon as you can...escape into 5/10 as soon as the game is within / on the edge of your comfort zone. If you can beat 2/5, you can probably hold your own in 5/10 with a $150 roll. Avoid the all in button unless you are very sure you are well ahead or have the nuts.

If your table money is 'scared money', you will lose it very quickly...move down until your money is no longer 'scared'.

Play multi table sngs, rather than 2000+ entrant mtts...think variance.

Separate your bankroll in 2.... roll for cash games...separate roll for tourneys...only play large field mtts with money deliberately set aside for this purpose from cash game winnings...large field mtts are a luxury to the micro-roll player.

If you lose more than 3 buy ins in one session, and your plays were objectively questionable...sit out for 24 hours...do something else...think about your mistakes...and try not to make them again...often easier said than done.

You will only get better by playing players better than you...and good tuition costs money..it is an investment to recoup later...with dividends.

and read the writing in bold, below.

 

[Collin Moshman]

I'm still having trouble using any of the links in the eBook. What's that other calculator tool for cash game variance?

Sorry you're having trouble with the eBook links.

Here's the cash game variance tool that's also free and works similarly to the tournament one we talk about in the book.

 

[birdman666]

Sorry you're having trouble with the eBook links.

Here's the cash game variance tool that's also free and works similarly to the tournament one we talk about in the book.

Hyperlinks also dont work with me, none of them. It must be related with the pdf conversion. Could you resubmit the ebook with the links working?

 

[Collin Moshman]

Thanks for the heads-up. I'm also unable to click on hyperlinks currently and will ask the CardsChat team to take a look at it.

Sorry for the inconvenience in the meanwhile to anyone else having problems with this.

 

[imnoobpoker]

Bankroll management is so important. Friend of my told me about poker, so because of him I started playing. However my friend was about -1000$ in loss over 5 years of playing and he still played all kind of games, 5$ 2.20$ and when he made a big win on one night, he started with a much higher game. At the end, he was 1000$ in losses.

My motivation when I started playing was, donated 1 time and see how I double this up. Started with 10$ and ended after half year playing 80$, also many thanks to the Cardschat freerolls.

Point here is, and this is also one of my life lessons, a bankroll is so important in what you do in your life. It changed my world on how I do things.

Thank you for amazing class today! Let's go to day 21.

 

[xOneCoolHandx]

Quiz

More because you are going to win less often even with a higher ROI. Not that I have to worry about variance...I broke up with her (I think Katie read this): https://www.cardschat.com/forum/general-poker-13/a-breakup-letter-variance-471099/

 

[Katie Dozier]

More because you are going to win less often even with a higher ROI. Not that I have to worry about variance...I broke up with her (I think Katie read this): https://www.cardschat.com/forum/general-poker-13/a-breakup-letter-variance-471099/

Haha yes, that was an awesome letter you wrote—I enjoyed it! [emoji38]

 

[eberetta1]

Collin, I am not the best at odds charts and all. At the 12:15 mark in the lesson it looked like you really wanted to pay 10 percent of the 100 players, but the primedope calculator only allowed you to enter 7, 9, or 12 percent of the players paid. You entered 9 pct for the example. After entering the 9 percent of players paid, could you have changed the number of players from 100 to 90, to get the same 10 percent payout ratio.

 

[barbados]

Poker accounting is a really important thing. And to become a professional - accounting should be kept in order.

 

[akuna]

Hyperlinks also work with me,thx

 

[mariussica88]

Finished Day 20...10 to go

Even though I haven't deposit any money in like 3 years, I can not remember how many times I lost my bankroll because of poor BM. This lesson is interesting to me because I didn't knew that there are tools to calculate your tournament Variance, but the new version is more difficult to understand then the one shown in this video.

 

[Oranaro]

Very nice tool, didn't know about it, I was doing my calculations on my own, I've checked the cash game variance tool, very helpfull, thank you!

 

[BetterThanAvgButNotByMuch]

Last lesson reviewed was W3, D17, need to do 18, 19, 21

Week 3, Day 20 Poker Variance and Poker Bankroll

"ROI: Return on Investment= Percent Profit Per Game"

"ITM: In the Money = Percent of Tournaments You Cash"

Things that reduce variance:
"Your skill or your edge at a game will the limit the downswing"
"Flatter Payout Structures( ie less people in tourn and/ or greater % paid more even amounts)"

Collin says its very common to have downswings of 25 buyins or even 50 buyins in tourns.
Yeah, to me losing 50 buyins would be a uber sign that you're not ready for that level. lol I've never experienced anything like this during the Poker Boom but the guy is a pro and literally wrote the book, so. . .. .

Best advice given in the lesson "is to move down if things aren't working for you and accept the variance as part of playing".

Collin introduces the Primedope Tournament Variance Calculator
So with Primedope Tournament Variance Calculator you plug in the Fee, ROI etc and it gives you a projection of the variance that should happen should you play a lot more sngs and tourns based on the info you plugged in.

So if you only played like 100 tourns at a certain level then it will show you how you could be up/down with the info you provided by extrapolating your results into a much larger amount of tourns/sngs instead of playing all of them blindly and not having a clue what type of result you could expect.

Its a forecaster and Collin says its not 100% accurate but it will give folks a clue without having to play so many sngs or tourns and it seems important because you can set goals off it and see if that level is really a good idea for you to play.

