Polished Poker Vol. I Study Group

[rhombus]

The W$SD% is looking a bit high. John do you have any comments on that?

according to http://www.myholdempokertips.com/hud-stats-wtsd-won-money-at-showdown

You are a NIT Bitch

W$SD is around 50-60% for most players. It will be higher for tighter players and lower for looser ones. Don’t forget that it actually shows the % of won pots but not how much money is won – a player win W$SD above 50 is not necessarily a winning one.

 

[rhombus]

Last couple of days had 3 hands where I flopped big draws. Previously I would have just got it in on the flop to gain as much Fold equity as possible but decide on each hand to play it differently.

Just wondering if best to Shove when OOP, and take the free card and let them keep betting when In position

Hand 1 - OOP Do i just shove the Flop

poker stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $10 (100 bb)
Hero (BB): $10 (100 bb)
UTG: $26.36 (263.6 bb)
MP: $10 (100 bb)
CO: $24.48 (244.8 bb)
BTN: $8.67 (86.7 bb) 28/24 Ag% 29 87 Hands

Preflop: Hero is BB with A

T

UTG raises to $0.35, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.35, SB folds, Hero calls $0.25

Flop: ($1.10) J

5

3

(3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.45, BTN raises to $1.70, Hero calls $1.70, UTG folds

Turn: ($4.95) 8

(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.69, Hero calls $2.69

River: ($10.33) 6

(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Results: $10.33 pot ($0.46 rake)
Final Board: J

5

3

8

6

Hero showed A

T

and lost (-$4.74 net)
BTN showed K

K

and won $9.87 ($5.13 net)

What the Hell is he doing with KK here.

Hand 2 - Seems straightforward, getting odds each time
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $23.76 (237.6 bb) 50/0 Ag 75% 5 Hands
BB: $10.20 (102 bb)
UTG: $8.70 (87 bb)
MP: $13.31 (133.1 bb)
Hero (CO): $11.21 (112.1 bb)
BTN: $7.84 (78.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6

9

2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN folds, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.90) 7

4

3

(3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.60, SB raises to $1.50, BB folds, Hero calls $0.90

Turn: ($3.90) A

(2 players)
SB bets $2, Hero calls $2

River: ($7.90) 5

(2 players)
SB bets $1.50, Hero raises to $5.71, SB calls $4.21

Results: $19.32 pot ($0.87 rake)
Final Board: 7

4

3

A

5

SB mucked 3

3

and lost (-$9.51 net)
Hero showed 6

9

and won $18.45 ($8.94 net)

Hand 3- Normally would have just shoved and even if they have KK AA, Im in good shape but decided to play in position. WOuld have called Turn if it hadnt paired
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $9.85 (98.5 bb)26/19 AG 27% 44 Hands
BB: $13.50 (135 bb)
Hero (UTG): $10.95 (109.5 bb)
MP: $18.02 (180.2 bb)
CO: $7.93 (79.3 bb)
BTN: $10.97 (109.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q

J

Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, SB raises to $0.50, BB folds, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($1.10) 2

Q

9

(2 players)
SB bets $1.05, Hero calls $1.05

Turn: ($3.20) 2

(2 players)
SB bets $3.06, Hero folds

Results: $3.20 pot ($0.14 rake)
Final Board: 2

Q

9

2

SB mucked and won $3.06 ($1.51 net)
Hero mucked Q

J

and lost (-$1.55 net)

 

[Figaroo2]

Preflop: Hero is BB with A

T

UTG raises to $0.35, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.35, SB folds, Hero calls $0.25

Flop: ($1.10) J

5

3

(3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.45, BTN raises to $1.70, Hero calls $1.70, UTG folds

Turn: ($4.95) 8

(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.69, Hero calls $2.69

I'm folding here on the turn, you aren't quite getting the right odds 2.8-1 with 9 outs, the Ace outs aren't always clean here if he has something like AJ and the draw is too obvious to have any implied odds.
As it was he checked behind on he end so he was never betting or calling much if the flush card falls

**************************************
Preflop: Hero is CO with 6

9

2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN folds, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.90) 7

4

3

(3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.60, SB raises to $1.50, BB folds, Hero calls $0.90

Turn: ($3.90) A

(2 players)
SB bets $2, Hero calls $2

Again I don't agree that you are getting the right odds here on the turn, 12 dirty outs = 24% you are only getting just under 3-1 not quite enough to break even and he could still have a higher flush draw, something like A2hh calls in the blinds here.

