Questions for the more advanced players

[diabloblanco]

If this is boring you don't post here, troll.

If I am wrong, then explain this. How do the chances of being dealt hand XX differ from deal #1 to deal #2. Should be simple. Same number of cards in the deck, same number of dealt cards (2), same number of players at the table.

93.762% of people on the internet pull statistics out of their ass

 

[bpazjr13]

"Not quite. If the odds of something happening are 10:1, the odds of it happening again are 100%. The odds of it happening consecutively are 10:1 x 10:1 = 100:1"

seems so simple to me to understand this, why dont you diablo?

I'll re-post this for you which explains everything

Knowledge for you:

The odds of drawing AA on any one hand is 1/221. It is a single event. The odds of drawing AA on the next hand are also 1/221, I agree. It is also a single event.

However, when you look at the odds of drawing AA 2 times in a row, then you are looking at a single event, that event being AA coming up 2 times in a row, and the odds of that is 1/221 times 1/221, or 1/48841. If you want to look at the single event of AA coming up 3 times in a row, the it is 1/10,793,861,

exactly what Four Dogs said but different numbers

http://www.thebankrollbuilder.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=4350#4350

check it out...another guy from his site knows what he is talking about

 

[diabloblanco]

First of all, the headline of that thread which you linked to is cute. I would love for you to say something like that to me from across the table. Second, I asked a question...simple enough, but from the moment you posted here you were condescending and rude, at which point I stopped listening to what you said. You may in fact, be right this time. However, you will forever be a dickhead. You're demeanor is no way to get respect from others or have them listen to your responses.

 

[SwgCrazy]

If I am wrong, then explain this. How do the chances of being dealt hand XX differ from deal #1 to deal #2. Should be simple. Same number of cards in the deck, same number of dealt cards (2), same number of players at the table.

93.762% of people on the internet pull statistics out of their ass

Yes, the odds of it happening ONCE is 1/221, but to find out how many times it'll happen twice in a row, you must multiply the number by itself (Ex: 221x221=48841 and that's how B got that number.

 

[bpazjr13]

thats bull shit diablo, i didnt say one thing to you until you said something about not having to be a genius . read over the posts and I said something too xdman or whoever and I care more than less that you think im a dickhead, i gave you a straight out answer to your question and you ignored it and you are so wrong still

go get an education in probabilities and not being an ignorant little punk...and I will say that to you here, across the table, or anywhere you please

yes...swing, we got that covered, thanks

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

Will play poker for food? Man u must be starving then. I'm not good at math but bpazjr13 explained it well enough. Lack of food must be affecting your brain.

 

[xdmanx007]

I think the point that needs made is the odds of getting dealt a certain hand back to back are irrelevant to the game! Only use would be if you were trying to establish some kind of cheating, or the legitamacy of a poker site by tracking a couple hundred thousand hands! The odds do not differ AT ALL as to which hand you get dealt from hand to hand. If they did that would mean that A. either the cards were not being properly shuffled B. That there is some kind of "pattern" to how cards are dealt(there isn't)! Here is a QOUTE "The cards dealt on any poker hand are, for practical purposes, completely random and independent of the cards dealt on any previous hand" Mason Malmuth Small Stakes Hold'em. Main problem is our brains are taught to recognise patterns it is at the core of how we learn. THERE IS NO PATTERN AS TO HOW CARDS ARE DEALT! Now posting in other forums about people being stupid when you are having a discussion means you are looking for people who share your incorrect ideas, trust me even if you think I am full of shit there are very intelligent people here. Only place you will find smarter posters is twoplustwo so unless you have a quote from that site keep it to yourself!

 

[SwgCrazy]

Whose sidde are you on XD? I'm confused, but I'm sure if you posted this on twoplustwo or whatever that site is, they would tell you the same me and Bp have said.

 

[bpazjr13]

great...glad you shared that with me....yea, we get that the two hands are separate events, but when you calculate getting AA back to back..that is a single event also, and the possiblities of getting AA, then AA is not the same as getting a single AA is what im trying to explain sort of

 

[ChuckTs]

Knowledge for you:

The odds of drawing AA on any one hand is 1/221. It is a single event. The odds of drawing AA on the next hand are also 1/221, I agree. It is also a single event.

