How Long Can Bad Runs Last..

[Rumme1]

before it is probable that it isnt a bad run, but just a bad poker player ?

I ask this question because it seems everyone has a different opinion.

For example, lets say a poker player runs bad for 12 months and loses 3 million dollars in that time period. Would you say that is more of a bad player or a really bad long streak ?

 

[quick]

I think they can last a long time. I think they can also be interrupted with brief good sessions interspersed between soul crushing bad sessions.

That said, I started tracking all my sessions $$ in/out, length, format, tables a few months ago. Nothing happened for a while then I had some god mode runs then hit a small but sustained bad run that I feel like continues to persist (about 2 weeks or so).

But by tracking the above it's a little easier I think to cope with and accept. Some players look just at the number in their account (or roll account) and say "oh it's down X amount, I'm terrible/I'll never win again" instead of seeing the ups and downs and realizing sure the number in the roll might be down but they also might have had massive up sessions and overall are still winners.

Another thing is whether or not that bad run changes your play. You have to be mindful of that. Bad runs WILL happen. No matter what you do. But if you get impatient, make different moves then you normally would, or are hesitant to make calls you used to make while winning, you need to to assess whether or not the bad run is continuing because you're playing badly due to tilt OR just a bad run that keeps going.

Your hypothetical 3 million dollars? A player rolled enough to not care knows they could also win that all back and 10x that in the following 12 months. Or break even, or lose 3 million more.

 

[Rumme1]

Many pros will claim that bad runs, should only last a few weeks or months and if a player is losing continously for 6-12 months or longer , then it is the player and not a bad run. Im curious as to what others on this site, feel about that type of claim .

We can also apply the reverse logic and ask :

If a poker player wins good money { average salary of a middle class working job } for 2-3-4 years in a row, does that mean they are a good/great player, or is it possible to see a bad player go on a good luck winning streak that last that long ?

Would we all agree that at a typical home poker game , where you have 10 players { no pros } and the buy in is a minimum of $100 , that on average you will have { over the long run of 1 year or more } :

2 main big winners , 2 that win a little or break about even , 6 losers ?

 

[kbuinowski]

who knows

before it is probable that it isnt a bad run, but just a bad poker player ?

I ask this question because it seems everyone has a different opinion.

For example, lets say a poker player runs bad for 12 months and loses 3 million dollars in that time period. Would you say that is more of a bad player or a really bad long streak ?

some times you might have to take some time off from poker. I know I do here and there

 

[Rumme1]

some times you might have to take some time off from poker. I know I do here and there

I recently ran HORRIBLE for about 12 months...im talking about incredible losses to bad beat, week after week. In fact, here 2 bad beats that got me in 2 separate games within 10 days of each other :

omaha hi lo , pot limit . Flop comes 2-j-k rainbow . I got top set, my opponent has middle set . He bets in first position the pot { $60 } ..I just cold call, because I know he has trip jacks { hes a tight player] . Turn card is a 7 , he goes all in, I call ..river is jack...he makes 4 jacks to beat my kings full { 1 outer} ...cost me about $250

Then the next week , in 7 card stud :

I make kings full again on river , my opponent hits quad deuces ..cost me $200 .

I then quit poker for 3 months . I have now started back last week, and had 5 wins in a row ranging from $90 to $500 .

My point is this, BAD LUCK IN POKER, can run a year or more, even for solid disciplined players . Many pros will claim that everyone has the exact same amount of good luck and bad luck in poker, over the longterm. I completely disagree with this.

And on the other end of the spectrum...bad players can run really lucky, for a year or more. Ive seen something like this in my local home games. Two of those players were the biggest winners in our local games for over 6 months in a row.

These 2 players are so bad, they have to turn up their cards at the end of the hand, to make sure they didnt overlook their hand . In other words, other people at the table have to help them identify what hands they have . Also, neither of these 2 players understand anything about odds or calculating percentages on a flop to hit a flush draw, etc.

 

[plantendienst]

It depends on how big the buy ins are.. If you play 3 buy-in's for 1 millions, i consider it bad luck maybe.

For the bad luck or bad swing, it depends on how much buy-ins you used. If you used like 100 Buy ins in Turbo Tournements, you should end ITM (in the money) 20% of the time. Thats a good ratio..

 

[wilpinsi]

I believe that players who play high values tend to lose a lot and similarly recover quickly.
the fact Runar 12 months in the negative, does not mean it's a bad player.

 

[andreii955]

If a poker player wins good money { average salary of a middle class working job } for 2-3-4 years in a row, does that mean they are a good/great player, or is it possible to see a bad player go on a good luck winning streak that last that long

 

[jacknstax]

That's a bad player homeboy!

before it is probable that it isnt a bad run, but just a bad poker player ?

I ask this question because it seems everyone has a different opinion.