*************************************************
Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q

J

Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, SB raises to $0.50, BB folds, Hero calls $0.20
Flop: ($1.10) 2

Q

9

(2 players)
SB bets $1.05, Hero calls $1.05
Turn: ($3.20) 2

(2 players)
SB bets $3.06, Hero folds

The stinky little min raise pre flop is often the high pair. Apart from raising on the flop not a lot you can do.
I think a raise is right here on the flop as if he just calls the flop he's likely checking the turn to you with a high pair after being raised and then you get to see the river for free!

 

[John A]

I know I haven't been playing well particularly last week. I got into a terribly passive fit and fold mentality.
I can tell by my redline when I'm falling back into that poor style of playing. Part of it is playing tired again after having some really tough weeks at work and then just trying to knock off the daily pyramid bonus on Stars with as little effort as possible.
I should be resting and studying and not playing so much at the moment.

I had a short sweat with John yesterday that jolted me out of it a bit he got me raising and taking it down prior to the river a bit more. I do benefit from having some one watch my play so don't be shy in shouting me up on skype.

June results by site. This is virtually all FR. It doesn't look too bad but I was $200 up after 12k of hands and have since stalled and got nowhere,
This 6% gap between vpip and pfr is still there, cannot shift it. Still have to flat call less and 3 bet more, I've been telling myself this for nearly 2 years now, why isn't it sinking in?
The W$SD% is looking a bit high. John do you have any comments on that?

You just have to think of your play in terms of being the highest EV play, and not whether something is aggressive or more passive. Just continue to focus on what is going to net the longest term profit here. Take all the emotion and everything you can out of the play and think about the EV.

And yes, it's high because you're folding and giving up on the best hand too often. I think you're aware of that. So we just have to get you into a space where you're confident on when you should be calling down.

I like yelling at your on skype... it's fun, we need to do it more. lol

 

[Figaroo2]

passive v aggressive

I like yelling at you on skype... it's fun, we need to do it more. lol

lol thanks BRING it ON

I still seeking the correct balance for ME.

I actually feel like I'm picking off a ton of bluffs on the river at the moment in the small to medium pots.
If I have settled into a passive session and the tone has been set then regs just try to 3bet and barrel me off my hand all the time. My 4bet bluffs get a ton respect.

As you saw I often give up against an aggressive reg very early in a hand rather than call call guess.
The big downside is everyone folds as soon as I start betting with a value hand, conversely upside to that is nearly all of my own bluffs and barrels work.
This leads to a dynamic where I win a lot of small to medium pots but am only winning and losing full stacks with coolers.

The two times I got aggressive yesterday 3betting loose openers I unfortunately ran into the nuts AKs v AA and AJ v TT on a 89T flop.
Very aggressive play doesn't suit me, it's too swingy and leads to tilt and mistakes getting aggro in the wrong spots.

I did note an aggro whale picked up about 7bi on a 10nl table the other night. It leads to fun tables watching other players adjust badly and stacking off really light. One reg completely lost it and handed over at least 4 stacks. Unfortunately the whale was 4 to my left and I struggled to get into the hands.

 

[John A]

lol thanks BRING it ON

I still seeking the correct balance for ME.

Everyone is going to have a slightly different style. Whether you execute a play or not though, I'd like you to be able to recognize those profitable raising, or calling spots. And if you don't raise, have a good reason why and how you're planning on working that into your game. But number one is making sure you're seeing all of the spots, which you seem to be picking up more.

I actually feel like I'm picking off a ton of bluffs on the river at the moment in the small to medium pots.
If I have settled into a passive session and the tone has been set then regs just try to 3bet and barrel me off my hand all the time. My 4bet bluffs get a ton respect.

Yeah, I think you're finding bluffs more. I don't want you leveling yourself too much at these stakes, and that's good that you're trying to settle into a plan for yourself. Your game is rounding out nicely.