However, when you look at the odds of drawing AA 2 times in a row, then you are looking at a single event, that event being AA coming up 2 times in a row, and the odds of that is 1/221 times 1/221, or 1/48841. If you want to look at the single event of AA coming up 3 times in a row, the it is 1/10,793,861,

perfectly put
if the you are talkin two events of the same probability,
then its just

[odds of the event happening]^[how many times the event happens in a row]

...im surprised i remember this... dropped data management a while ago

 

[wrestlenrun]

Having just taken a statistics class the odds of a second occurence of something is the odd of the occurence times the odds of the occurence. So just multiply the number of possible combinations of hands divided by the number of those which are pocket aces then square it

 

[ChuckTs]

I think the point that needs made is the odds of getting dealt a certain hand back to back are irrelevant to the game! Only use would be if you were trying to establish some kind of cheating, or the legitamacy of a poker site by tracking a couple hundred thousand hands! The odds do not differ AT ALL as to which hand you get dealt from hand to hand. If they did that would mean that A. either the cards were not being properly shuffled B. That there is some kind of "pattern" to how cards are dealt(there isn't)! Here is a QOUTE "The cards dealt on any poker hand are, for practical purposes, completely random and independent of the cards dealt on any previous hand" Mason Malmuth Small Stakes Hold'em. Main problem is our brains are taught to recognise patterns it is at the core of how we learn. THERE IS NO PATTERN AS TO HOW CARDS ARE DEALT! Now posting in other forums about people being stupid when you are having a discussion means you are looking for people who share your incorrect ideas, trust me even if you think I am full of shit there are very intelligent people here. Only place you will find smarter posters is twoplustwo so unless you have a quote from that site keep it to yourself!

dman; we are talkin about two hands IN A ROW; the odds are completely different than one two individual hands. The odds of getting any one hand in HE are completely the same. The odds of getting that same hand right after are those odds squared. Three times in a row is those odds cubed etc etc
thats why getting the same hands in a row are so improbable - say you have 0.1 percent chance of getting a hand. The prob. of getting that hand right after will be 0.01, and getting the same after that is 0.0001

 

[bpazjr13]

yo, diablo..where you at? you get some smart ppl in here knowing what they are talking about and you run off to sign up for a statistics class probably (55.3% chance)

 

[Four Dogs]

dman; we are talkin about two hands IN A ROW; the odds are completely different than one two individual hands. The odds of getting any one hand in HE are completely the same. The odds of getting that same hand right after are those odds squared. Three times in a row is those odds cubed etc etc
thats why getting the same hands in a row are so improbable - say you have 0.1 percent chance of getting a hand. The prob. of getting that hand right after will be 0.01, and getting the same after that is 0.0001

10 people fighting over 10 ways to say the same thing. That's why I love this site.

 

[xdmanx007]

I'm over it... Hopefully somebody gets the answer they are looking for. I was attempting an answer as it related to poker. Accept my answer or don't.

 

[diabloblanco]

Bpaz, I am far from a "little punk", as you stated. I am a grown man, married
with 2 kids, a wife, and good job. If you care to continue the insult fest do it via PM, you aren't an internet tough guy are you? Please say it aint so.

To the *ahem* that had nothing constructive to say (bubbasbestbabe), stop being a fcuking troll.

I think xdman is the only person that understands what point I was trying to get at. I am done with this whole fiasco though, unless someone else starts barking, I'm not posting in this thread again. Good riddance.

 

[Four Dogs]

Bark!
I think it's you who doesn't understand. I don't know how many more ways the math can be explained to you.

 

[icepari]

icepari

This is not right.When you flip a coin you have 50/50 chance .But the coin can end up on one side like 400 times in a row.When you play roulette and lets say it comes number 1.The chance to be number 1 next time the roullete spins is the same CAUSE CARDS ROULETES AND ALL THIS STUFF DON`T HAVE MEMORY.They don`t know if you were dealt AA 1-2-or 500 times in a row.Just for example i got Qc7s 3 times in a row in a live game .This is something quite normal if you think about getting AA two times in a row as one it`s not right. I can say i look as one to getting A2 and then 23 as one and the chance to guess two consecutive hands will always be the same no matter AA(two times ) AK;AQ or any other .

