Royal-flush twice in a row. What is the probability?

[BelFish]

The probability of getting a royal flush in Texas Hold'em if people didn't fold preflop and postflop some hands would be:

P = 4*C(5 of 5)*C(2 of 47)/C(7 of 52)=4324/133784560=0.0000323 or 0.00323%

Taking into account folds, we will roughly estimate this probability as a number of 0.00001, or 1 time for every 100,000 hands.

Then the probability of getting a 2 royal flush in the next 2 hands will be equal to 1 in 10 billion hands.

And here is that complex formula for calculating at a distance of N hands (for calculation in excel):

A1 is P
A2 is K
A3 is N
A6 is (p), or the probability of the event for the repeat series we are looking for.

A4=1+(1-A1)*A1^A2+(A2+1)*(1-A1)^2*A1^(2*A2)

A5=((1-A1*A4)/((A2+1-A2*A4)*(1-A1)))/A5^(A3+1)

A6=1-A5

Here is an example of calculating this formula for playing roulette: the probability that 11 or more times in a row will be one color, for example, red at a distance of 2000 games, is 47%, and for a distance of 5000 games this probability will be equal to 80%

Here we substitute K=11, P=18/37 into the formula and calculate for cases N=2000 and N=5000

K is the number of repetitions of the event in a row in a series of N games, and P is the probability of this event.

Similarly, using the same formula, you can calculate the probability of getting a royal flush 2 times in a row at any distance. To do this, you need to substitute K=2, P=0.00001 into the formula and see what happens for different values of N (1000, 10000, 100000, 10000000)

 

[0546474]

I have been playing poker for money since 2015 and during this time I have collected a Royal flash combination many times, but I have never seen this combination collected twice in a row !!! This is indeed a very rare case!

 

[azteca6]

I never believe it once a month and if you're lucky: D

 

[Recreationalplayer]

Its a good fantasy to be in awe when you make such hands.

But most of the winnings come from Top pair Top Kicker and set mining.

In the long run that's what matters.

 

[IronMike9000]

When i shuffle the cards i get dealt the royal flush every time, however from my experience other players start to get suspicious around the 6th royal flush in a row

 

[Djon25]

Poker rooms are greedy, they could give some prizes for the collected royal flush.

 

[SL-247]

Life is so short that the chance like this will never happen.

 

[luckyfish98]

Royal-flush twice in a row. What is the probability? but losing 10 years from a place is also not possible, that is the positive, but the negative happens much more in poker games

 

[aissam18]

To be honest you can get hit by a meteor than to have royal flush 2 times in a row

 

[nakiesQUensyyy]

I think about zero if 2 in a row, I won’t believe if a person catches him, I never saw how much I play and never caught it myself

 

[iceheart888]

In the early years of online poker, it was difficult to see it twice in one year, now there is nothing surprising

 

[NightStalker]

I prefer to win the lottery.

 

[andron205]

very very small

 

[PokerSober1985]

I've had a Royal Flush twice once in a live tournament game and once in an online game. In the live game I got 10 K spades and this was really early on in the tournament too. The flop was J A of spades and the 8 of hearts so I already had the flush and a Royal Flush chance on the flop and there was still me and 3 other people in the hand with me to act last. There was a raise, a call, a call and I also called then the turn card was the Q spades I literally had to do a double look at my cards and I remember shaking but thinking I couldn't give anything away either. My mate was sat next to me on the table and I nudged his leg under the table and slightly lifted my cards in his direction (He wasn't in the hand he'd folded pre-flop) I remember he looked, looked away then he must have realised what he'd seen and his head spun back around to me I remember kicking him under the table lol. Everyone checked to me so I bet a little and a all 3 called I wanted to maximise the profit as it would be pointless getting a Royal flush and not getting paid out with it. The river was an 8 of diamonds and all 3 checked to me so again I put out a bet of half of the pot and 2 folded but the last guy facing me raised me and went all in which was music to my ears. I called and he flipped over his cards to reveal A 8 and had hit a full house 8 over A I turned my cards over and his face dropped it took some people a moment to realise what had happened as they thought I just had a flush and then it sunk in no one could believe it. There were 60 people in that tournament with the winner getting an all expense paid trip to Vegas and entry into the wsop main event and unfortunately I finished 3rd. I went to the final table as chip leader and went all in down to a the final 3 me v 1 other guy I had Q Q he had 10 10 and he hit a 10 on the turn. I lost a lot of chips and pretty much went on tilt after that and became short stacked getting blinded out I was absolutely gutted. The guy who had the trip 10 won the tournament, went to Vegas and went out on the first day doing absolutely terrible. I sometimes wonder what could have been this was in 2007. I got the Royal Flush online on pokerstars in about 2015 however it's not known as 'Jokerstars' for nothing. I know a live Royal Flush is almost 1 in a 700,000 chance of happening but online and especially on Pokerstars it's probably a 1 in 4 chance lol.

 

[Magallaneroy]

The probability of that happened is like 0.00004, or something like that, I never heard of that happening.

 

[dienesantosc]

In today's match, there is no bronze..

 

[dienesantosc]

It wasn't two in a row but among the times I play this was the first time in 1 month hahah

 

[dienesantosc]

In fact, it's the first time since I've played poker. In my case, it was the first time

 

[valanddon]

Go buy a lotto ticket.

 

[LUKADONCICMVP]

no idea the odds of that happen but must be lower than 1% for sure

 

[NotADonk]

Twice in a row is something incredible. Yes, it is possible, but the chances tend to zero. In my entire short career, I collected a royal flush 3 times

I have had a few royal flushes. I'm not sure exactly how many, more than 5 but fewer than 10 although most of them were playing omaha where it is more likely.

 

[cwdignus]

I don't remember if I've ever gotten a Royal Flush. If I have, it was in games that weren't very important.

 

[Sparta77]

I've been playing poker for 5 years and I've had a royal streak once, two times in a row... unbelievable, but in poker, anything can happen.