Sorry that I've been busy these last couple of weeks. I'll get back on track here shortly guys, just lots going on.

I think we should do some more work on bet sizing. There's a lot on the topic, and I think it's one of the easier things to patch up and get better on to see more profits quickly. I think most of the guys in this thread have improved a lot in this area. There's still more that can be done though.

 

[rhombus]

I think we should do some more work on bet sizing. There's a lot on the topic, and I think it's one of the easier things to patch up and get better on to see more profits quickly. I think most of the guys in this thread have improved a lot in this area. There's still more that can be done though.

Good idea worst one for me is the crossover between extracting max value and minimising when they have it (pot control). Need to find a balance in my sizings


PS What happened to the level 2 level 3 thinking

 

[Figaroo2]

Terrible mistake, all in before I realised the consequences of the Q pairing.

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

SB: $9.33 (93.3 bb)
BB: $7.63 (76.3 bb)
UTG+2: $10.10 (101 bb)
MP1: $10.41 (104.1 bb)
MP2: $9.95 (99.5 bb)
MP3: $4.14 (41.4 bb)
CO: $10 (100 bb)
Hero (BTN): $10 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 9

9

UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.30, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.30, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($1.20) 9

Q

3

(4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 bets $0.88, Hero calls $0.88, 2 folds

Turn: ($2.96) 3

(2 players)
MP1 bets $2.10, Hero calls $2.10

River: ($7.16) Q

(2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $6.72 and is all-in, MP1 calls $6.72

Results: $20.60 pot ($0.93 rake)
Final Board: 9

Q

3

3

Q

MP1 showed Q

A

and won $19.67 ($9.67 net)
Hero showed 9

9

and lost (-$10 net)

 

[rhombus]

Terrible mistake, all in before I realised the consequences of the Q pairing.

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

SB: $9.33 (93.3 bb)
BB: $7.63 (76.3 bb)
UTG+2: $10.10 (101 bb)
MP1: $10.41 (104.1 bb)
MP2: $9.95 (99.5 bb)
MP3: $4.14 (41.4 bb)
CO: $10 (100 bb)
Hero (BTN): $10 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 9

9

UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.30, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.30, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($1.20) 9

Q

3

(4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 bets $0.88, Hero calls $0.88, 2 folds

Turn: ($2.96) 3

(2 players)
MP1 bets $2.10, Hero calls $2.10

River: ($7.16) Q

(2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $6.72 and is all-in, MP1 calls $6.72

Results: $20.60 pot ($0.93 rake)
Final Board: 9

Q

3

3

Q

MP1 showed Q

A

and won $19.67 ($9.67 net)
Hero showed 9

9

and lost (-$10 net)

sick river made worse with the mistake
Were you playing alot of tables at the time or maybe just lost concentration ??

 

[rhombus]

Just managed to book my fist win for a few days as Ive been playing terrible and cant even put it down to running bad although have tilted a couple of times which I'm more disappointed with.

Had a hand earlier with AK OOP and just wondering whether I played it too passively.

AS it was only single raised pot with a flush draw on the flop and I didn't have a heart in my hand, I decided to go to showdown mode and maybe pick off a bluff or maybe get 1 value bet on on the river.

Is it best to CBET as normal and when called go into showdown mode or Check FLop and if they check behind delay CBET Turn maybe??

I actually put him on a weaker Ace, maybe a hand like 9T, betting for thin value or drawing for a flush draw or a hand like TJ.

Once all draws missed, I think the call on river was ok as only losing to 2 pair or flopped set


Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $45.41 (454.1 bb)
BB: $3.82 (38.2 bb)
Hero (UTG): $11.92 (119.2 bb)
MP: $7.56 (75.6 bb)
CO: $15.95 (159.5 bb)
BTN: $13.18 (131.8 bb) 22/11 100AG% but only 9 hands

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K

A

Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.75) A

2

9

(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.75) 8

(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.30, Hero calls $1.30

River: ($4.35) 4

(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.10, Hero calls $2.10

Results: $8.55 pot ($0.38 rake)
Final Board: A

2

9

8

4

Hero mucked K

A

and lost (-$4.20 net)
BTN showed 4

4

and won $8.17 ($3.97 net)

 

[Figaroo2]

Should we raise all in on the turn here?