For example, lets say a poker player runs bad for 12 months and loses 3 million dollars in that time period. Would you say that is more of a bad player or a really bad long streak ?

 

[Nutcracker69]

Since November, but with caveats...

Currently about 11 days with nowhere near an adequate enough sample size to make definitive statements combined with too much play at zero or micro stakes. Disclaimer: There have been over 11 wins in those 11 days, but still an unprofitable run, so I'd say that's still a bad run.

 

[freeringo]

It's my opinion that doubt and fear will prolong a losing streak.

 

[Nutcracker69]

It's my opinion that doubt and fear will prolong a losing streak.

Probably. But I'm still GIIG... but seeing his hand when shown to figure out how I can lose, even if means the 10c and Jc on last two streets.... and THERE it is.

lol

 

[2tuzai]

How long ??? In theory can forever but... a lot of people blame variance then actually they are loosing or BE players they see only there AA or KK loosing PF to weaker hands etc and cry about that in forums they almost never will brag about there AK wining over AA . Bad run never comes alone it induce Tilt, Bad play. here is a great Poker variance calc. http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

And then u think u can be running worse trust me u can and u will so just be ready for that...

 

[Damian333]

Bad run

I keep getting bad beat all of the time, get my money in whilst miles ahead and get bad beat every single tim,.. wether it's all in preflop with AA and get beat by an idiot with 10-5 os...

This happens every single time... how do I get through it as I am pulling my hair out at the moment... I have tilted off some hands as well as it keeps happening...

Just the other day I had a fish call my reraise where I had AK and the flop comes 10 J Q and he pushed all in. He had 2d and 8d the Q on the flop was a d and then he got runner runner... never matters if I am way ahead--// suck out every big pot.

 

[Zer0-0uts]

Sik head bad beat syndrom

I have had some recent runs like this. If you are getting it in with hands like aces then you just have to chalk it up to the total random fluctuations of poker. Poker is a totally fickle mistress. If you looked at every single hand you have ever played on a spread sheet and could see how many times you have lost and won with each hand you have ever played you would definitely see that your good hands have won more than they have lost. You would also see that you too have had your share of wins with starting hands that statistically should have lost. It really all does go in circles.

One thing to consider is that a preflop flop shove with aces is nothing more than top pair at the time of the shove. Yes this hand is no doubt the best you can have preflop but as you have personally seen that can change drastically on each street to come. A winner can quickly become a loser.

What can you do to get over it? Step back and take a break from playing. Just walk away from the game for a bit. Let your head and all the bad beats clear out. Maybe read some strategy book and then come back with a new perspective.

I hope that helps you a bit. Good luck at the tables.

 

[ScottieDuncan]

several days to several weeks. After several days take a break for several days and see if that helps.

 

[Amdrius]

The answer to this question will be unambiguous only after analyzing the hands played by a professional. I personally know a person who has a downstreak last 10 months, with an optimal game level above the average. In poker everything is possible.

 

[BriceNice]

I had a streak where I didnt win a hand for 4 months! I went down in limits, became an absolute rock but still kept losing.

 

[Pauliefromgoodfellas]

before it is probable that it isnt a bad run, but just a bad poker player ?

I ask this question because it seems everyone has a different opinion.

For example, lets say a poker player runs bad for 12 months and loses 3 million dollars in that time period. Would you say that is more of a bad player or a really bad long streak ?

Not enough info. If a player is theoretically playing 24 tables at a time with even buy ins, auto topping up and all, then a 12 month losing streak is pretty bad. Does this mean they are a bad player? Hell no! At that high of stakes you could be a great player relative to the avg serious rec player and still lose. Less than intelligent/rational on the othe hand, yes. A terrible player could be smarter if they seek out even worse players and only play them.

Remember, Most people with that much to lose are either very successfulin poker or life. When it's the later they are called fish.

 

[cheeeer]

I once couldn't win any hand for 2 months. Any!! Even those which I folded. Then met girl who said the same. About same 2 months. Then I couldn't win yet half month.
Is it enough long??

 

[cheeeer]

Most people with that much to lose are either very successfulin poker or life. When it's the later they are called fish.

It reminds me of Gus Hansen when someone asked him: "You lost 2 millions at some game for last year. How do you evaluate it?"
Gus: "Really? Well, you need to take these money somewhere to lose it".

 

[atila1]

do you guys think is ok to lower buy ins if you think that you are in "bad run" even if yours bankroll alove you more lossing sessions?

 

[jimmy andres]

Hello I would say that he is a player who has not known how to move his chips, he has not analyzed anything on the tables and he has only played nonchalantly.

 

[pokerchick_xoxo]

Rule number one of poker from Ocean's Eleven, "Leave your emotions at the door in poker". I think you have to keep playing your game and re-evaluate after 3 months of "running bad".

 

[prinsipe]

Depends on how bad is poker play of a particular player and how unlucky he is.