Herkstwin
Legend
Bronze Level
Sounds about right.
VMVarga
Rock Star
Bronze Level
You should specify the estimated number of hands, or hours played, rather than just one year of play. Some people play a smaller number of hands over a one year period, while others might play 10, 15, or 20 times the number of hands in the same year.
Bad runs, or variance, just means that over a relatively short period of time and low number of hands played there are a significant number of hands where you are a big favorite to win but end up losing anyway.
The more hands you play overall, the less this will affect you. However, on any given day, in any given session, you are at the mercy of the luck of the cards.
If you flip a coin twice, sometimes it will be heads twice, or tails twice. But the more you flip the coin, the more the 50/50 odds will take over. Over the course of flipping the coin ten million times, you are going to get these odd stretches of all heads or all tails. The coin might land on heads 20 times in a row, even though the given odds are still 50/50. That 20 times in a row landing on heads is just like your long run of bad beats. You should only be losing a 4 to 1 bet once every four times, but sometimes you lose it four out of four times, or ten out of ten times. Those are outliers, not the norm. So just keep on playing through it and do not let it put you on tilt.
That being said, if someone is playing almost every day and has been on a 12 month long slump, there is a good chance that there is more to it than just bad luck. Like others have said, it is certainly possible to have a 12 month long losing streak, but the probability of it happening is very low, just like the coin flip landing on heads 20 times example. You have to flip the coin several million times, or something absurd, just to see it land on heads 20 times in a row. Likewise, you would need to play a massive number of hands to ever see a run of bad cards lasting that long.
Bad runs, or variance, just means that over a relatively short period of time and low number of hands played there are a significant number of hands where you are a big favorite to win but end up losing anyway.
The more hands you play overall, the less this will affect you. However, on any given day, in any given session, you are at the mercy of the luck of the cards.
If you flip a coin twice, sometimes it will be heads twice, or tails twice. But the more you flip the coin, the more the 50/50 odds will take over. Over the course of flipping the coin ten million times, you are going to get these odd stretches of all heads or all tails. The coin might land on heads 20 times in a row, even though the given odds are still 50/50. That 20 times in a row landing on heads is just like your long run of bad beats. You should only be losing a 4 to 1 bet once every four times, but sometimes you lose it four out of four times, or ten out of ten times. Those are outliers, not the norm. So just keep on playing through it and do not let it put you on tilt.
That being said, if someone is playing almost every day and has been on a 12 month long slump, there is a good chance that there is more to it than just bad luck. Like others have said, it is certainly possible to have a 12 month long losing streak, but the probability of it happening is very low, just like the coin flip landing on heads 20 times example. You have to flip the coin several million times, or something absurd, just to see it land on heads 20 times in a row. Likewise, you would need to play a massive number of hands to ever see a run of bad cards lasting that long.
Joe
99.98% Kiln dried
Bronze Level
Having had a two or three month downswing myself, I can confirm that length of time!
If you analyse the play and are honest with yourself the difference between running bad and playing bad are stark.
It's pretty easy to identify if it was unlucky or bad play.
The thought of running bad for twelve months or longer is not pleasant! [emoji1]
If you analyse the play and are honest with yourself the difference between running bad and playing bad are stark.
It's pretty easy to identify if it was unlucky or bad play.
The thought of running bad for twelve months or longer is not pleasant! [emoji1]
AKQ
Legend
Bronze Level
AKQ
Legend
Bronze Level
just because the math says out of 100,000 hands it should happen 80% doesn't translate well to each individual in real life some will win way more and some will win way less variance is a @#$%@#%^
:ciao:
fa1920
Visionary
Silver Level
You would have to evaluate all your actions in order to determine if you are a bad poker player or have a bad streak, that someone lose 3 million dollars just as Isildur1 did sometime, does not mean he is a bad player. Many things may have happened, that's why it's important to have complete information, with that data we do not do anything
Poker Orifice
And Still...
Platinum Level
Probably never.
We do have the power to end it though.... but we need to be willing to put in the work.
D
dehzao
Rising Star
Bronze Level
Eternally.
Let's face it, it is a game of chance and luck, period.
Have you ever watched some major pro players streaming? Have you ever observed the way someone always have KK when they have AA, and how their Aces hold? Or how their AQ beats AK smoothly all the time?
It is a game of luck and some people born with it, others not. There is not another answer.
I am fully aware that this is not rational, but you will only see this as an absolute truth once it happens to you.
Positive variance still exists. I tried many times moving down in stakes once a severe crushing bad run came, more than once actually.
In those lowers limits I ran incredibly well and thought: "Well, finally the bad run is over" just to move up again and have an even worse bad run.
What I am saying is that some people have bad luck when it doesn't matter too much, against players with shortstacks in tournaments and when their stack couldn't be hurt too much, when it doesn't make a major difference, or even they have everytime they play a tournament below their buy-in, only to have a massive good run in the higher stakes. THIS IS ALSO LUCK, CHANCE AND POSITIVE VARIANCE WORKING IN FAVOR OF THEM.
I hate to bring it to you, but that its PURE LUCK. When variance works against you in lower limits and massive does the job for you in the higher stakes, this is luck.
So, bottom line, there is nothing you can do. No skill involved. You can take a 2 year break and it will be the same because poker hates you. And if you move down you will run good, waste your positive variance and be crushed again when big money is involved. Some people born with luck, others don't.