Well no one around to sweat with so I took a shot at 50nl FR on 888 as I noticed a player I had previously labelled a fish on this table.

Here unfortunately we tangle with the table big stack in a tough spot turn and river after flopping top set.

Pacific, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

SB: $51.07 (102.1 bb)
BB: $56.07 (112.1 bb)
UTG+2: $54.93 (109.9 bb)
Hero (MP1): $55.12 (110.2 bb)
MP2: $27.94 (55.9 bb)
MP3: $50 (100 bb)
CO: $67.28 (134.6 bb)
BTN: $149.27 (298.5 bb) VPIP: 22, PFR: 13, 3B: 4, AF: 0.8, Hands: 126

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K

K

UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 3 folds, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.75) K

8

Q

(2 players)
Hero bets $2.81, BTN calls $2.81

Turn: ($9.37) 9

(2 players)
Hero bets $4.68, BTN raises to $16.74, Hero calls $12.06
Clearly as he's not been that aggressive, he has something here.

River: ($42.85) 5

(2 players)

Yuk flush gets there, JT already did, Check call? Check fold? bet fold?
We have $34 behind, as per the title maybe in hindsight just shoving the turn looks best

 

[TimovieMan]

@ rhombus: I'm pretty much c-betting this flop 100% of the time, so why wouldn't I do it when I actually have TPTK?
Since we only have 9 hands on him, I'm c-betting the turn as well, and inducing on the river as my standard play.


@ Figaroo2: If we're betting, we're shoving, and I'd hate to turn our hand into a bluff, so I'm definitely checking and deciding based on his sizing. It's a really tough spot, and I doubt I'd be capable of folding here, but check/fold is probably the best line...


Here's one I'd like some feedback on. Is this a good fold, or far too nitty?

I was running at 4/4/0 100% AFq after 27 hands (didn't get many good cards).
Villain was running at 26/26/0 0% AFq after 27 hands, with 100% Fold to 3-bet preflop (in just 4 instances).
I figured if he called my flop bet, he'd had to have had the Ac or at least Kx, and given preflop tightness when facing a 3-bet and postflop passivity (again, small sample size), I mainly put him on a K or made flush once he bets with that sizing, and thus I folded.

Too nitty? Or correct?

partypoker - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 101 BB (VPIP: 25.93, PFR: 25.93, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
BTN: 118.5 BB (VPIP: 38.46, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 13)
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 85 BB (VPIP: 26.92, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
UTG: 35.5 BB (VPIP: 30.77, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
MP: 191.75 BB (VPIP: 73.68, PFR: 26.32, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:diamond: A:spade:

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, CO calls 6 BB

Flop: (19 BB, 2 players) K:club: J:club: 7:club:
Hero bets 15 BB, CO calls 15 BB

Turn: (49 BB, 2 players) K:diamond:
Hero checks, CO bets 31 BB, fold

CO wins 77.75 BB

 

[Figaroo2]

Is it best to CBET as normal and when called go into showdown mode or Check FLop and if they check behind delay CBET Turn maybe??

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
SB: $45.41 (454.1 bb)
BB: $3.82 (38.2 bb)
Hero (UTG): $11.92 (119.2 bb)
MP: $7.56 (75.6 bb)
CO: $15.95 (159.5 bb)
BTN: $13.18 (131.8 bb) 22/11 100AG% but only 9 hands

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K

A

Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.75) A

2

9

(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.75) 8

(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.30, Hero calls $1.30

River: ($4.35) 4

(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.10, Hero calls $2.10

Results: $8.55 pot ($0.38 rake)
Final Board: A

2

9

8

4

Hero mucked K

A

and lost (-$4.20 net)
BTN showed 4

4

and won $8.17 ($3.97 net)

Yes I'd bet this flop for value, especially if you are putting him on a weaker ace. I'm looking for two streets minimum here and there is a flush draw to charge.
There is no need to get fancy/balanced on that flop.