What I really like and anyone can understand is the "BANKROLL AND RISK OF RUIN" feature that gives people a good idea of the bankroll needed to play SNGs or tourns. It will give you an idea of how much you need to overcome variance and makes it very simple to understand your odds of "taking shots" with a limited bankroll.

Term: the LONG RUN is the amount of tourns or sngs you have to play to show a profit.
Higher variance means you need to play a lot more games to reach the Long Run,


EBOOK TIDBITS:
"The larger your edge, the smaller your downswings will be and the lower the bankroll you require."

"Our advice is to start off playing as low stakes as possible until you're confident you're beating the games". I say can almost cash at will. To me it makes zero sense to take shot after shot at a game to fed your ego proving you can play at a higher level when get money at the lower levels easily with little risk to your bankroll.

So another good lesson and the variance calculator is a big help to helping understand how much folks should have to play a certain tourn or sng.

 

[Chase]

Another interesting lesson that brings some hard reality to the forefront.

"Swings are vital" - makes sense, can't win if others don't lose. The trick is to be in the former group, not the latter.

"You will absolutely drop 100 buy-ins from time to time" - not there yet, thanks for the heads up!

Went to the Primedope website, the folks that provide the Primedope Tournament Variance Calculator that took up most of today's lesson. Interesting to see that GGPoker is one of the softest poker sites and pokerstars and Americas Cardroom are the hardest.

 

[Atararo14]

Finished Day 20

This course is essential for any poker player who hopes to win on the long run.

Bankroll management is something to be applied without fail, it's exactly like the capital of a company.

A bankroll of 100 buy-in is the minimum, this is recommended for those who play tournaments of less than (200 to 250 players) where the variance is not violent. On the other hand, if the chosen tournaments are of several hundreds of players or thousands of players, in this case 200 to 300 buy in is necessary because the variance is more violent in these tournaments.

The 2nd factor that impacts the variance is the ROI, when the ROI is high the variance is reduced. To increase the ROI you have to work on the game to have a good technical level.

 

[Eduard0Felipe]

Variation, interesting, I imagined that a bankroll with 100 buy-in would be more than enough, maybe even less, but no, anything can happen and it's always good to be aware, isn't it!?

20/30.

 

[Debi]

Finished Day 20

This course is essential for any poker player who hopes to win on the long run.

Bankroll management is something to be applied without fail, it's exactly like the capital of a company.

A bankroll of 100 buy-in is the minimum, this is recommended for those who play tournaments of less than (200 to 250 players) where the variance is not violent. On the other hand, if the chosen tournaments are of several hundreds of players or thousands of players, in this case 200 to 300 buy in is necessary because the variance is more violent in these tournaments.

The 2nd factor that impacts the variance is the ROI, when the ROI is high the variance is reduced. To increase the ROI you have to work on the game to have a good technical level.

Excellent points. I see a lot of challenge threads where players are going from 0 - $5000 or some huge amount. Would love to see more where they take one step at a time.

0 to $50 is a great first step.

 

[Marshmalo1994]

I've been having this doubt lately, if I play in different platforms at the same time, should I consider the total BR or each platform BR considering the volume of play in each one, to make a good management?
Or it's simply my choice? 🤔

I didn't reach to this lesson, so if it's answered there, you can kindly invite me to keep reading 😅

 

[Andyreas]

I've been having this doubt lately, if I play in different platforms at the same time, should I consider the total BR or each platform BR considering the volume of play in each one, to make a good management?
Or it's simply my choice? 🤔

I didn't reach to this lesson, so if it's answered there, you can kindly invite me to keep reading 😅

Good question.

I don't think this question is answered in this lesson.

But I'm in the same situation and I usually apply the BRM for each platform.

I think it's definitely important if your BRs are varying quite a bit. For example if you have 500/400/100, you have a total BR or 1k, so you could play (small) 10$ MTTs but it definitely can be dangerous at the 100 site since it's 10% of your BR there.

On the other hand, I can imagine you could apply a BRM for the total sites, if you're willing to transfer in between them, if the BR on one site requires it. 🤔
But it could be quite a struggle lol

 

[fundiver199]

I've been having this doubt lately, if I play in different platforms at the same time, should I consider the total BR or each platform BR considering the volume of play in each one, to make a good management?
Or it's simply my choice? 🤔

If its reasonably easy and cheap to transfer money between sites, then there is no need to keep a separate bankroll on each site.

 

[Debi]

I've been having this doubt lately, if I play in different platforms at the same time, should I consider the total BR or each platform BR considering the volume of play in each one, to make a good management?
Or it's simply my choice? 🤔

I didn't reach to this lesson, so if it's answered there, you can kindly invite me to keep reading 😅

That is a great question. I think it is easier to manage if you stick to 1 or 2 sites for real money play and managing your bankroll - but I would consider it all one bankroll personally. That is how I did it when I played at PokerStars and FullTilt. I had the most money on PS - but played the same game levels at FT.

 

[fundiver199]

That is how I did it when I played at PokerStars and FullTilt. I had the most money on PS - but played the same game levels at FT.

Considering what happened to FullTilt it was lucky, it was not the other way around

 

[Debi]

Considering what happened to FullTilt it was lucky, it was not the other way around

Yep - when the shit hit the fan I had $7500 on PS and $2500 on FT. I got my PS money back within 3 weeks but didn't get the FT back for years.

 

[Marshmalo1994]

Yep - when the shit hit the fan I had $7500 on PS and $2500 on FT. I got my PS money back within 3 weeks but didn't get the FT back for years.

Wow, that's terrible. I always wondered if accounts holders were able to cash out