Anyone that claims different either never have a soul crushing bad run or is fooling themselves. I am smart enough to KNOW it doesn't make any rational sense what I am saying, but it is the truth. Put me on a $5 tournament, my good performance will speak loud and luck will help me. Put me on a life-changing tournament and I will make a soul reading read, make a hero call on the flop against a two-outer and that out will fall down at the River eliminating me.
Luck game. The only difference between Dices or roulette is that on those, there is no way to "play bad" and "bad players" can win. On poker, even if you are very lucky, you can't win if you are a bad player, that's the only difference between those games. Want a bad run to end, quit poker forever and save your self-esteem, don't think it is your fault. it is not.
Let's face it, it is a game of chance and luck, period.
Have you ever watched some major pro players streaming? Have you ever observed the way someone always have KK when they have AA, and how their Aces hold? Or how their AQ beats AK smoothly all the time?
It is a game of luck and some people born with it, others not. There is not another answer.
I am fully aware that this is not rational, but you will only see this as an absolute truth once it happens to you.
Positive variance still exists. I tried many times moving down in stakes once a severe crushing bad run came, more than once actually.
In those lowers limits I ran incredibly well and thought: "Well, finally the bad run is over" just to move up again and have an even worse bad run.
What I am saying is that some people have bad luck when it doesn't matter too much, against players with shortstacks in tournaments and when their stack couldn't be hurt too much, when it doesn't make a major difference, or even they have everytime they play a tournament below their buy-in, only to have a massive good run in the higher stakes. THIS IS ALSO LUCK, CHANCE AND POSITIVE VARIANCE WORKING IN FAVOR OF THEM.
I hate to bring it to you, but that its PURE LUCK. When variance works against you in lower limits and massive does the job for you in the higher stakes, this is luck.
So, bottom line, there is nothing you can do. No skill involved. You can take a 2 year break and it will be the same because poker hates you. And if you move down you will run good, waste your positive variance and be crushed again when big money is involved. Some people born with luck, others don't.
Anyone that claims different either never have a soul crushing bad run or is fooling themselves. I am smart enough to KNOW it doesn't make any rational sense what I am saying, but it is the truth. Put me on a $5 tournament, my good performance will speak loud and luck will help me. Put me on a life-changing tournament and I will make a soul reading read, make a hero call on the flop against a two-outer and that out will fall down at the River eliminating me.
Luck game. The only difference between Dices or roulette is that on those, there is no way to "play bad" and "bad players" can win. On poker, even if you are very lucky, you can't win if you are a bad player, that's the only difference between those games. Want a bad run to end, quit poker forever and save your self-esteem, don't think it is your fault. it is not.
Colbefc
Legend
Loyaler
How long is a piece of string? Being serious though a bad run can go on a long time you have 2 ways to get through it.
1: Take a break.
2: Play through it, only do this if you can keep playing your normal game, starting to play tight only makes it
worse, believe me I have done it.
Every player has bad runs, it is part of poker, we all find our own way to get through it.
One thing you should do is have good bankroll management so you can survive bad runs by going down in stakes which
means you lose more and as the stakes are lower you will be more likely to play your normal game.
1: Take a break.
2: Play through it, only do this if you can keep playing your normal game, starting to play tight only makes it
worse, believe me I have done it.
Every player has bad runs, it is part of poker, we all find our own way to get through it.
One thing you should do is have good bankroll management so you can survive bad runs by going down in stakes which
means you lose more and as the stakes are lower you will be more likely to play your normal game.
Academico
Rock Star
Bronze Level
Losing streaks in poker, as in any game of chance or skill, can vary in duration and severity. The length of a losing streak is influenced by several factors, including the intrinsic variability of the game, your playing style, the number of hands you play, and the quality of your opponents.
Nathan Williams
Poker Pro
Silver Level
Unfortunately they can last a lot longer than most people think. I have been through several 100,000 hand downswings in my career mass multi-tabling online poker. If you play live, this would be an entire year's worth of hands at least.
BOXING71
Visionary
Bronze Level
If someone's been on a 12-month losing spree and waved goodbye to 3 million dollars, you might start to wonder if they're playing with a deck of cards that's secretly rigged to hate them. But, let's put on our detective hats for a second. If this unlucky soul has been studying, improving, and strategizing all year, well, we might just have a really good player stuck in a "Shakespearean tragedy" of poker.
You see, poker can be a rollercoaster of emotions, and sometimes Lady Luck decides to take a sabbatical. So, whether they're a bad player or a poker martyr to the cause, only time will reveal the truth. As for my poker-loving heart, I'd say, "May the flop be with you, and the river be your ally!" 🃏💰
You see, poker can be a rollercoaster of emotions, and sometimes Lady Luck decides to take a sabbatical. So, whether they're a bad player or a poker martyr to the cause, only time will reveal the truth. As for my poker-loving heart, I'd say, "May the flop be with you, and the river be your ally!" 🃏💰
Gallarado777
Legend
Bronze Level
if he's been playing for 12 months and losing so much money, he'd better not play poker because he should lose so much and think he was just unlucky I don't need to think you need to really look at things or he's just playing for fun then I'll understand him, but if he seriously thinks he's just unlucky, this bad thinking sometimes you can lose for about a month but no more then you should win