 

[Figaroo2]

Here's one I'd like some feedback on. Is this a good fold, or far too nitty?
Too nitty? Or correct?

partypoker - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

CO: 101 BB (VPIP: 25.93, PFR: 25.93, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
BTN: 118.5 BB (VPIP: 38.46, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 13)
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 85 BB (VPIP: 26.92, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
UTG: 35.5 BB (VPIP: 30.77, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
MP: 191.75 BB (VPIP: 73.68, PFR: 26.32, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♦ A♠

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, CO calls 6 BB

Flop: (19 BB, 2 players) K♣ J♣ 7♣
Hero bets 15 BB, CO calls 15 BB

Turn: (49 BB, 2 players) K♦
Hero checks, CO bets 31 BB, fold

CO wins 77.75 BB

This fold looks OK to me and at the right point as well, if we call this turn we are probably facing a big river bet most of the time.

 

[rhombus]

Yes I'd bet this flop for value, especially if you are putting him on a weaker ace. I'm looking for two streets minimum here and there is a flush draw to charge.
There is no need to get fancy/balanced on that flop.

Thats what I usually do but getting check raised so much at the moment and think I've been watching too much Twitch where they seem to pot contol alot of the time.

 

[rhombus]

This one from just awhile ago, I did CBET and once called with a flush draw on the board, thought it better to check Turn and induce if none of draws came in but it backfired lol

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $10.20 (102 bb)22/11 AG 17% 11 hands
Hero (BB): $10 (100 bb)
UTG: $10.35 (103.5 bb)
MP: $11.49 (114.9 bb)
CO: $13.14 (131.4 bb)
BTN: $10 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K

Q

4 folds, SB raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $1, SB calls $0.70

Flop: ($2) 3

6

K

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.20, SB calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.40) 8

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($4.40) J

(2 players)
SB bets $2.90, Hero calls $2.90

Results: $10.20 pot ($0.46 rake)
Final Board: 3

6

K

8

J

SB showed J

K

and won $9.74 ($4.64 net)
Hero mucked K

Q

and lost (-$5.10 net)

 

[Figaroo2]

This one from just awhile ago, I did CBET and once called with a flush draw on the board, thought it better to check Turn and induce if none of draws came in but it backfired lol

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

SB: $10.20 (102 bb)22/11 AG 17% 11 hands
Hero (BB): $10 (100 bb)
UTG: $10.35 (103.5 bb)
MP: $11.49 (114.9 bb)
CO: $13.14 (131.4 bb)
BTN: $10 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K

Q

4 folds, SB raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $1, SB calls $0.70

Flop: ($2) 3

6

K

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.20, SB calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.40) 8

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($4.40) J

(2 players)
SB bets $2.90, Hero calls $2.90

Results: $10.20 pot ($0.46 rake)
Final Board: 3

6

K

8

J

SB showed J

K

and won $9.74 ($4.64 net)
Hero mucked K

Q

and lost (-$5.10 net)

Looks like you played it ok, not a good looking table go find some fishy stacks

 

[John A]

This one from just awhile ago, I did CBET and once called with a flush draw on the board, thought it better to check Turn and induce if none of draws came in but it backfired lol

Just keep firing. It's a BvB spot and you're going to get called down lighter even if it's 3-bet. Keep in mind he's probably 4-betting AK a huge % of the time, so you're way ahead. So just keep getting it in there. If he's checking and calling on that texture and not CR or doing something else on the turn, then you're unlikely to get him bluffing on the river. Just fire for value when you have the best hand.

 

[Figaroo2]

John please can you go back a page and look at this 50nl hand for me
#4336

28th June 2016
Thanks

 

[John A]

Well no one around to sweat with so I took a shot at 50nl FR on 888 as I noticed a player I had previously labelled a fish on this table.

Here unfortunately we tangle with the table big stack in a tough spot turn and river after flopping top set.