 

[bpazjr13]

quite normal getting Qc 7s three times in a row? are you kidding?

icepari..you another diablo? getting Qc7s three times in a row is 2,331,473,976:1 chance of happening (that's 2.3 billion to 1) and you think that is the same as getting AA 3 times in a row (which is 10.8 million to 1) ? if so, i have no clue how you think

you flip a coin...1/2 time it lands on head...to get 2 heads in a row it is 1/4 to get 3 times in a row it is 1/8 and so on. you need to join diablo is the stats 101 class

diablo, i called you an "ignorant little punk" . ignorant being the main word, because you see the answer right in front of you to your question and you still think you are correct in whatever theory you came up with.. that's nice that you have a wife and kids...i have a nice girl friend and possibly some kids from my college days ... i am a normal and rational person until "ignorant little punks" like yourself think your so damn smart and figured out a whole new way of thinking and can't admit when you are WRONG as all ****ing hell. yea..PM me, we'll get together and have a beer...cuz im just an internet tough guy bro.

 

[diabloblanco]

Aw, c'mon, you don't mean that thing you said about the beer. You don't want to meet me. Seriously, stop the madness. Go away.

 

[bpazjr13]

thats the first thing i've seen you get right....nice work

 

[diabloblanco]

Aw, c'mon, you don't mean that thing you said about the beer. You don't want to meet me. Seriously, stop the madness. Go away.
You've got a hell of a set of bollocks on you while you're in front of that keyboard boy.

I'm done with you, where's the ignore button around here...

Edit: you're a douche, I clearly said I would admit I was wrong when I was confident that I was. I, as of right now, am not. Especially since the one person skwaking is an asshat like you.

 

[bpazjr13]

wow...whose the internet tough guy now? im really intimidated by your half ass attempt to insult me, yea i sure am a douche.....im 100% confident you're a ****ing pole smoker whose wife and children hide the fact the you practice dildonics with your 13 year old paper boy and his dog on the weekends when you tell your family you are going to "play poker for food" .

Edit: (whatever the hell you were trying to prove with that lame excuse for some kind of intelligent P.S.) just let me know when you want me to take your food money at the poker tables..then we'll see who the douche is pal.

 

[diabloblanco]

OMG, I was just looking over some old posts of Mr. Statistics to get a feel for how knowledgeable he really is and 2 things lept off the page. First, Mr. Statistics bpazjr, told another player in a thread called "stuck on duh" that the odds of being dealt AA were 2.35 million to 1. Strange. Second, if anyone cares to take the time, he has a habit of talking down to people and generally being as ass when he comments in threads. Bpazjr, you are a schmuck that now has zero credibility in my opinion. Winning this particular argument for you, will be like winning the gold medal at the Special Olympics, when its over, you're still retarded.

 

[Four Dogs]

This is not right.When you flip a coin you have 50/50 chance .But the coin can end up on one side like 400 times in a row.When you play roulette and lets say it comes number 1.The chance to be number 1 next time the roullete spins is the same CAUSE CARDS ROULETES AND ALL THIS STUFF DON`T HAVE MEMORY.They don`t know if you were dealt AA 1-2-or 500 times in a row.Just for example i got Qc7s 3 times in a row in a live game .This is something quite normal if you think about getting AA two times in a row as one it`s not right. I can say i look as one to getting A2 and then 23 as one and the chance to guess two consecutive hands will always be the same no matter AA(two times ) AK;AQ or any other .

Again, nope. Getting AK twice in a row is almost twice as likely as AA. There are 6 ways to make a single pair. Lets use Aces. Ac-As, Ac-Ah, Ac-Ad, As-Ah, As-Ad, Ah-Ad. There are 16 ways to make 2 unpaired cards Ac-Kc,Ks,Kh,Kd + Ad-Kc,Ks,Kh,Kd +
Ah-Kc,Ks,Kh,Kd + Ac-Kc,Ks,Kh,Kd + As-Kc,Ks,Kh,Kd.
So, consecutive AA = 1/221 * 1/221 = 1/48841, consecutive AK = 1/166 * 1/166 = 1/27474
And this my friends is my crowning achievement as my dryest most boring post to date. And that's saying alot.