Pacific, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

SB: $51.07 (102.1 bb)
BB: $56.07 (112.1 bb)
UTG+2: $54.93 (109.9 bb)
Hero (MP1): $55.12 (110.2 bb)
MP2: $27.94 (55.9 bb)
MP3: $50 (100 bb)
CO: $67.28 (134.6 bb)
BTN: $149.27 (298.5 bb) VPIP: 22, PFR: 13, 3B: 4, AF: 0.8, Hands: 126

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K

K

UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 3 folds, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.75) K

8

Q

(2 players)
Hero bets $2.81, BTN calls $2.81

Turn: ($9.37) 9

(2 players)
Hero bets $4.68, BTN raises to $16.74, Hero calls $12.06
Clearly as he's not been that aggressive, he has something here.

River: ($42.85) 5

(2 players)

Yuk flush gets there, JT already did, Check call? Check fold? bet fold?
We have $34 behind, as per the title maybe in hindsight just shoving the turn looks best

The only thing that complicates this hand is that you underbet the turn. Which even for bad players could be seen as weak and a steal opportunity. If we play count the combos, it's pretty close correct? JT, 88, QQ, 99, KQ. 10 combos you beat, 16 you don't. Maybe we give him a couple of bluffing hands, even though is ubber passive, the turn under bet probably adds at least a couple in there, especially hands like AsTs. So all things considered it's a narrow turn jam simply because you're in the same spot on the river no matter what. The only thing you're happy about is a paired board. Everything else you'll be getting the correct price to check/call and you'll miss value when he is semi-bluffing.

 

[Figaroo2]

John we lose to JT on the turn that's why I only made it half pot. With his stats he's going to have some JT more likely suited in his button range.
Just for a fleeting moment I thought about shoving the turn but if he had JT I'd feel pretty silly.
So what is your preferred sizing on the turn? If it was anything lower than a 9 I'd have made it 70-75% around $7.20 to continue charging the spade/straight draws.

 

[John A]

John we lose to JT on the turn that's why I only made it half pot. With his stats he's going to have some JT more likely suited in his button range.
Just for a fleeting moment I thought about shoving the turn but if he had JT I'd feel pretty silly.
So what is your preferred sizing on the turn? If it was anything lower than a 9 I'd have made it 70-75% around $7.20 to continue charging the spade/straight draws.

Ya, I'm pretty sure I said that in my analysis. My question to you is, if you just call the turn, and the river bricks, are you c/fing? You'd basically have to put him on only one hand and fold the turn to get away from this hand, which I don't think you can do. And if you're planning on c/fing the river, you might as well fold the turn (but you shouldn't). He can still be shoving worse for value and you're getting the correct price to call.

 

[John A]

So here's my event #25 recap of the wsop $2500 no-limit buy-in. Some interesting hands...

http://www.acepokersolutions.com/poker-blog/pokerhands/my-wsop-event-25-2500-no-limit-holdem/

 

[TimovieMan]

The only thing that complicates this hand is that you underbet the turn. Which even for bad players could be seen as weak and a steal opportunity.

Isn't that the reverse of what you were saying in your recent "picking off bluffs / making hero calls" blog, where an increase in bet sizing on the turn indicated a higher chance of villain being full of it?

When I'm not bothering with balancing my play (and most of the time I'm not vs my opponents), then a 2/3-3/4 flop c-bet and 1/2 turn c-bet is one of my stronger moves...

Or am I missing something?

 

[John A]

Isn't that the reverse of what you were saying in your recent "picking off bluffs / making hero calls" blog, where an increase in bet sizing on the turn indicated a higher chance of villain being full of it?

When I'm not bothering with balancing my play (and most of the time I'm not vs my opponents), then a 2/3-3/4 flop c-bet and 1/2 turn c-bet is one of my stronger moves...

Or am I missing something?

If someone bets much less on the turn then the flop it can mean they are either strong (and really want a call) or weak (not sure about their hand and not wanting to invest a lot). In this case going from 3/4ths on the flop to 1/2 on the turn in this spot screams, "I'm concerned about my hand." And hero really shouldn't be.

But that brings up a good side point though Tim. Fig should be value betting the turn larger based on his game style. Since he's not doubling or tripling a lot, instead of making 1/2 or smaller turn bets, he needs to just be going for pure larger value on those streets. We see a lot of hands where he's betting pretty weak on the turn, and he's losing a good amount of EV because of it.

Any ways, thanks for sharing the hand Fig. It's a crap spot to be in.